Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[winterof79]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

looking at day 5 shows the ec is very much not isolated. The day 6 chart looks different!  The issue is in that time period - of course the charts at day 4 will impact on how ec deals with the low.  But simply stating that it’s ec v the rest is a little simplistic.  the crucial period is days 5/7 and we know which model is nearly always best in that timeframe .....

The only good thing here is that ec doesn’t drop a scenario bit by bit like gfs but just drops it completely. So we could be out of the woods in twelve hours......

 or we could be deeper into the forest ......

So 50 /50 you think after that. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Scandinavian High. said:

Well after seeing ukmo and gfs this morning was thinking going dust down the sledge after seeing ecm I’ve held off for time being

Its agony lol.

Esp for the poor SE , GFS dangled a carrot with a good 2 days of heavy snow showers mid term...

Ec offers an hour of sleet ...

[Winter Hill]

5 minutes ago, minus 9 said:

Does anyone think Ian brown has broke into the ecm servers.???

I think the ECM has not been the same since it’s upgrade a few years ago. 
that’s just my opinion 

[That ECM]

@nick sussex do one of your drawings please for newbies as this must be frustrating to view. However a good learning setup to illustrate why this feature is crucial. Im down the beach on my phone so can’t. 
 

lots of seagulls down here but there is always

Edited January 31, 2021 by That ECM

[winterof79]

Anyone with info on how accurate the extended EPS have been so far.?

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

So 50 /50 you think after that. 

Not really - that system is so crucial to what follows it’s a bit pointless to think about events beyond it. 

And it could behave in a different manner to how ec op and the others models currently handle it. Which would bring something unexpected to the table 

crazy isn’t it ! 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Not really - that system is so crucial to what follows it’s a bit pointless to think about events beyond it. 

And it could behave in a different manner to how ec op and the others models currently handle it. Which would bring something unexpected to the table 

crazy isn’t it ! 

But of course if ukmo handles it well,which I expect it will btw.

Then that opens up lots of goodies ...

[Klippieboo10]

Dry on all angles.

east always difficult.

 

looking at current models shows why east is never an easy or best route

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Not really - that system is so crucial to what follows it’s a bit pointless to think about events beyond it. 

And it could behave in a different manner to how ec op and the others models currently handle it. Which would bring something unexpected to the table 

crazy isn’t it ! 

Yes very Blue. Nothing is ever straight forward on this little  Island surrounded by sea and at the mercy of NAD... Hey ho keeps us interested. 

[Winter Hill]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

But of course if ukmo handles it well,which I expect it will btw.

Then that opens up lots of goodies ...

I would feel the Ukmo, would have this in the bag now. Especially at this range.

but I think we all have this nagging feeling that if it can go wrong, it will. 

[Man With Beard]

Really odd to see the ECM op so different to its ensembles from day 6 on two consecutive runs!

Hard to see it being right against all the other runs and ensembles - usually the UKMO and its own ensembles would have followed by now. However, there has been a slight - not total - move towards the ECM at D5. 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Yes very Blue. Nothing is ever straight forward on this little  Island surrounded by sea and at the mercy of NAD... Hey ho keeps us interested. 

Yes - Imagine how quiet the MOD thread is on the Siberian net weather site  ....

[ICE COLD]

OMG I’m at my wits end . . I looked at UKMO first this morning and was so happy . But still the ECM refuses . Very worried now . 
 

UKMO 

[supernova]

In fact the opposite of Dec 12 when the ECM in particular had counted down a potent Easterly only to scupper all chances at the last minute. This time the ECM has been reluctant throughout which is why so many have probably still got the jitters because it remains one of the better models in the crucial 5-6 day timeframe. Not sure which scenario I prefer tbh, ECM fully onboard only to kill us dead at the finish or vaguely indifferent only to delight us nearer the time?! For those in any doubt, let me remind you...

5th Dec 2012 looking out 192 hrs on the 12z as the BFTE roars in...

One run later, the roar still looks primed, then 12z on the 6th, 96hrs still looking good...

Even closer on the 0z with no dramas and then 72hrs on the 12z, when woollen layers and insulated boots were being hastily prepared...

Until the worst u-turn in ECM history destroyed the hearts and souls of a cold-loving nation not 12 hours later as the low slipped east, high pressure drifted across the UK and fathers across the nation had to tell their children that Santa wasn’t real after all...

Edited January 31, 2021 by supernova

[Lord Grogon]

41 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It was 12z run in December 2012. Can’t remember the exact date  5th maybe? I’ll have a look back later.

I was the one who raised this question yesterday. It was quite hard to research due to the sheer number of posts in the archive. Plus you can’t see all the pictures. The 12z on 9th Jan 2013 was my best guess. It drove the forum nuts but was watered substantially down afterwards.

Happy to be proved wrong though. 

[nick sussex]

Just now, That ECM said:

@nick sussex do one of your drawings please for newbies as this must be frustrating to view. However a good learning setup to illustrate why this feature is crucial. I down the beach on my phone so can’t. 
 

lots of seagulls down here but this always

I would be happy to but I only have an iPad now . I used to do those paint jobs from my laptop . To explain the limpet low which hangs around over the UK stops the block from extending sw and with it the cold air . And that then phases with the next low between day 6 and 7 , by then the ships sailed the cold air is already too far north and there’s no way of reprieving the situation.

Its really all down to the limpet lows behaviour . If you get that se or s of the UK the block will have extended sw facing the next upstream low head on and forcing it to disrupt energy se wards .

[sheikhy]

Beware ecm (the king)!!after looking at the ukmo i was hoping ecm would follow but it hasnt!!this could be the calm before the storm!!in a good way or bad way?!we will find out on the 12zs!!!

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Man Without Beard said:

Really odd to see the ECM op so different to its ensembles from day 6 on two consecutive runs!

Hard to see it being right against all the other runs and ensembles - usually the UKMO and its own ensembles would have followed by now. However, there has been a slight - not total - move towards the ECM at D5. 

This is so important to note .....and because there could be a middle ground solution yet to show itself we aren’t really sure where that takes us

I’m consoling myself that gem has been fairly close to ecm with this fella these past two runs and it has managed to deliver on both of them 

[northwestsnow]

6z is a behind the sofa job for me..

 

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Anyone with info on how accurate the extended EPS have been so far.?

a decent indicator of what pattern is coming but generally under/over stating a mean feature 

this mornings extended is heavy on euro heights compared to previous output which lifts the mean jet 

[winterof79]

So I need to stay in the now for a while this morning.... Tuesday hopeful for a little snow up here. 

GFS

Arpege

And the bad old ECM

 

 

 

[jules216]

Extended clusters dont offer much of cold or UK/IE looking at anomalies. Things can change and who knows what more shortwave drama is going to happen, I thing judging by recent trends odds are the cold will arrive just in time for March as per recent years :))

[That ECM]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6z is a behind the sofa job for me..

 

We are nuts aren’t we. lucky pants on.

[Polar Maritime]

Extended UKV and NetWx for end of next week.

 

[Drifter]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

All going wrong on the ECM again, btw ukmo not all that IMO.

I’m intrigued why you’re not keen on the UKMO run