Alternate Model Discussion - into 2022

[knocker]

Apart from the very strong winds some snow on the leading edge of the front tomorrow

 

[knocker]

The old OWS station Juliett would have been of interest

[knocker]

Windy with plenty of wintry showers and longer periods of rain Weds as the low fills over the country

 

[knocker]

After rapid cyclogenesis over the previous 24 hours the 06 ecm has storm Barra 960mb Galway at 1200 tomorrow

Some of the possib;le surface wind profiles

 

[knocker]

The WRF 3km

[knocker]

The movement of Barra and the associated occlusion today

http://hebweather.net/wrf/wrf.php?run=00z&region=BritishIsles&chart=Overview&time=9

Edited December 7, 2021 by knocker

[knocker]

A cold, showery and windy day on Weds, with some longer periods of rain, and some snow over the higher ground, courtesy of the wrap around occlusion as Barra fills over the north of England

And after a better day on Thursday further frontal rain, again some snow ovder high ground in the North, overnight Thursday into Friday morning

Edited December 7, 2021 by knocker

[RabbitEars]

Hello. I have been really enjoying reading this thread and growing my understanding... please can it be continued (and not just by Knocker who is such a stalwart on these forums).. there are plenty of knowledgeable forum members ... surely some of them can hop over from the mod thread (winter chase thread) to post some input in here? 

[Mizzle]

4 hours ago, RabbitEars said:

Hello. I have been really enjoying reading this thread and growing my understanding... please can it be continued (and not just by Knocker who is such a stalwart on these forums).. there are plenty of knowledgeable forum members ... surely some of them can hop over from the mod thread (winter chase thread) to post some input in here? 

I second this wholeheartedly. Knocker's post are excellent and it's a shame there aren't more of the knowledgeable members posting too. C'mon you clever guys n gals...let's be 'avin you!

[knocker]

Now that yesterdays frontal rain is slowly clearing the south east, today some heavy shoswers in western regions in the stong NW wind, with hail and thunder in the mix, but in the early hours another frontal system will bring further raim to western regions which will sweep east through Saturday and leaving the waving cold front straddled across the country on Sunday. Temps above average by now but with a marked N/S variation

The wave will develop quickly and track NNE, eventually shifting the front south east on Monday

Come Tuesaday another frontal system will bring further rain as it tracks across the north of the country

Before we arrive at wave breaking towards te end of the week but that's not for this thread

Edited December 10, 2021 by knocker

[knocker]

The 06 ecm

The wave that develops on the front and tracks NE late Sunday/early Monday could briefly bring some very strong winds to NE Scotland

 

Edited December 10, 2021 by knocker

[ITSY]

First post in a long time but the 06Z GEFS really caught me eye. The long range ens graphs should be very interesting indeed - a massive jump to colder outcomes by Christmas Day itself with an assortment of northerlies, easterlies, greenies and scandi blocks. It's all just trendlines at this point though. The first job is to get the UK high in place. We should worry about where it goes after that. So without pre-empting what happens over the Pacific or elsewhere in the coming weeks, take everything beyond the next week with a pinch of salt. Hopefully it comes good for us - the 06z is certainly an eyebrow raiser! 

Cambridge:

 

Newcastle

 
 

Holland 

[knocker]

This evening's take on the quite intense developing wave Sunday night that will briefly bring some very strong winds to NE Scotland

Edited December 10, 2021 by knocker

[knocker]

Cloud and rain spreading east today, and becoming milder in the warm sector, with some heavy pulses in the NW as the triple pont zips through

But tomorrow the cold front is left trailing across the country and a wave has been developing on this away to the south west and through Sunday it  continues to develop and track north east, bringing some very strong winds to NW Scotland and the Northern Isles late Sunday/early Monday

How strong and where depends on the precise track and intensity. ..the ecm this morning

Edited December 11, 2021 by knocker

[knocker]

[Jordan S]

A satellite view of the developing low for tomorrow to our southwest from eumetsat with the airmass included and the area of low pressure circled..

Will look impressive on satellite tomorrow as it moves across the western Isles.

The GFS on the low pressure systems development..

Here's the UKv charts with the low bringing a brief spell of stormy weather to the western Isles especially, but very strong winds for much of northern Scotland.

Mean winds speeds..

Gusts probably reaching 65-80mph (perhaps slightly more) lasting for 2-4 hours later tomorrow into Monday morning. Very windy for northern Ireland as well with gusts to 50-60mph possible in exposed areas later tomorrow.

Wind gusts..

Winds around the low increasing further after it clears to the northeast of the western Isles over the open waters, similar wind strength to the western Isles might move over Shetland during Monday morning, clearing by 12pm but the strongest winds from the low probably remaining to their west/northwest.

Further strong winds though not as strong move into these areas once again later Monday along with persistent rainfall over parts of western Scotland through Tuesday.

[Mizzle]

Such a shame this thread just isn't catching on. Nonetheless, thanks to those who tried and showed willing.

[damianslaw]

33 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

Such a shame this thread just isn't catching on. Nonetheless, thanks to those who tried and showed willing.

Probably because the short term outlook is very uninteresting and all attention is on 7 day plus timeframe. Indeed day to day variation looks minimal in days ahead..  barely anything to discuss other than how much cloud will there be.. very little if any precipitation and temps slowly going downhill. 

[knocker]

10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Probably because the short term outlook is very uninteresting and all attention is on 7 day plus timeframe. Indeed day to day variation looks minimal in days ahead..  barely anything to discuss other than how much cloud will there be.. very little if any precipitation and temps slowly going downhill. 

Uninterersting is by definition subjective. I have just wasted ten minutes zipping through the MOD thread which was about as interesting as watching paint dry. Imo, irrespective of personal interest, a more detailed meteorological look at the outputs in the reliable time frame  is always worthwhile for two reasons. Firstly, many people are interested in the detail for five days ahead, and secondly, you can get a grip on the likely evolution as the models enter the  more unreliable time frame. I will just leave it there because this is a much travelled road which leads nowhere.

[IceDaysAndBalticNights]

8 hours ago, knocker said:

Uninterersting is by definition subjective. I have just wasted ten minutes zipping through the MOD thread which was about as interesting as watching paint dry. Imo, irrespective of personal interest, a more detailed meteorological look at the outputs in the reliable time frame  is always worthwhile for two reasons. Firstly, many people are interested in the detail for five days ahead, and secondly, you can get a grip on the likely evolution as the models enter the  more unreliable time frame. I will just leave it there because this is a much travelled road which leads nowhere.

Couldn't agree more knocker I love your posts they are always unbiased and professional, I won't be going into the MOD thread again as it's full of hopecasting, wishfull thinking and complete and utter meltdowns if the models don't show what they wan't it's embarrassing. 

[knocker]

Over the rest of this week and the beginning of next high pressure remains in charge but the alignment and position does adjust NW, courtesy of some upstream changes involving the Aleutian ridge/tpv lobe northern Canada and the position of the jet  So over the next couple of days very cloudy with early morning fog in some places that will be slow to clear and very mild

And then comes the slow adjustment, albeit cloud still likely an issue, but temps dropping to a tad below average by Monday

and thus onwards to the energy distribution issues though next week and the Xmas weekend

[knocker]

And just out of interest vis 850mb/surface temps in an anticyclone the midnight Camborne ascent. Both are around 10C with a large inversion/Sc layer in between

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

My memory could be trying to confuse me, but feels like it’s been a long while since we last had a High Pressure system taking a tour of the UK in December. Particularly as strong as this:

Something that the models do seem to show for next few days, so a good few settled and dry days ahead, even if not always bright or sunny. The examples above from tomorrow mid-day up to Tuesday next week (where most of the High could start getting drawn up towards Iceland/Greenland). 

Which brings me onto another thing - I anticipate this is what could happen with the teddies and stuff should the possible cold and wintry spell a lot are after not come off later next week

[richie3846]

5 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

My memory could be trying to confuse me, but feels like it’s been a long while since we last had a High Pressure system taking a tour of the UK in December. Particularly as strong as this:

Something that the models do seem to show for next few days, so a good few settled and dry days ahead, even if not always bright or sunny. The examples above from tomorrow mid-day up to Tuesday next week (where most of the High could start getting drawn up towards Iceland/Greenland). 

Which brings me onto another thing - I anticipate this is what could happen with the teddies and stuff should the possible cold and wintry spell a lot are after not come off later next week

Are you referring to toys being flung out of prams?

[Mizzle]

On 13/12/2021 at 23:28, damianslaw said:

Probably because the short term outlook is very uninteresting and all attention is on 7 day plus timeframe. Indeed day to day variation looks minimal in days ahead..  barely anything to discuss other than how much cloud will there be.. very little if any precipitation and temps slowly going downhill. 

I understand your point with regard to current outlook in terms of the current calm in the weather. But I like the short term overviews because it helps me get a better handle on learning how weather systems evolve when I can focus on the reliable. I enjoy the winter chase in the MOD thread ( as an ever hopeful coldie), but it can be so confusing with discussions around different evolutions, across multiple models, over extended time frames

So many thanks again @knockerfor your valuable and enjoyable posts.