Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[supernova]

34 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It was 12z run in December 2012. Can’t remember the exact 5th maybe?

Still have nightmares about that particular countdown @That ECM. What a flip! And I’d told the kids to ready their sledges (lesson duly learned, this time I’m polishing the runners in secret!).

Edited January 31, 2021 by supernova
Updated

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It was 12z run in December 2012. Can’t remember the exact 5th maybe?

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP

5th 12z

[northwestsnow]

Well,the mean is far far better than that wretched det but there has been a move to bring in the Atlantic later on.

Perhaps snowy,initially...

[Weather-history]

Looks like ECM 0z is a great whopping outlier at the end, Manchester 2m temperatures and the control looks like an outlier at the other end of the scale!!!

 

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by Weather-history

[KTtom]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

do you know that?

I always thought the data came out around 6am .....certainly not before 4am when they issue 

 

The longer ranges dont update until the afternoon as already stated above. No idea why it always states 04.00?!

[Battleground Snow]

This has to be up there as one of the biggest outliers of all time... Something isn't right with this, data looks wrong?

 

[Frosty.]

From this coldies point of view, the GEFS 0z mean looks pretty darn good..as in cold later in the week ahead!...and it’s not alone, there’s plenty of wintry charts to look at again from the 0z output!

 

[IDO]

Avoiding the downstream developments that clearly now are showing x-model support for the cold flow to be cut-off by d8 from Asia to Scandi, ergo we lose that trough to our east as a block. We are therefore relying on the micro-scale to maintain whatever cold pool we get before the flow is cut off?

The ecm and gfs are very similar at d6:

The variance is from where the easterly flows and therefore the modelling of that trough to our south? The gfs sinks it whilst the ecm is more progressive with the Azores ridge flattening squeezing that trough and the low stays further north on the ecm. It is reasonable to assume there are upstream differences having that knock on effect. So maybe gfs, or maybe ecm will be correct, or they will simple meet in the middle?

As for post d8 the gfs and ecm both model the ex-Arctic high differently. ECM looks to fail post d8 from a viewing perspective and is a complete stat outlier:

GFS ramps up the Atlantic post-d10 and seems to be progressive. These runs are worth binning and waiting for other runs to clarify!

Edited January 31, 2021 by IDO

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Looks like ECM 0z is a great whopping outlier at the end, Manchester 2m temperatures

 

 

Control looks cold, an improvement as that has been following the OP religiously over the past few days.

I’m sure someone will post it or view it and give us their thoughts @Man Without Beard@sebastiaan1973

[bluearmy]

This little low is still causing issues and the only reason that it’s more positive in here this morning is the Ukmo run. I can add a little more by confirming that the eps control is not with the ec op. 
 

however, the ec op is not unsupported at day 5 with the low (gem v similar) and one of the gfs twins is also not far away.
we expected that the 00z wouldn’t resolve this and they haven’t. 

we hoped the 12z runs today would so keep those digits crossed.  the evolution of the ec op would probably have been good if the shortwave drama had settled between days 5 and 6 

 

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

This has to be up there as one of the biggest outliers of all time... Something isn't right with this, data looks wrong?

 

Looks more like a glitch here especially at the start. 

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Snowman. said:

Looks more like a glitch here especially at the start. 

Yes I can see the real one Ido just posted, still a huge outlier at the end

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This little low is still causing issues and the only reason that it’s more positive in here this morning is the Ukmo run. I can add a little more by confirming that the eps control is not with the ec op. 
 

however, the ec op is not unsupported at day 5 with the low (gem v similar) and one of the gfs twins is also not far away.
we expected that the 00z wouldn’t resolve this and they haven’t. 

we hoped the 12z runs today would so keep those digits crossed.  the evolution of the ec op would probably have been good if the shortwave drama had settled between days 5 and 6 

 

I'm going to be openly honest.

I'm attaching quite a lot of importance to GFS 6Z today...

Like analysing every frame ( got little else to do today) like some obsessive weirdo.

Certainly if 6z makes a move to that x rated EC I will begin to get that sinking feeling.

PS, GFS 00z looked VERY snowy for the SE !

HIGH stakes ...

[nick sussex]

Quite extraordinary!

The ECM op seems to be getting worst by each run and ensembles seem to getting better .

Having looked at the UKMO before the ECM this morning I felt okay surely that must move .

The ECM 0hrs run doesn’t even have jam tomorrow it has no jam at all and delivers the final insult to coldies by day 10.

Problem now is we’re getting down to the wire , last chance saloon time tonight because the timeframe leaves little room for a reprieve . The ECM needs to be completely wrong  because a middle ground solution won’t deliver.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Quite extraordinary!

The ECM op seems to be getting worst by each run and ensembles seem to getting better .

Having looked at the UKMO before the ECM this morning I felt okay surely that must move .

The ECM 0hrs run doesn’t even have jam tomorrow it has no jam at all and delivers the final insult to coldies by day 10.

Problem now is we’re getting down to the wire , last chance saloon time tonight because the timeframe leaves little room for a reprieve . The ECM needs to be completely wrong  because a middle ground solution won’t deliver.

6z gfs is going to give us a big clue Nick,esp at the timeframes involved.

You have no idea how much I want it to cosy up to ukmo at 96-120!!

The cold is in by 120 on ukmo ...

Edited January 31, 2021 by northwestsnow

[bluearmy]

looking at day 5 shows the ec is very much not isolated. The day 6 chart looks different!  The issue is in that time period - of course the charts at day 4 will impact on how ec deals with the low.  But simply stating that it’s ec v the rest is a little simplistic.  the crucial period is days 5/7 and we know which model is nearly always best in that timeframe .....

The only good thing here is that ec doesn’t drop a scenario bit by bit like gfs but just drops it completely. So we could be out of the woods in twelve hours......

 or we could be deeper into the forest ......

Edited January 31, 2021 by bluearmy

[That ECM]

18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This little low is still causing issues and the only reason that it’s more positive in here this morning is the Ukmo run. I can add a little more by confirming that the eps control is not with the ec op. 
 

however, the ec op is not unsupported at day 5 with the low (gem v similar) and one of the gfs twins is also not far away.
we expected that the 00z wouldn’t resolve this and they haven’t. 

we hoped the 12z runs today would so keep those digits crossed.  the evolution of the ec op would probably have been good if the shortwave drama had settled between days 5 and 6 

 

Yes as @Blessed Weather illustrated. The ecm overall nhp is much more inline with Ukmo and gfs. The feature to the north of Scotland is the issue. Change that and it would be a very different outcome wrt 850’s etc. T96 -T120.  Nicely described above.^^^^ This would be as monumental as when all 3 and meto were forecasting an easterly at t96 for it to go wrong. FWIW I don’t think it will this time but hey nothing surprises you when it comes to weather.

Edited January 31, 2021 by That ECM

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

looking at day 5 shows the ec is very much not isolated. The day 6 chart looks different!  The issue in that time period and of course the charts at day 4 will impact on how ec deals with the low.  But simply stating that it’s ec v the rest is a little simplistic.  the crucial period is days 5/7 and we know which model is nearly always best in that timeframe .....

The only good thing here is that ec doesn’t drop a scenario bit by bit like gfs but just drops it completely. So we could be out of the woods in twelve hours......

 or we could be deeper into the forest ......

Bottom line is if UKMO has this right we are laughing.

As I've posted above,6z is massive in that it will give us a big clue ...

We are talking day 4 to 5 here ...

Tbh after seeing ukmo and GFS im thoroughly peed off as I felt a cold spell was looking good.

Back to nail biting it is!!

Come on 6z !!

 

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Quite extraordinary!

The ECM op seems to be getting worst by each run and ensembles seem to getting better .

Having looked at the UKMO before the ECM this morning I felt okay surely that must move .

The ECM 0hrs run doesn’t even have jam tomorrow it has no jam at all and delivers the final insult to coldies by day 10.

Problem now is we’re getting down to the wire , last chance saloon time tonight because the timeframe leaves little room for a reprieve . The ECM needs to be completely wrong  because a middle ground solution won’t deliver.

If ec drops that system south or southeast (as others)  then I don’t think it’s a bad run in the mid term - adjust the pattern 500 miles south and allow for the detachments of lower heights as phasing won’t occur and it would deliver 

[minus 9]

Does anyone think Ian brown has broke into the ecm servers.???

[winterof79]

19 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

This has to be up there as one of the biggest outliers of all time... Something isn't right with this, data looks wrong?

 

Christ I wish I'd just started at this post. Interpretation of model output needs to improve. GFS a week of freezing but it's referred to as a short cold snap. Sometimes it's easier on the mind to assess all info first. 

No idea why ECM is so different

 

 

 

[northwestsnow]

Well Nick blue ...

Remember me saying can you identify fly in  the ointments for the Eaaterly?

You said a few, we are down to one shortwave...

Deja vu?

Feb 2012, different situation synoptically but similar potential,for snow at least...

Edited January 31, 2021 by northwestsnow

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

6z gfs is going to give us a big clue Nick,esp at the timeframes involved.

You have no idea how much I want it to cosy up to ukmo at 96-120!!

The cold is in by 120 on ukmo ...

When I looked at the UKMO at day 5 I thought great , the ECM must make a move . But no !

The problem is as soon as that phasing occurs on the latter with the limpet low it’s game over , that then means the energy is directed east not se. So never allowing the high to get sufficiently sw to stop the next low from moving in.

In terms of the upstream pattern NCEP are using the ensemble means because of the op spread , the way the ECM allows the high to escape west further compounds the problems and that’s because of the upstream pattern.

I’m certain we’ll have a resolution by this evening regarding the limpet low.  

 

[bluearmy]

The euro high solution (ec op) from ec is the smallest cluster days 8/10 

whilst there are five of them, highlighting the uncertainty ahead, there is only this cluster with that ridge and its 14%

but don’t look at the extended eps clusters if you’re of a wintry disposition and expecting cream to follow on from any jam .....

Edited January 31, 2021 by bluearmy

[Scandinavian High.]

Well after seeing ukmo and gfs this morning was thinking going dust down the sledge after seeing ecm I’ve held off for time being