Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[winterof79]

Nice negative tilt to the trough on the GEFS mean at 156z,im going Tuesday Wednesday milder then cold advancing south

Which then disrupts over us

Edited January 23, 2021 by winterof79

[Spah1]

18 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Hey mate I think all of the Midlands is in the firing line..hence the yellow warning..Tell the missus your working tomorrow and have a snow day Seriously folks for all of those who have yet to witness it,I really do hope that Sunday puts that right for you. Moving forward im starting to doubt this mild spell,and most definitely its duration..More Snow events incoming could be a decent call.

The warning states the regions most at risk, Gloucester etc. 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

28 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I’d stick with higher res models. Most still go for Cotsworlds getting the most with it not going much further north / east than Milton Keynes area 

Most? 

Im not sure why your saying that because it's the only model that's south like that  

Most take it up into the mids widely 

[winterof79]

Somethings going on over the polar region but its way off

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Most? 

Im not sure why your saying that because it's the only model that's south like that  

Most take it up into the mids widely 

MO still has it much further south than GFS and Harmonie. 

[Updated_Weather]

Very interesting

[sheikhy]

20 minutes ago, ML1996 said:

NMM 2km has it very far north, with some snow getting up to the southern edge of South Yorkshire. Definitely seems like it's going to be a case of radar watching for pretty much everyone.

Was the same on the 06z run as well!!

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

Very interesting

Is that the latest update!!cos if it is thats pushed much further north!!

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Is that the latest update!!cos if it is thats pushed much further north!!

Yes it’s the latest

[Battleground Snow]

To reduce my "cold bias" the para isn't very good for cold up to day 10. It may improve further on.

I'm hoping the Gfs Is wrong with its slower MJO progression into 7 and the ECM is nearer the mark.

Does anyone know if we can view the gem and ukmo mjo plots anywhere?

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Cloud 10]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

To reduce my "cold bias" the para isn't very good for cold up to day 10. It may improve further on.

I'm hoping the Gfs Is wrong with its slower MJO progression into 7 and the ECM is nearer the mark.

Do anyone know if we can view the gem and ukmo mjo plots anywhere?

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is that the latest update!!cos if it is thats pushed much further north!!

I think some on here are trying to nail it down to the nearest mile mate Remember the December 2017 snow event for the Midlands? That event 24hrs earlier was nearly 100 mile further North! In most cases corrections are Southwards as the clock ticks down. Its possible this feature may grind to a halt! I would be very surprised though if this system reached the North....anyway they've had enough recently...dont be greedy guys...

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Cloud 10 said:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Thanks, but the gem hasn't updated since December on there and you can't even click the ukmet anymore.

[beefy201]

8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is that the latest update!!cos if it is thats pushed much further north!!

Did say it would over in midlands thread

[Cloud 10]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Thanks, but the gem hasn't updated since December on there and you can't even click the ukmet anymore.

 

Yeah,just noticed that.

UKmet being stingy with data again.

[bluearmy]

You would expect both the gfs and gfsp to both bring a bfte by mid feb 

[Cloud 10]

Well hello member 18.

 

 

 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

You would expect both the gfs and gfsp to both bring a bfte by mid feb 

The para certainly had a fast turnaround at end! Seems a strong singal... Just hope it doesn't get pushed back

[Frosty.]

Wow..I can’t keep up, things were much quieter in 2005.....anyhoo...back to the present....Ensembles are fickle ain’t they?..we have either very cold or mild for early Feb and everything in between....but this is only the GEFS 12z...there’s plenty of other output too consider?...anyway, I’m not feeling too good so I think I’ll retire early this evening..unless we see another ECM stonker like the 0z!?...bye gang.

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Captain Shortwave]

GEM, variation on the same idea.

 

That isn’t a normal westerly pattern, even if initially the heights are very weak. Turns cold from the north east at the end of the run as the heights strengthen to the north.

[Decemberof2010]

P18 is out to 276h and WOW

 

[wellington boot]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Top post Tamara..but I can't help but notice how when others make reference to positive cold signals,you always seem to refer to them as having a cold bias for there reasoning behind it. The signals are mixed and I would say we have a range of outcomes possible. For me as long as the Vortex remains in tatters we are gonna be remaining at the party. 

It is true though isn't it? Cold bias informs or influences a lot of thinking and a lot of posts on here - and I've been part of that. I think a degree of sympathy is warranted. If you have so many people all desperately wanting one outcome, this isn't just to be expected but is absolutely inevitable.

But we still ought to aspire to more... In any case, those who watch or post year round will have noticed just how accurately @Tamara - with her marvelously dispassionate, almost robotic style - routinely calls it. 

[Radiating Dendrite]

1 minute ago, wellington boot said:

It is true though isn't it? Cold bias informs or influences a lot of thinking and a lot of posts on here - and I've been part of that. I think a degree of sympathy is warranted. If you have so many people all desperately wanting one outcome, this isn't just to be expected but is absolutely inevitable.

But we still ought to aspire to more... In any case, those who watch or post year round will have noticed just how accurately @Tamara - with her marvelously dispassionate, almost robotic style - routinely calls it. 

I usually find she sits on the fence like the pros in all honesty. I don't doubt her knowledge, but I'm all for people sticking their neck on the line and making a big call in plain English

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I usually find she sits on the fence like the pros in all honesty. I don't doubt her knowledge, but I'm all for people sticking their neck on the line and making a big call in plain English

On the contrary, she does precisely what the data suggest one should do. After all, how many dare-devil Snowmageddon 'forecasts' have come to nothing . . . almost all of them?

Hey, all I want is some kind of handle on what the weather might do . . . By the way, Ice Cold in Alex was a great movie!

[Battleground Snow]

ECM has tomorrows snow a little further north, I'll let Tim do the honours.