Model output discussion 10/02/21

[phil nw.]

A new thread to continue discussions.

The beast duly arrived and we are now in the middle of a very cold week with many of us having experienced sub-zero temperatures and some snowfall.

UKMO 850hPa t24hrs

The next period of interest is now fast approaching as models show the Atlantic coming up against the current blocking high to our east towards the weekend.

T84 fax

Finer detail on the progress of this battle is slightly different on the models as the fronts meet the cold block of air currently over the UK.The question remains will the mild win eventually or will there be further twists? More fascinating model charts to come by the looks of it.

Just a reminder only model discussion in this thread please folks.

Other threads that will be useful below

General Winter chat thread is here

 https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/94934-winter-202021-chat-ramps-moans-and-banter/?do=getNewComment

Met.Office thread  here

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/?do=getNewComment

Regional threads here

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

 

Thanks all and on we go.

 

 

[SqueakheartLW]

This AO must be a near record negative level by now

You would think with such a negative value that mild weather was off the table but the NAO tells a different story

More or less neutral for the foreseeable. Guess main route for any cold based on this is via the Scandi High/Euro trough route with no real -NAO

[Don]

6 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

This AO must be a near record negative level by now

You would think with such a negative value that mild weather was off the table but the NAO tells a different story

More or less neutral for the foreseeable. Guess main route for any cold based on this is via the Scandi High/Euro trough route with no real -NAO

The NAO has been neutral to weakly negative most of the winter.

[sheikhy]

Gfs 12z rolling @Battleground Snow!!!!need to see it continue from the 06z!!!i personally think its gona downgrade a bit but i hope im wrong!!

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs 12z rolling @Battleground Snow!!!!need to see it continue from the 06z!!!i personally think its gona downgrade a bit but i hope im wrong!!

Yes the icon is awful so I'm not even going to post it.

Shifts the high east

Edited February 10, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[SqueakheartLW]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs 12z rolling @Battleground Snow!!!!need to see it continue from the 06z!!!i personally think its gona downgrade a bit but i hope im wrong!!

Well we hope for an upgrade but if GEM and ECM are not on board then I hold little hope of the cold either continuing or returning next week

[SqueakheartLW]

This is a good start. 12z GFS attempting to push colder uppers back in again already at 48 hours away

[Battleground Snow]

GFS at 114, need them shortwaves in the Atlantic to behave and put pressure on the bottom of the high and not the top.

 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS at 114, need them shortwaves in the Atlantic to behave and put pressure on the bottom of the high and not the top.

 

Not a bad start!!very similar to 06z but difference to the east more than west!!

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS at 114, need them shortwaves in the Atlantic to behave and put pressure on the bottom of the high and not the top.

 

Those shortwaves look like they will put more pressure on the top of the high?

[TSNWK]

by Monday the 0 850 was over lands end on the 06z this run its over London.

Yep one chase after a few days in the regionals and its appears I might have fallen at the 1st.....

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo too far east at 144.

 

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Those shortwaves look like they will put more pressure on the top of the high?

Need them to dig south east later into the run

[SqueakheartLW]

This low is the problem

 

If this shoots NE then high sinks down to usual Sceuro and cold hopes are finished

It would be better if it stalls and pushes SE and causes the high to push north

Edited February 10, 2021 by SqueakheartLW

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo too far east at 144.

 

Dont think this is over yet mate!!enough to tell me maybe we need to hang back a little!!ukmo is different at 144 hours compared to this morning so a lot going on i reckon!

[Battleground Snow]

The para is what we want, it's alot better, more robust high.

114 attached

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo too far east at 144.

 

Similar to GFS now at 144, so although looking unlikely, if the GFS could pull something out the bag inspite of that dreaded shortwave, we could almost say 2/2, yes a big leap of faith laced with some over positivity but...................

[Jas142]

Guys would one of you be able to explain what is moving the scandi high? Is it the jet stream or what? New to this and always wondered how forecasting what a polar vortex does or doesn’t do to affect the weather boggles me as I’m sure it does to a super computer. Less than 36 hours ago the scandi high was keeping us freezing for a couple weeks yet now it seems that it’s losing out to a low pressure. It’s all a bit beyond me. Thanks jas

[sheikhy]

The thing is even at 162 hours the block is still there and front are struggling to get any further than us!!!this is not over by a long way!!!especially if ecm moves towards gfs!

[Battleground Snow]

Para is sending the beast back to us as early as day 6.

[IDO]

Not bad from the gfs, not a lost call, with surface cold remaining, no mild trend by d7:

[SqueakheartLW]

We really need a big shot of WWA from this point to get back to cold

1 - Look at that deep cold pool we could end up with if things go as I have shown. Cold air follows yellow arrows until it gets to UK

2 - Warm air waiting down to the south pushes in the direction of the red arrow and forces the high back north again opening the gates to that deep cold which should have pushed into eastern Europe by the time this happens

[Tim Bland]

GFSp looks better regarding a snowy breakdown then has a better scandi high .. 

[Djdazzle]

One thing to hope for is that shortwaves are really hard to model correctly.

[Ice Day]

Been in the regionals for the last few days so only kept a watching brief on the models.  From what I'm seeing, we're definitely in the game for a final winter hurrah for late Feb/early March.  Looking at the UKMO, GFS and Para at 144 there are definitely paths to another easterly, although the prize goes to the Para at this point.