Model output discussion 24/01/21

[IDO]

Fingers crossed, but we had this same situation at now-d5 where it looked like we could be heading to a colder flow, and it slowly drifted away, and now at d8, part 2! Something seems to be brewing for this to keep popping up, but we need the models to stop teasing and deliver.

Needless to say the op looks great, synoptic-wise and is effective for cold for a change. I have started the countdown timer; t-11520 minutes.

[Griff]

GEM on! 

Accidental / deliberate Partridge 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Griff

[winterof79]

High pressure to our North... Again the signal but getting stronger. 

 

[Matt H]

GEM 12z is very close to being fantastic as well. There’s a lovely deep cold pool lurking to our NE. 

 

[Methuselah]

Flock the big flock.... why oh why oh why, did I leave my skis in the Heelands!

    

Chance of verification?

[Vikos]

  === 

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

GEM on! 

Parallel similar 

A couple of frames to catch up! 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Griff

[Timmytour]

After looking at the models I've rolled a die a hundred times to assess the chances of a cold February with the higher the number the better and I've averaged 4.7. On the surface that looks good for those wishing for cold, but I cannot stress enough that there are many factors that can change the actual outlook, not least the fact that it may be incorrect to say the higher the number it will be the colder it will be, or that another hundred rolls of the die might produce a different result.

In the end I have to say that I have no idea what is going to happen and can only hazard guesses based on what the models show me on any given run, and change my opinion according to what they show me on the next run.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

that’s a coldie heaven chart.  Bitterly cold andca serious snow event.  Look at the secondary Lp to the SW....what happens with that.  It’s perfect  synoptics unfortunately...

 

BFTP

[Griff]

Slowly slowly catchy  

[Tim Bland]

️

[Lampostwatcher]

Very pleasing gfs12z

And met office update today 

Things looking fantastic as we enter feb

[Cold Winter Night]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Parallel similar 

Both GEM and GFSp lack low heights over Europe or the Mediterranean, effectively blocking the cold from coming our way.

But details aside, in a more general sense, GFS, GFSp and GEM going for more HLB is a positive, especially as it is happening earlier than the familiar Day 10 affairs. Very curious to see how all this will develop.

[phil nw.]

The evolution to Atlantic ridging from days 7/8 and the jet forced south is a reasonable one.Earlier gefs and eps showed the AH retrogressing west and then north around then.

 

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Both GEM and GFSp lack low heights over Europe or the Mediterranean, effectively blocking the cold from coming our way.

But details aside, in a more general sense, GFS, GFSp and GEM going for more HLB is a positive, especially as it is happening earlier than the familiar Day 10 affairs. Very curious to see how all this will develop.

Will it turn out like this? Who knows, as you say curious, also fascinating.  We might / could end up on the cold side of the fence? 

Would be great to get some agreement between the models, might just rub off on some of the more sceptical in here! 

(ecm to make me look daft shortly ) 

[Battleground Snow]

Control and mean broadly supportive at 192.

 

[northwestsnow]

GEFS sniffing out wedges of heights to our North as per Exeter?

[Tim Bland]

Lots of focus on day 10-15 but there could be widespread snow this weekend. Icon and GEM show snow for many on Sunday, also possibilities with that low in the south on Sat

[goosey007]

30 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Those in Wales and parts of south west will be praying GEM is correct, it has 36hrs of snow from sun eve to Tues morn ...

If Only Tim .....as far as this afternoons output is concerned think we can all say we seen numerous false Dawn's for deep cold this winter.....actually didnt ever remember a model watching winter season like it.....i believe in the law of averages so think this latest  day 9/10  chart for deep cold will come off especially now the boffins in the met are backing a colder out look.....anyway had a fab 7cm on sunday and only just disappeared today bar the snowman in the garden...so anything after this is a big bonus compared to usual uk winters !! Stay happy a positive people whatever the weather

ps big Ecm upcoming I think .....

Edited January 26, 2021 by goosey007

[swfc]

I'd reign in your excitement altho it's been ongoing since late November. Looks like some decent push of low Heighths south. Ie any northern Heighths remember the lingering artic high that vanished. Hopefully Feb brings a spell longer than a few days esp for the south.

[swebby]

10 minutes ago, Griff said:

Will it turn out like this? Who knows, as you say curious, also fascinating.  We might / could end up on the cold side of the fence? 

Would be great to get some agreement between the models, might just rub off on some of the more sceptical in here! 

(ecm to make me look daft shortly ) 

That thermal gradient over central Europe in your second chart - would that not encourage low pressure to form in situ over Italy and the Adriatic?

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, swebby said:

That thermal gradient over central Europe in your second chart - would that not encourage low pressure to form in situ over Italy and the Adriatic?

I just closed the page but it gets there in the end

[Matt H]

A fairly positive set of GEFS 12z ensembles so far with a decent cluster of runs diving down to around -10C during the first week of February. Hopefully we can build on this further tomorrow!

Edited January 26, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[MJB]

Control looking ok

[Geordiesnow]

No real excitement on the charts in terms of anything deep cold imo, does look like colder air will hang on in the far North East of Scotland and some hill snow is possible and some of that cold will filter further south and west again but nothing too significant before the Atlantic tries to come in again in the medium term. 

Models want to build the Arctic high quite strongly it seems but unless it influences our weather then it's a bit of a waste really.