Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[Sunny76]

6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Looking forward to northern blocking in the spring again,which is a regular theme now,even if its not that warm,at least it not very wet and not much wind,and you actually se the sun,this weather is rubbish,maybe mild but hardly any sun,lots of rain,bet anything high pressure wont be in the Azores in summer either  when you would like it to be,typical

Just the constant cloudiness that’s plagued our shores since mid June 2021 has impacted our weather to some extent. 

[NEVES SCREAMER]

4 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Looking forward to northern blocking in the spring again,which is a regular theme now,even if its not that warm,at least it not very wet and not much wind,and you actually se the sun,this weather is rubbish,maybe mild but hardly any sun,lots of rain,bet anything high pressure wont be in the Azores in summer either  when you would like it to be,typical

Oh I don't know. Yeaterday and the day before were quite bright with sunny intervals and a lovely 14/15c to boot. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

33 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Good agreement this evening for a build in pressure from the south around day 8-10. This can lead to better places, however we've already been there in mid December and the vortex stomped out any decent attempt at advances.

Also worth pointing out the fact that after some dabbling it's evident that in the CET history there is no example of a colder than avg Jan/Feb combined period following a mild Sep (top 10% percentile) and a Dec C.E.T amply above avg/ 5.0. There are occurrences of a colder than avg Jan/Feb following mild instances of other months, as per the attached plot.

That actually provides the evidence that I have said all along - that it is very rare to get a cold winter after a notably warm September.  I have always thought that there is a bit of a link between a warm September and the following winter being mild or a small chance that it will be average, and virtually no chance of a colder than average winter to follow.  Whereas on the other hand I find that there is no evidence to suggest that the September theory works the other way round - many cool or average Septembers have been followed by an equal mix of winters.  I can also think of cold winters that have followed Septembers that were slightly above average rather than very warm (1978, 2009), and the warmest September that I can think of that led to a good winter for cold was 1985 (14.6).  I cannot think of any September with a CET of more than 14.6 that led to a good winter for cold.  I always think that if you want a cold winter, one of the things you do not want to see is much warmer conditions than is average in September, which I always think reduces the chances of cold weather during the following winter.

Edited January 2, 2022 by North-Easterly Blast

[Hull 1963]

10 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

That actually provides the evidence that I have said all along - that it is very rare to get a cold winter after a notably warm September.  I have always thought that there is a bit of a link between a warm September and the following winter being mild or a small chance that it will be average, and virtually no chance of a colder than average winter to follow.  Whereas on the other hand I find that there is no evidence to suggest that the September theory works the other way round - many cool or average Septembers have been followed by an equal mix of winters.  I can also think of cold winters that have followed Septembers that were slightly above average rather than very warm (1978, 2009), and the warmest September that I can think of that led to a good winter for cold was 1985 (14.6).  I cannot think of any September with a CET of more than 14.6 that led to a good winter for cold.

Been in my mid 60s I've certainly seen a good few winters in my time including snowy ones and dry ones.   During that time I can also say that I remember some Septembers and Octobers been really mild but then followed with quite bad winters with some fair accumulations of snow.  The early 1970s and early 1980s spring to mind.  It was during those periods that we had one or two mild Septembers and also very mild Octobers, but were followed by some extreme snowy weather episodes, usually in January and February.    I simply see no evidence whatsoever of mild Septembers leading to mild winters. Its all pure coincidence if that happens in my honest opinion.     With regards to this January onward.  Things are changing at such short notice that it's almost impossible to say with any certainty what will happen beyond 5 days at the moment. Those that come on here saying silly things like "winter over" etc. Are just showing their lack of life experience where weather is concerned.  I believe there will be one or two surprises this month and next , especially for those coldies on here.  

[LetItSnow!]

1 minute ago, Hull 1963 said:

Been in my mid 60s I've certainly seen a good few winters in my time including snowy ones and dry ones.   During that time I can also say that I remember some Septembers and Octobers been really mild but then followed with quite bad winters with some fair accumulations of snow.  The early 1970s and early 1980s spring to mind.  It was during those periods that we had one or two mild Septembers and also very mild Octobers, but were followed by some extreme snowy weather episodes, usually in January and February.    I simply see no evidence whatsoever of mild Septembers leading to mild winters. Its all pure coincidence if that happens in my honest opinion.     With regards to this January onward.  Things are changing at such short notice that it's almost impossible to say with any certainty what will happen beyond 5 days at the moment. Those that come on here saying silly things like "winter over" etc. Are just showing their lack of life experience where weather is concerned.  I believe there will be one or two surprises this month and next , especially for those coldies on here.  

I think the issue with the hot September theory is that there may very well be some trend that coincides with with warm patterns in September which leads to mild winters but with reliable records only going back to 1659 it's really not enough to say. It could just be a unusual coincedence like the poor summers in years ending with an 8 - a pattern that broke in 2018. Who knows how many warm Septembers there could have been in the thousands of years before 1659 that had cold winters afterwards. I won't digress further as its the model thread.

[Kasim Awan]

11 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

That actually provides the evidence that I have said all along - that it is very rare to get a cold winter after a notably warm September.  I have always thought that there is a bit of a link between a warm September and the following winter being mild or a small chance that it will be average, and virtually no chance of a colder than average winter to follow.  Whereas on the other hand I find that there is no evidence to suggest that the September theory works the other way round - many cool or average Septembers have been followed by an equal mix of winters.  I can also think of cold winters that have followed Septembers that were slightly above average rather than very warm (1978, 2009), and the warmest September that I can think of that led to a good winter for cold was 1985 (14.6).  I cannot think of any September with a CET of more than 14.6 that led to a good winter for cold.

> The link between September and December and a mild Jan/Feb combo is clear

>Spread of Jan/Feb combined C.E.T from Mild proceeding months & Mild Dec:

> Mild proceeding months alone (take out the mild Decembers) and Jan/Feb combined c.e.t . Barely a link -

 

> And also barely a link between mild proceeding months and the entire winter period. Slight tendency for milder outcome from mild Sep / Octs tho..

 

So weakish link between Sep/Oct temps & winter temps, stronger link for Sep& Dec mild combo & Jan/Feb.. doesn't bode great for this great but there are always anomalies..

 

 

[North-Easterly Blast]

7 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

I think the issue with the hot September theory is that there may very well be some trend that coincides with with warm patterns in September which leads to mild winters but with reliable records only going back to 1659 it's really not enough to say. It could just be a unusual coincedence like the poor summers in years ending with an 8 - a pattern that broke in 2018. Who knows how many warm Septembers there could have been in the thousands of years before 1659 that had cold winters afterwards. I won't digress further as its the model thread.

If there has never been a cold winter after a really warm September in 360 years + of records or at the very least not in the modern day (last 100 years) then the really warm September we have just had in 2021 did not and does not bode well for cold conditions during this winter.

[LetItSnow!]

2 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

If there has never been a cold winter after a really warm September in 360 years + of records or at the very least not in the modern day (last 100 years) then the really warm September we have just had in 2021 did not and does not bode well for cold conditions during this winter.

I did not state it wasn't, just that 1. pattern matching isn't really worth it in terms of forecasting and 2. as stated there may have been occurances of it happending before 1659. A quick glance through the C.E.T. data since 1659 shows a fair lot of cold winters following Septembers in the 15s, the one caveat being that quite a few happened in the 17th and 18th century. As you get to the 16s indeed you don't really get any so far. I don't think it should be used as an excuse to blindly believe that winter is over or that a cold winter is impossible. There is a trend there, but trends aren't definitive. There's a difference between acknowledging a trend and automatically writing off a winter which some people have a habit of doing. I'd be interested in further researching past Septembers pre-1659 to see if it happened then too but data is so sparse. Interesting nonetheless!

[sundog]

Taking the last 25 yrs , Septembers  98,01,06,11,16 and 21 were very warm ( correct me if I'm wrong).

We will see how the rest of this winter pans out  but I'm not optimistic.  But the years I mentioned were all followed by poor winters ( though I think se parts of England got decent cold first half of Feb 2012).

[Kasim Awan]

You are right @North-Easterly Blast cold Septembers have no link to the upcoming winter temp -

This plot gives a histogram spread of winter c.e.t. anomalies following Septembers, Octobers and Novembers with a value C.E.T in the lowest 30%.

The winters following cold Septembers are mixed, however unlike Sep there is a very slight tendency for a cold winter following a cold October/ November.

 

The September & October and the Oct/Nov mild combo - results in a fairly significant skew in the following winters towards the milder end - though there are some cold winters in there.

The cold combos.

The best cold combo to have is a cold Nov/Dec which results in a significant skew towards a cold winter..

Even so a cold Oct/Nov combo has a slight tendency for a cold winter.

 

Edited January 3, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[SLEETY]

Spring starts in January again looking at this mornings output,woeful,so many mild Januaries since 1987in UK and Europe in general.

 

Best book a winter holiday in USA or Canda to see decent winter conditions every year!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1477765688773296132

This tweet summed it up about January

 

Edited January 3, 2022 by SLEETY

[sundog]

Yet to record an air frost so far this season.  My fears about this winter after the September  we had is being realised......

Edited January 3, 2022 by sundog

[JoeShmoe]

I’m actually quite enjoying the milder weather this winter, if nothing else because otherwise the heating bills would be astronomical !

amyway it looks set to continue for at least the foreseeable with nothing remotely cold on the cards

[weathercold]

Whilst not wanting to derail the main model thread with I told you so posts as they benefit no one. I cannot understand the optimistic view of some posters based on current output. Comments like building blocks are firmly in place…it’s baffling to be honest. I think some are trying to inject positivity to lift spirits when the charts look so bleak for Jan cold and snow for most.

We have a strong PV, zero blocking, heights pushing up from the south…it’s grim.

I’ve seen absolutely nothing across the entire NWP suite that offers anything exciting for wintry prospects bar some fleeting showers this week.

We are fast approaching mid winter and here in the SE I’ve barely had a frost, not seen as much as a sleet shower…temps by day have not been close to freezing even once and last week we broke all records for warmth.

Maybe I’m viewing different output at the moment but you can’t spin what isn’t there. Some need an injection of realism sadly. I’m all for wanting cold and snow, I’m all for championing and ramping cold and snowy charts but to be a balanced/sensible poster when the charts are churning out the dross they are right now, call it how it is. We can all search deep to find one ensemble showing what we want or saying if x, y, z happens we can have a 91 scenario again..the reality is that’s pure hopecasting at its best. Whilst a scenario like that can always happen if you’re offering odds it’s a 100/1 shot like many other weather phenomena.

Apologies to rant here but the overly inaccurate and at times overly positive posts are misleading and it needs to be highlighted for those who are new to the forum and hang off every post when cold and snow is mentioned.

rant over 

All the best 

 

[Bradley in Kent]

Good morning all, 

With regards to warm Autumn and impact on following Winter, it seems that the stats are skewed by Climate Change. 

Northern / Scandi blocking isn't happening as much now in Winter and if so for only short periods thanks for more poleward energy from the tropics. 

It's just more likely when looking at a mild Winter, it has probably occurred post 1987 and hence occured in a warm background meaning the preceeding Autumn was also probably warm. All seasons, but especially Autumn and Winter, are mostly running above pre 90s average. 

Conversely, a cold Winter probably occurred during a generally colder than average year including Autumn.

Regarding now, I'm just going with the flow but looking forward to Spring. Winter in this country is a poxy season so have to make do with what we've got. I'll take zonal if it means nice clean air with good sunrises and sunsets. And, Spring wildlife prefers milder conditions so long as they stay mild through early Spring.

Edited January 3, 2022 by Bradley in Kent

[JoeShmoe]

Totally agree with the above, it’s like saying we have 2 elements out of 100 that point toward cold whilst ignoring the 98 that don’t. It could all change but all signs I see are pointing to a mild winter and that becoming a norm as the climate warms year on year 

[Bradley in Kent]

...it happens every year like a rubbish football team: will it be our year? Will we do well this season? 

We start off in hope where some models hint at a cold spell. It doesn't happen and by NYE we're already bottom of the table. By mid-season the hope has dried up and we're now in bumbling zombie mode. Towards the end of the season (February or March) we'll win a handful of games (or in weather terms some sun and snow) but it's too late and doesn't save the season! 

It ends with little to shout about 'oh well, onto next year' and the process repeats!

[LetItSnow!]

32 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Totally agree with the above, it’s like saying we have 2 elements out of 100 that point toward cold whilst ignoring the 98 that don’t. It could all change but all signs I see are pointing to a mild winter and that becoming a norm as the climate warms year on year 

Become a norm? It’s practically been the norm since December 1987 with very few exceptions  

[Snowboy111]

So 3-4 days ago the models were showing a big snow event midlands south. Possible blizzards too ! And what do we have today ? Light winds and belting it down with rain in the English channel!! Temps around 12C.  Cold air 350 miles away. Models are a shambles this winter. 

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, Bradley in Kent said:

...it happens every year like a rubbish football team: will it be our year? Will we do well this season? 

We start off in hope where some models hint at a cold spell. It doesn't happen and by NYE we're already bottom of the table. By mid-season the hope has dried up and we're now in bumbling zombie mode. Towards the end of the season (February or March) we'll win a handful of games (or in weather terms some sun and snow) but it's too late and doesn't save the season! 

It ends with little to shout about 'oh well, onto next year' and the process repeats!

I think the same can be said about summer also. 
 

After the cold winter of last year, when late March arrived, i was longing for the summer. Summer 2021 was a disappointing for us southerners, and one of the worst in living memory.

We get years like 2002, where you wait for winter, and it never comes, while you also wait for summer and that never comes.

If a long period of dull nothingness is what lies in store for the future of the U.K. climate I’ll be packing my bags. 

 

And to add, the recent mild spell during the last couple of days of 2021 will be forgotten in 2 years. It’s boring nothingness.

Similar to December 2015. Long dull periods of boring nothingness. 

Edited January 3, 2022 by Sunny76

[North-Easterly Blast]

5 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Become a norm? It’s practically been the norm since December 1987 with very few exceptions  

Well most winters since 1988 have been milder than the long term average prior to that time, apart from occasional blips around 1991, the mid 1990s and 2009, 2010 and 2013.  Apart from the odd colder blips on those occasions, most other winters of the last 30 odd years have been mild with only occasional short colder spells.

Edited January 3, 2022 by North-Easterly Blast

[Sunny76]

7 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Become a norm? It’s practically been the norm since December 1987 with very few exceptions  

It’s interesting to see December 1987 as the starting point of the warming.

That was probably my earliest memory of very mild weather around Christmas time, with clear sunny skies and temps into the mid teens. 
 

Most of Europe during the time was much milder than normal, and it was the mildest since 1974.

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Well most winters since 1988 have been milder than the long term average prior to that time, apart from occasional blips around 1991, the mid 1990s and 2009, 2010 and 2013.  Apart from the odd colder blips on those occasions, most other winters of the last 30 odd years have been mild with only occasional short colder spells.

90-91, 92-93, 93-94, 95-96, 96-97, 2000-01, 2003-2005(snow falling in January in all years, and early March 2005 I think), the late 2000s and early 10s period, 2017-18 and last winter 2020-21 all produced snowy or cold conditions.

Yes, mild winters are more common, but mild winters existed before 1987/88.

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

90-91, 92-93, 93-94, 95-96, 96-97, 2000-01, 2003-2005(snow falling in January in all years, and early March 2005 I think), the late 2000s and early 10s period, 2017-18 and last winter 2020-21 all produced snowy or cold conditions.

Yes, mild winters are more common, but mild winters existed before 1987/88.

I think that 1992-93 generally lacked snow overall, as Dec 1992 saw a rex block over the UK giving surface cold and not proper cold synoptics, and cold synoptics only occurred at the end of Feb in the 1992-93 winter.  More recently I would say that 2017-18 and 2020-21, although respectable when compared to recent winters, before 30 odd years ago both those winters would have been regarded as average overall.

[johncam]

A two day toppler then 10 days later a 1 day toppler in between mild nothingness mostly  that's it if the GFS is correct , let's hope not