Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[bluearmy]

Gfs has the same ec46 anomalies posted earlier by NWS but you can see how the width of that envelope isn’t necessarily great for the U.K. 

[Battleground Snow]

6 minutes ago, Dennis said:

by EC

Very nice Dennis, could be a lengthy cold spell if this is correct.

I've attached the CPC charts that have dates on.

Quick comment on the GFS 18z, it's weakness is still blowing up lows that spawn of the vortex, this is most likely incorrect

Edited November 29, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[tight isobar]

On 29/11/2021 at 22:27, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs is a lot better but still needs more backtracking to match the ECM at 168.

 

From its ooz run was always gonna be a slow stride bk- but the stride bk is on.. it’s clear to see

[Allseasons-Si]

TBF the gfs 18z towards day ten does match the cpc for that time period with trough through the UK with a scrussian high..

now can we back this pattern further SW?

[Penrith Snow]

Fantastic ECM tonight but like others I remember ‘That ECM’ in December 2012 that evaporated overnight. I will be viewing the 00z ECM from under the bed sheets

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

TBF the gfs 18z towards day ten does match the cpc for that time period with trough through the UK with a scrussian high..

now can we back this pattern further SW?

Think it would be better if we started from a position where it wasn’t so far  east in the first place like the ECM.  But this is all within a large envelope of uncertainty.  That envelope has tonight included many more cold options, I think.  Let’s see what tomorrow’s runs bring.  

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Fantastic ECM tonight but like others I remember ‘That ECM’ in December 2012 that evaporated overnight. I will be viewing the 00z ECM from under the bed sheets

We’re not there yet, much more uncertainty at the moment than when that went all wrong!  I’ll pay scant regard to the morning runs as usual.  And see you all for the 12s!

[Lukesluckybunch]

pretty poor gfs again,although there were some hints it was coming back in line with ECM

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

pretty poor gfs again,although there were some hints it was coming back in line with ECM

Back in line?  Only yesterday we were screaming for the ECM to come in line with the GFS!!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

well i mean from tonights ECM.assuming it has got this right haha

[Dennis]

A goodnight to all from Norway : a snowy evening here and i think tomorrow i could see 10+ cm 

[Allseasons-Si]

Hang on in there chaps as there will be more out's appearing with wild swings to come yet,....don't loose any sleep over it,...it's not worth it

the gfs has a tendency to over-blow lows in the Atlantic and as we know these downgrade with time,...the blocking to the NE looks to be in place as it stands from most of the NWP models and we know how blocks can be hard to shift 

sit tight for a couple of days whilst the noise becomes clearer

i have got to say this though,...don't give me that failed easterly again at 72 hours,...i haven't a fence to sit on after Arwen

Edited November 29, 2021 by Allseasons-si
added info

[Stu_London]

All the really interesting stuff (if there is any) is way beyond the reliable timeframe.

I don't expect the models to start to converge for a while yet for the mid December period - perhaps another 4 days before we get a clear signal.

Much as it looks amazing, I am not buying the ECM at this point. On the flip side the GFS is probably up to its over progressive tricks again. 

I would recommend that until some sort of pattern emerges with decent cross model agreement and so sort of ensemble trend, then just enjoy the rollercoaster and don't get too hung up on specifics. 

While the background and teleconnections aren't looking too bad, the UK has a knack of avoiding (completely or the worst of) cold spells that look like that are coming down the track. 

 

 

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

A very interesting winter to come. As history tells me, anything beyond 150-180 hours is just pure speculation. 

I’ve just watched Gav Partridge’s final winter update. With an Easterly based QBO and a SSW (If we get one), then we could be odds on to see a cold winter, with lots of N Blocking. The winter of 62/63 had a SSW event in late Dec/January, with an E based QBO, and also a teaser winter preceding it (61/62) which could be likened to last winter (20/21). Not saying it will be anything like that, but going by past records, you won’t get much nearer to the same pieces of the puzzle lining up.  His official winter forecast is due to take place on Thursday evening. 

[Duane S.]

I keep thinking back to December 2012. The despair, the despondency, the dejection with the infamous failed ECM and perceived missed opportunities around early/mid December’12.

What most of us were missing at the time was that these were the building blocks to a cold spell that hit early the following month. That ECM, if it had come off, would’ve been an additional bonus.

Are we getting a bit of a wintery bonus now I wonder, with the main course to follow as we head towards Xmas? As there are definitely some similarities here. Maybe bought forward a couple of weeks in the season, compared to that period 9 years ago.

[Mike Poole]

17 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I keep thinking back to December 2012. The despair, the despondency, the dejection with the infamous failed ECM and perceived missed opportunities around early/mid December’12.

What most of us were missing at the time was that these were the building blocks to a cold spell that hit early the following month. That ECM, if it had come off, would’ve been an additional bonus.

Are we getting a bit of a wintery bonus now I wonder, with the main course to follow as we head towards Xmas? As there are definitely some similarities here. Maybe bought forward a couple of weeks in the season, compared to that period 9 years ago.

That’s an interesting idea, but it is higher risk this early in the season.  I think the main course might deliver in the run up to Christmas, but not because of some models that were wrong in 2012.  If I’m right about the current set up, there is evidence that a cold, possibly very cold, set up is likely.  Just probabilities though, no guarantee.  

[A Frayed Knot]

AS YOU ALL KNOW IT'S LOOKING COLD FOR THE SEEABLE FUTURE A FEW MILD INCLUSIONS HERE AND THERE BUT GOING INTO THE  CHRISTMAS PERIOD ITS LOOKING COLD. STAY IN THE BLUE AND OUT OF THE RED THERE'S NOTHING IN THIS GAME WITH 2 IN THE BED.

[tight isobar]

And - we are back via format energy resources - resolve!!. Non segregated sister lobe.. this will be a run to savour

[PiscesStar]

14 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

And - we are back via format energy resources - resolve!!. Non segregated sister lobe.. this will be a run to savour

Morning mate... I've been watching nervously to see How this all pans out. How's it looking from your perspective??  

[That ECM]

T144 Ukmo and gfs. Look at the difference. Bit pointless going any further tbh. 

[tight isobar]

For all the want and wait.. we get ET,, anyway bk in the real world ,we have firing in all block cylinders. We only need disturbance - and the differential- is vast.. gfs: recalls the signal . - but ina drunkenly swayed state...

Edited November 30, 2021 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

On 30/11/2021 at 04:42, That ECM said:

T144 Ukmo and gfs. Look at the difference. Bit pointless going any further tbh. 

Well apart from the extended @ukmo we cannot anyway

[tight isobar]

An exacting example of why the GFS likely picked the signal up initially.. for a height building force into the upper lattidudes. For input data for oceanic spawn. As again like a broken record, the rest will follow in momentum sequence!- we are trough jackpot holders

Edited November 30, 2021 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

And as anyone can gfs  goes blow up crazy- with projections that are nigh on impossible- against the evolution... but stepping bk to clinical format., I’m standing with her @gfs.. when agree- is achieved... she’ll lead the squadron..@example- dartboard folding.... its 144 hrs... MAXIMUM- atm.. then the divergent alleys, are non worthy of walking down..

Edited November 30, 2021 by tight isobar

[mulzy]

Underwhelming runs this morning (UKM, GFS).  Too much energy in the northern arm not allowing wedges to form.  If ECM follows then the pendulum has moved to a mobile westerly flow in the medium term.