Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Awesome gfs parallel with another frigid easterly, nearly getting the minus 20 line crossing the North Sea! 

It's been consistent in wanting to bring this easterly into the UK, but need it to make it to the reliable timeframe, which is about 96 hours when Siberian Easterlies are concerned, won't be ordering a new sledge, just yet... 

 

I ordered two 

[IDO]

ecm and gfs means at d10 are similar:

So pre-d10 for anything interesting remains low-confidence, d10 wedges on the ecm are not worth getting excited about until around d6 (d10 op London 850s a statistical outlier). So still no real change pre-d10 and we are awaiting for the models to settle down in FI. 

The gfs op run seems a possible solution late in fi, but it is but one in a variety at that range, and pinning my hopes on a d15 Scandi high which has mostly ever flattered to deceive is not my idea of fun, as we saw with the non-GH earlier this month! But at least we are seeing the trop maybe getting different feedback from background signals so I remain hopeful.

[sebastiaan1973]

Plume de Bilt. Impressive Control. Making a dream come true. Cyclones on a southern track delivering snow/ winter.in combination with a Scandi high.

Model charts for England (Snow depth) | ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days)

METEOLOGIX.COM

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ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 02/06/2021, 01:00am of parameter "Snow depth", model chart for map "England"

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by sebastiaan1973

[winterof79]

7 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well we are in a cold spell then briefly out of one then plunge into a much deeper one if the gefs are to be believed...

gefs full set,...i will take that

 

 

All change after 00z and back down to earth. Lol

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Plume de Bilt. Impressive Control. Making a dream come true.

Model charts for England (Snow depth) | ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days)

METEOLOGIX.COM

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ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 02/06/2021, 01:00am of parameter "Snow depth", model chart for map "England"

 

How funny Sebastian - I was about to reference the eps control - not surprising it all gets v interesting again .....let’s hope the balls fall for nw Europe second time around .....

[Paul_1978]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

All change after 00z and back down to earth. Lol

Charts for comparison?

[DavidS]

6 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Plume de Bilt. Impressive Control. Making a dream come true. Cyclones on a southern track delivering snow/ winter.in combination with a Scandi high.

Model charts for England (Snow depth) | ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days)

METEOLOGIX.COM

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ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 02/06/2021, 01:00am of parameter "Snow depth", model chart for map "England"

 

That would be crippling. A snow enforced lockdown

[winterof79]

31 minutes ago, IDO said:

ecm and gfs means at d10 are similar:

So pre-d10 for anything interesting remains low-confidence, d10 wedges on the ecm are not worth getting excited about until around d6 (d10 op London 850s a statistical outlier). So still no real change pre-d10 and we are awaiting for the models to settle down in FI. 

The gfs op run seems a possible solution late in fi, but it is but one in a variety at that range, and pinning my hopes on a d15 Scandi high which has mostly ever flattered to deceive is not my idea of fun, as we saw with the non-GH earlier this month! But at least we are seeing the trop maybe getting different feedback from background signals so I remain hopeful.

Quite Laughable how many times day 10 appeared in your post. Yet having read the thread you'd have thought it was a certainty. 

[Methuselah]

Another pair of somewhat unexceptional GEFS 00Z temp. ensembles:

    

But, weather doesn't concern itself with with our hopes, fears or reputations -- it just does!

 

[Penicuikblizzard]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Quite Laughable how many times day 10 appeared in your post. Yet having read the thread you'd have thought it was a certainty. 

Day 10 charts have been looking great since the end of November yet we are still waiting for these charts to verify let’s keep our feet on the ground people and see what develops 

[IDO]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Quite Laughable how many times day 10 appeared in your post. Yet having read the thread you'd have thought it was a certainty. 

D10 is the last chart we see on ecm. I would love public access to post-d10 for some d16 means to compare with the gefs. Sadly d10 is the furthest I can go. Also if d10 are similar then little point posting d8 as we can assume they are similar, which they def are!

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Day 10 charts have been looking great since the end of November yet we are still waiting for these charts to verify let’s keep our feet on the ground people and see what develops 

Quite like ecm day 8 this morning, if that helps?

[winterof79]

13 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Charts for comparison?

Nothing special compared to what we've seen. No beast on these compared to 18z

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Another pair of somewhat unexceptional GEFS 00Z temp. ensembles:

    

But, weather doesn't concern itself with with our hopes, fears or reputations -- it just does!

 

Indeed, could be worse though, could be going up

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

D10 is the last chart we see on ecm. I would love public access to post-d10 for some d16 means to compare with the gefs. Sadly d10 is the furthest I can go. Also if d10 are similar then little point posting d8 as we can assume they are similar, which they def are!

Yes so all in la la land at present. 

[Griff]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Nothing special compared to what we've seen. No beast on these compared to 18z

Not heading in the right direction though? Surely steps in the right direction at least? 

[blizzard81]

22 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Plume de Bilt. Impressive Control. Making a dream come true. Cyclones on a southern track delivering snow/ winter.in combination with a Scandi high.

Model charts for England (Snow depth) | ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days)

METEOLOGIX.COM

---

ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 02/06/2021, 01:00am of parameter "Snow depth", model chart for map "England"

 

Jan 87 redux?

[Summer Snow]

20 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Day 10 charts have been looking great since the end of November yet we are still waiting for these charts to verify let’s keep our feet on the ground people and see what develops 

This is not day 10 ..... it is 10 minutes ago 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Summer Snow

[Gowon]

30 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Plume de Bilt. Impressive Control. Making a dream come true. Cyclones on a southern track delivering snow/ winter.in combination with a Scandi high.

Model charts for England (Snow depth) | ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days)

METEOLOGIX.COM

---

ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 02/06/2021, 01:00am of parameter "Snow depth", model chart for map "England"

 

A nightmare for those in the far SE though 

[Penicuikblizzard]

23 minutes ago, Griff said:

Quite like ecm day 8 this morning, if that helps?

It’s getting there lol  

[feb1991blizzard]

25 minutes ago, Summer Snow said:

This is not day 10 ..... it is 10 minutes ago 

You do know those PPN type radars are nonsense, im in the pink and its just started to rain.

EDIT : turned to snow now though.

Edited January 23, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[Anthony Burden]

Charts this morning remain encouraging for another possible cold / very cold scenario after a

3 to 4day mild spell.Still in the changing longer range pattern but very intriguing as to what February 

will offer.Personally looking for that Scandinavian pressure rise.

[johnholmes]

Saturday 23 January 500 mb charts

Ec-gfs and initially they both look as before, trough off west and east coasts of n America and about westerly into uk and Europe. Then closer and ec especially shows a noticeable ridge over Iceland, giving a split flow into uk, nw for north and westerly for south of country, into trough to east?

Noaa is as before, troughs e and w n America, w’ly into uk with little sign of any trough over Europe. It does, like yesterday, have the merest hint of a bend(ridge) towards iceland on 6-10 and 8-14. Nothing to give any interest though.

So no signal to me overall for any change in the 6-14 day idea of a broadly westerly, although the flow into the uk is less so space for temporary differences in the actual flow. What that means is not clear and won’t be for a day or 3.

Looking at the two ECMWF outputs and both do suggest that there may be a colder option beyond the milder spell expected mid next week. One shows a slight veer in the 500 mb wind flow. The other shows the 850 mb temperatures, after a temporary increase, mid next week, turning colder again with a hint of a northerly, at least for the north.

Interesting, judge for yourselves on the links.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/

 

 

[bluearmy]

43 minutes ago, IDO said:

D10 is the last chart we see on ecm. I would love public access to post-d10 for some d16 means to compare with the gefs. Sadly d10 is the furthest I can go. Also if d10 are similar then little point posting d8 as we can assume they are similar, which they def are!

To clarify - what day 11 chart do you want to see?  If the eps, have you checked the ec website to see if anything is freely available on that?  There is so much more than used to be the case 

[Uncertainty]

33 minutes ago, Griff said:

Not heading in the right direction though? Surely steps in the right direction at least? 

The blocking signal is still there, the location remains a mystery other than ‘probably to our North’

Uncanny resemblance?

@IDOI appreciate your objectivity and your methodology, these charts will be moving into your interest range over the coming days  but what’s your take on the extended situation? the GEFS have been reasonably consistent towards the back end and are beginning to look a bit like the 46 weeks  2 and 3. 

 

Latest EPS probably have that high anomaly further East but there’s still way too many with a weak irksome trough to the west to send the de bilt graph tumbling. The GEPS are getting more blocked from a low base last few days but the mean trough is still in the wrong place (to our SW).

Ec op gets cold much quicker like last night but given it’s tendencies we can only acknowledge it rather than believe it.

0z

12z

However 3 EC ops in a row with the same pattern always gets my attention so let’s see where it’s at tonight.

Nothing this morning to alter my thoughts from last night e.g. more blocking, less west based -NAO but still no clearer on beast / no beast. If, model watching wise, it were to be clear and obvious like Feb 18 then we need those means to firm up on an easterly very soon indeed. Sadly it doesn’t quite look like that’ll be the case so it’s going to be another nail biter I’m afraid!