Model output discussion 24/01/21

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

Proper cold. Coupled with the best met extended, it’s been a good day for coldies.

Thanks ECM..and I would think now is the chance for some to have a little look back at the thread this morning,when some were in despair at the 0Z output..It proves the point that things not only change at short notice,but can change significantly as well..Thats why its best to view the output with your mind in perspective..3 or 4 bad runs dont spell the end of Winter...just like a few great runs dont mean the Day After Tomorrow is coming...volatility is very much in evidence with the output..I would expect we have quite a lot in the short term to pin down just now,but the doors are very much opening for something more potent in the coming weeks. It might be a roller coaster ride but we should very much get ready to enjoy both the ups and downs that come with it.

Edited January 26, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Tim Bland]

Hmmm lacking support ..champagne on ice for now...

[Griff]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Thanks ECM..and I would think now is the chance for some to have a little look back at the thread this morning,when some were in despair at the 0Z output..It proves the point that things not only change at short notice,but can change significantly as well..Thats why its best to view the output with your mind in perspective..3 or 4 bad runs dont spell the end of Winter...just like a few great runs dont mean the Day After Tomorrow is coming...volatility is very much in evidence with the output..I would expect we have quite a lot in the short term to pin down just now,but the doors are very much opening for something more potent in the coming weeks. It might be a roller coaster ride but we should very much get ready to enjoy both the ups and downs that come with it.

Also would be great if people could be open minded to all outcomes and all models without having a panic attack. Seems like some conscious and unconscious prejudices which aren't backed up by verification stats, but that's getting stuck in a loop covered many, many times. 

Excellent posts Matt, keep them coming

[chris55]

29 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Lots of focus on day 10-15 but there could be widespread snow this weekend. Icon and GEM show snow for many on Sunday, also possibilities with that low in the south on Sat

Agree Tim. The short term is way more interesting for now.

Yes we are seeing signs of some deep cold in FI and that's very welcome, but the shorter/mid term has plenty to keep us interested.

[Allseasons-Si]

Afternoon everyone

the mood swings in here today:-

this morning the doctor gives out the Prozac pills

this afternoon the doctor gives out the happy pills

great runs this afternoon i must say and there is every possibility that the charts this afternoon could come off the background of the MJO cycle into Phase 6/7 which would support a Greenland high,...but,...there is a way to go yet with differences still early on in the runs and it all boils down to getting enough trough disruption/energy forced SE with a wedge of heights forced up into Iceland come the weekend, this then joins the amplification from the Atlantic, a lot to get through yet so a sit and wait to see how this weekend shapes up.

JFF,...the control is also going along the similar lines here at day ten...

the op and control are at the bottom(cold end) of the pack,...no surprise there but i do hope(because they are higher resolution, I think) that they lead the way

Sheffield and London

back in a bit to find out what the ECM comes up with, going to have some tea whilst i ponder.

 

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Allseasons-si
Added info

[BlackburnChris]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hmmm lacking support ..champagne on ice for now...

To be fair there's a couple of ensemble members that go even colder than the OP and the mean is -5 or below @850 at the time frame the Op goes really Cold. A few mild blips to get there but staying on the Cold side looks the form horse at the moment .. 

Edited January 26, 2021 by BlackburnChris

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hmmm lacking support ..champagne on ice for now...

It’s a good start but you would hope/want more on board on future output.

[Griff]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hmmm lacking support ..champagne on ice for now...

Is this the old nugget regarding higher res op run sniffing out changes sooner? 

Might the gem and parallel give cause for some interest? 

Glass half full (for now)

I might be recycling incorrect myths... 

[Jason M]

10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hmmm lacking support ..champagne on ice for now...

Actually, one of the better sets I've seen all winter. Worthy of half an eyebrow being raised . Only half of one at the moment though.

[Kentspur]

27 minutes ago, MJB said:

Control looking ok

We need to see more charts like this from GFS control in a more reliable timeframe before I become convinced that areas that haven't seen any of the white stuff this winter stand a chance, unless its day 2-3 I won't believe it the Met update still mentions "Northern areas" which to me is status quo

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Actually, one of the better sets I've seen all winter. Worthy of half an eyebrow being raised . Only half of one at the moment though.

Shows how poor it’s been if the best set only goes as far as a -4c mean I’m sure the cold spell just ending had a -7 / -8c mean for a few days in a row  a week or so beforehand ?

[Frostbite1980]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Shows how poor it’s been if the best set only goes as far as a -4c mean I’m sure the cold spell just ending had a -7 / -8c mean for a few days in a row  a week or so beforehand ?

But how far in advance? This is so fluid its unreal 

[Jason M]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Shows how poor it’s been if the best set only goes as far as a -4c mean I’m sure the cold spell just ending had a -7 / -8c mean for a few days in a row  a week or so beforehand ?

Indeed. Its been dire really. Its not the 'mean' that has got my attention though its the number of deep cold runs in there. There will always be warm ensembles at that range which will wash out the average, but what there has been a distinct lack of is genuinely cold runs. Pretty charts, yes, cold charts no so much! 

Will probably be gone later, but good to see.

[Griff]

Ecm looks more conservative than the other 12z runs at 72 hours, there's a surprise. 

Not for the first time I'll suggest it might be playing catch up.  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hmmm, looks further north for Saturday, assume it will end up further S

[Day 10]

20 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Actually, one of the better sets I've seen all winter. Worthy of half an eyebrow being raised . Only half of one at the moment though.

Yes even in deep FI it's good to see 3 or 4 diving off a cliff with the OP, not bad at such long range let's hope the trend builds.

[nick sussex]

At T96 hrs the ECM is certainly better than the UKMO .

The shortwave to the ne is further east with a better aligned wedge to the north .

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

At T96 hrs the ECM is certainly better than the UKMO .

The shortwave to the ne is further east with a better aligned wedge to the north .

Ecm at 120 hours

[KTtom]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm at 120 hours

Ok, ill do it

[Vikos]

38 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Thanks ECM..and I would think now is the chance for some to have a little look back at the thread this morning,when some were in despair at the 0Z output..It proves the point that things not only change at short notice,but can change significantly as well..Thats why its best to view the output with your mind in perspective..3 or 4 bad runs dont spell the end of Winter...just like a few great runs dont mean the Day After Tomorrow is coming...volatility is very much in evidence with the output..I would expect we have quite a lot in the short term to pin down just now,but the doors are very much opening for something more potent in the coming weeks. It might be a roller coaster ride but we should very much get ready to enjoy both the ups and downs that come with it.

I agree somehow (and I feel that I am one of the mentioned). But (and it's a big but ) it's not that the models aren't showing anything good (=cold) in their schwifty (copyright Rick and Morty) outputs, it's the fact that they are delaying things and not getting into reachable time areas like lets say +144h. It's the wellknown 1 step forward, 2 steps back game that is happening.

But ok, lets keep the faith and still listen to the background signals and the twitters, what else is there to do? Sitting in agony? No!

 

[nick sussex]

A big change in the ECM compared to previous runs . The infamous shortwave to the ne remains separated from the approaching low , no phasing of energy at the key timeframe .

[Tim Bland]

Some snow in from the south west Sunday & monday 

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Allseasons-Si]

That's got to go under at 144,the ECM at 120...

as @nick sussex says there is no shortwave drama to the north and it looks a good clean evolution from there.

[Allseasons-Si]

At 144,...

the trough disrupted SE.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Some snow in the south west Sunday l. Doesn’t make it east of a line Birmingham to London on the run, similar to GEM

Was just thinking that! not sure I like this EC, wanted another snow sunday? what about Sat? that looks far enough N/E