Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Frosty.]

️  

 

There’s been plenty of great charts today and I’m sure there’s much more to come! if anything, I think support has grown stronger since the 0z for a MAJOR WINTERY BLAST..it seems as though the much hyped SSW is about to deliver!

[Daniel*]

Very striking here limited support for northerly low.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

Just based on what usually happens...    Experience I guess.  But I do agree that the lows usually head further south nearer the time, but I don't think it will be enough this time for people in the south..

Let's just wait and see. Only talking 100 miles, which is nothing in the grand scheme of things.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Very striking here limited support for northerly low.

How reliable are these Dan?

[kold weather]

Just now, Man Without Beard said:

Whilst that's a good assessment of the ECM run, I never forget that in a snow scenario when cold is likely, nothing is particularly certain until T48 - apart from north sea convection.

I'm sure there could be some troughs circulating around the flow regardless of where it ends up and your right about things sometimes getting picked up in the flow. However I'm never keen to see a overland flow at this time of year. Had we been in March I'd be less bothered.

Its just a short lived dusting is going to feel quite poor for those further south when places in the NE are upto 40cms!

[Geordiesnow]

4 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

For our tiny island these 100-200 mile shifts northwards or southwards will make a huge difference as to who gets buried.

As tonight shows it's the NE but a few hundred miles shift south and it's the SE back in the game. It's probably going to swing either way for a few days yet before that low is finally pinned down!

And conversely if it was 100 miles further north, more areas will be ruled out so knifeedge stuff indeed. The important bit is at 48/72 hours, how that low behave will have a big impact just how cold it will be and how widespread that cold will be.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

40 minutes ago, That ECM said:

@chionomaniac you went 24 hour’s early.

Looks like Alaska’s getting a right hook  

[Kentspur]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Very striking here limited support for northerly low.

[Lloyd1]

26 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Incoming from the south west. By the end everyone is covered ️

Don't get your hopes up, these snow charts are volatile in their approach at this stage. I've seen this many times before this winter and previous years. If the low does eventually push through along that trajectory shown most of the time it produces rain, may give you some snow for a time if the cold high pushes back a bit. Don't get me wrong I would absolutely love this scenario but I'm just cautions when it comes to these charts early on. 

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

How reliable are these Dan?

Well EPS offers best guidance vastly superior to GEFS, there’s also MOGREPS ens but only professionals have access to that I believe that’s what Met Office use a lot very high res. 

[Snowjokes92]

Anyone got ecm day snow charts?

Hope and think we will see a shift south, good 100 miles for those in south. Happy to see something like that as will help keep the cold flow across the whole country. Anyone in yorkshire and lincs will be happy with a shift south as the solution would still keep us in a convective flow.

[TSNWK]

I think.. just maybe..... that ECM might have dished out one of less cold members out if I’m understanding those EPS charts from @Daniel correctly,

If so the line graph  when out out should show  the black line towards the top half until  day 8 and then with luck it shoots up by itself at the end.

Edited February 2, 2021 by TSNWK

[NewEra21]

6 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

And conversely if it was 100 miles further north, more areas will be ruled out so knifeedge stuff indeed. The important bit is at 48/72 hours, how that low behave will have a big impact just how cold it will be and how widespread that cold will be.

Precisely, one thing is for sure is that we don't want to see anymore northwards corrections. Otherwise before you know it, it will only be the very far north of England and Scotland benefiting.

For those in Scotland though the cold and snow looks nailed either way!

Edited February 2, 2021 by NewEra21

[Uncle_Barty]

42 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

-7’C 850hpa temperatures or lower on the ECM in a flow from the continent. More than cold enough for snow. I often see snow in a north westerly flow with 850hpa temperatures of -2’C. I know I have a little bit altitude and I’m not in the far south but it’s not like I’m on top of a Scottish mountain. If the latter can bring me snow, the former sure can bring snow to those lower down and further south!

I've had rain down here on  several occasions with uppers of -8.

[danm]

7 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

That's literally all I want like you've had 1 settling snowfall and id be happy tbh, my reply after you posted this, I did say I'm trying (with difficulty) to stay optimistic once there's been a snow event like London etc had I'm sure it will change everything like for yourself, but as Kreftysoton just said this is a really abnormal winter by the fact there's been such a stark divergence between the North and south this winter, and its those fine lines which keep reoccurring that has made it increasingly frustrating for us with out any settling snowfalls, still time It may or may not happen we shall see 

Keep the faith. Hopefully this will give us all a good snowfall. If not, ce la vie.

[sheikhy]

Wow and now i hear the mean is further east and south

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Have to say though the looking very closely to the ECM its solution is actually not all that drastically different from the GFS 12z, but the UK low just about survives long enough to stop the Iberian low pulling in the warmer air around its northern side and instead it gets sheared off to the east instead.

Good to see the ECM ensembles are a little south, though I do think I'd trust the operationals a little more on the exact locations of lows.

[Paul]

Steady as she goes on the UKV 15z, following a very similar theme to the 3z this morning, bringing deep cold virtually countrywide on Sunday, along with a good rash of snow showers from the east.

 

[James Maidstone]

I may be a novice amateur when it comes to meteorology, but from what I can see there are two salient points

• As they say "Get the cold in first and then worry about everything else -that now seems fairly likely for the vast majority of the country?
• Worry about the exact position of the low at 96/120/144 and how it affects precipitation streams is unnecessary detail at this stage, since the position of the low which is currently being modeled for Sunday/Monday is not where it will actually be and thus the precipitation charts are not worth worrying about at this stage?  You have got to be in it to win it and we are getting closer to being in it?

I hope I am not barking up the wrong tree with the above points?

[DJ Fart]

45 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192 and we’re home and hosed.  That low took a bit of time to stop messing things up for the far SE, but it has done now, and maybe this might correct south nearer the time anyway.  

Excellent.

Yes, but s getting pushed back and back. Starting to think it'll never actually arrive. 

 

Friend of mine is in the emergency planning dept down here and has sent me a photo of an update they've received from the Met O...looks unlike most of he output being modelled. Only sent to him today as well so not using old data. We shall see... 

[Matt Jones]

I understand the disappointment here but it can't be denied, the ECM has moved toward the GFS scenario, I would love some falling snow for my location just maybe a dusting. But gone are the deep cold 850's we saw in the last 24-36hrs. More runs more changes to come hopefully for the better for all of us. Been a member on here since 2005 and am 41 years old and a keen weather freak all my life so I am a little offended as I see have a decent understanding and experience of previous cold spells and non events.  

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, Paul said:

Steady as she goes on the UKV 15z, following a very similar theme to the 3z this morning, bringing deep cold virtually countrywide on Sunday, along with a good rash of snow showers from the east.

 

How reliable is this UKV, Paul?

[NewEra21]

3 minutes ago, Paul said:

Steady as she goes on the UKV 15z, following a very similar theme to the 3z this morning, bringing deep cold virtually countrywide on Sunday, along with a good rash of snow showers from the east.

 

Now this looks good!

[Paul]

Just now, D.V.R said:

How reliable is this UKV, Paul?

It's the met office's operational, flagship hi-res deterministic model, so it's pretty good!

It obviously has it's moments just as any other model of course, none of them are 100%.

[TSNWK]

Just now, Dj fart said:

Yes, but s getting pushed back and back. Starting to think it'll never actually arrive. 

 

Friend of mine is in the emergency planning dept down here and has sent me a photo of an update they've received from the Met O...looks unlike most of he output being modelled. Only sent to him today as well so not using old data. We shall see... 

and... don’t  leave us hanging........,:)