Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

17 hours ago, nick sussex said:

 

 

Ignore the tag. 

The radar looking vigorous this morning. Hard to see how it gets held out west and disapaits all day. 

 

The last few events have been so poorly modelled even up to t0, 

The last 2 events the beebs moved south barely effecting the mids only to become a midlands event. Even if yesterday it was wet snow rather settling, but the ppn distribution came a lot further north than they thought. 

I attach this mornings most recent radar 

[Tim Bland]

Perhaps the ‘meeting in the middle ‘ we should expect is the low parking over the centre of the UK? Still drives snow showers in from the east? ...

[Snowmaggedon]

Can we let a run finish before posting analysis it’s very confusing on here for those who have no idea what the models are doing. Thanks 

[Nick F]

Trouble is the low has nowhere to go with a jet to the southwest and close to the southeast on the near continent. Sorry can't post charts atm.

But, the low should fill with the jet to the south, so long as we get decent blocking in place to the north - as still advertised on 06z GFS.

Maybe a case of a delay to the easterly? As frustrating as that will be!

Certainly EC could be right up to T+132-144, but wrong after that - with models converging on the idea of EC in keeping the low propped up over UK until next weekend.

[Valleyboy]

Just now, Vikos said:

Why? Because it doesn't match ones favour? Thats wishful thinking but not synoptical logic.

I only follow the ECM, so can’t comment on the other models.  The latest ECM output looks completely plausible and I expect it to be correct.  We do have a cold spell coming, but any low ground snow will be marginal.  High ground will do well again.  My advice is to stick with one model, and view it once a day, this will keep you grounded and help with your sanity.  There are too many emotional ups and downs on this forum.  Remember, it’s only weather, and with bigger things to worry about at the moment, it puts everything into perspective.

[Vikos]

ECM d10 vs d3

    

[MJB]

4 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

Looks like a douze point to the ECM for sticking to its guns

Don't forget ECM went off on one ..........see below 

Meteociel - Diagrammes ECMWF/CEP

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

 

[kold weather]

So this run looks poor for the south, ok for the north post 144hrs.

Eventually the cold is going to filter through the whole country, but my word its taking a long time for the south to join in!

Hard to deny a move towards ECM at 96hrs though. And thats the really key timeframe here. 

Edited January 31, 2021 by kold weather

[Man With Beard]

GFS 06Z a slight move to the ECM but still goes well - the easterly feeds into the low making it an unstable cold pool

[Battleground Snow]

I've marked up where the big difference is, we need this area to be right on the GFS

Ian f hinting there would be a little delay, this seems to fit with that

Edited January 31, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Ignore the tag. 

The radar looking vigorous this morning. Hard to see how it gets held out west and disapaits all day. 

 

The last few events have been so poorly modelled even up to t0, 

The last 2 events the beebs moved south barely effecting the mids only to become a midlands event. Even if yesterday it was wet snow rather settling, but the ppn distribution came a lot further north than they thought. 

I attach this mornings most recent radar 

I posted earlier how the models now show more of a push east of this now. As well as Wales and NI places like Salisbury plain, Cotsworlds & Chilterns  could see a dusting later ..

[ICE COLD]

T174 are take it over the grinch ECM 

[Notty]

1 minute ago, Man Without Beard said:

GFS 06Z a slight move to the ECM but still goes well - the easterly feeds into the low making it an unstable cold pool

Yes - -12 uppers into the North by next weekend

[Penrith Snow]

Glad I am not doing the Countryfile forecast today, might as well admit in the opening seconds that we haven't a scooby about Wednesday never mind Friday.

Andy

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, Man Without Beard said:

GFS 06Z a slight move to the ECM but still goes well - the easterly feeds into the low making it an unstable cold pool

@kold weather I think it's not too bad for the south really?

[mountain shadow]

The East coast of Scotland looks like getting buried next week, over here in NI, cold rain and more flooding.

 

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, stratty said:

Could bring a snow covering before the easterly sets in though?  

The BIG fly in the ointment!!!.@African fed=iberian rises!!!!!

[MJB]

Wintry for sure 

[IDO]

Although the gfs has moved towards the ecm with the modelling of the low, and that is not great from an IMBY perspective in the short term, in the medium term, d7+ ecm went wrong so do not expect the gfs to replicate that!

As others have alluded to, the middle ground may be the answer, maybe similar to the 06z:

Interesting to see where this takes us as it seems far more sensible than the ecm which just gave up and blew up lows at d8-10!

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

The East coast of Scotland looks like getting buried next week, over here in NI, cold rain and more flooding.

 

Based on this run .........

[kold weather]

Man what a divisive run this will be!

TERRIBLE run for the south. Lots of rain moving through and the cold remains just too far north. At least through 180hrs. It may still get there *eventually*

GREAT run for the north. the NE in particular exposed to a good easterly airflow with a constant frontal boundary  just sitting dumping snow.

How you view this run is going to be very IMBY.

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by kold weather

[Tim Bland]

If this is the compromise I’ll take it

[sheikhy]

Move towards ecm im afraid!!now what one must remember on here is this could be the typical slow backtrack towards ecm!!!!this run is just about okay because of a stronger ridge between 120 and 144 hours but if ecm is correct then the gfs shall slowly erode that in the next few runs to the point where it will look exactly like the ecm!!please guys dont ignore these changes on the 06z just because it something you dont wana accept!!!

[ICE COLD]

Reload going into Greenland

[stratty]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

Wintry for sure 

.....and would prefer this to a bone dry easterly!