Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Didn't quite make it at 120

And won’t now!. White Christmas dreams south of upper altitude northern England/ Scotland.. tbc, are gone!.. but the always likely part @ post Xmas day gets even more interesting!..

[Captain Shortwave]

Well a complete flip in 24 hours. The GFS and GEM trying to keep some interest going over the Christmas period....

   

Low pressure running east close to the south coast.

The UKMO and ECM however are not interested and instead establish cyclonic conditions with the Atlantic low in charge...

   

I am not even sure how much influence the Scandi trough will have later on with the latter two. I guess at the very least there is still no consistency.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

That’s a done deal now I’d say, what a waste of an opportunity of what would have been a great Xmas present for many ️ 

Absolute shocker of a run,we are now clutching at straws regarding this Xmas cold! Today's 12z runs and tomorrow's will be last throw of the dice

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

That’s a done deal now I’d say, what a waste of an opportunity of what would have been a great Xmas present for many ️ 

Now we need to scour the further output for signs we can get another ridge up where we need it. 

[KTtom]

So, bearing in mind, the GFS has to be binned (we've been told on numerous days now its rubbish), then its safe to say we have had our first, probably of many, major let downs of the winter by getting excited by charts +144 hrs (strange it never happens the other way around!).

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Ukmo and ecm aren't both going to be wrong at 120hrs. Sorry but game over

[smith25]

O well just another wobble.  Tomorrows runs are pretty much the deadline for me personally.  Like most of us here we've seen this time and time again when the models seem to struggle and it could just go back to showing the original cold spell later today.

[smith25]

2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Ukmo and ecm aren't both going to be wrong at 120hrs. Sorry but game over

It's happened before so don't discount anything yet.

[bazookabob]

18 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Yes we may be ok here at 120

On the other hand, we may not! 

[booferking]

Ukmo diverse from the rest of the models as early as 96hr by having 1 big low while the rest spilt into 2 then the ecm proceeds to follow ukmo at 120hr while the rest shot the first low south east through the country while ecm and ukmo blow it up over the Atlantic like a big octopus legs.

[Scandinavian High.]

Didn’t we lose an easterly at t72 

[weathercold]

Game over! On to the next chase …it’s been fun this one, (I think)

Edited December 20, 2021 by weathercold

[booferking]

Hurricane incoming just after boxing day ecm.

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Ukmo diverse from the rest of the models as early as 96hr by having 1 big low while the rest spilt into 2 then the ecm proceeds to follow ukmo at 120hr while the rest shot the first low south east through the country while ecm and ukmo blow it up over the Atlantic like a big octopus legs.

It’s all residual energy from the usual spanner in the works @ pv limpit point Canada mother lobe.. and just shouts even when she’s not home.. she sends out her malicious spawned off springs -to scupper the desired crave for the uk.. hard work is an understatement!

Edited December 20, 2021 by tight isobar

[carinthian]

1 minute ago, weathercold said:

Game over! On to the next chase …it’s been fun thus one, (I think)

 I am not sure even Christmas Day is decided yet ! Think the ECM run may be well top of the AVG for mild.

C

[O'Maille80]

1 minute ago, weathercold said:

Game over! On to the next chase …it’s been fun this one, (I think)

Nah! Way too early to call this yet. It's too inconsistent. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM Going horribly wrong here..could be outlier can't see it being like this

[Mark Smithy]

Must admit I am really surprised at the cave-in.

GFS may overdo the progressive Atlantic but it has been so much more accurate this time than the euros. GEM and ECM were showing charts that now bear absolutely no relation to the reality.

Sad. 

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Hurricane incoming just after boxing day ecm.

[Ali1977]

Strangely enough the best looking thing for cold is now the METO update they’ve been most accurate all along - and their last update reads more GFS than ECM !! This really is straw clutching though 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Ali1977

[booferking]

1 minute ago, carinthian said:

 I am not sure even Christmas Day is decided yet ! Think the ECM run may be well top of the AVG for mild.

C

You would have to think it's of the scale warmer against the mean.

[cyclonic happiness]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Now we know this run won't come off. those hurricane-like storms are even more rare than cold spells in the southern UK.

I'll hang my hat up on Wednesday morning, but not until. Plenty of time for change, and as we've all seen, there's been a LOT of change in the outputs run to run

[weathercold]

2 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

Nah! Way too early to call this yet. It's too inconsistent. 

Bar GFS the NWP is only going one way here 

[tight isobar]

Just now, cyclonic happiness said:

Now we know this run won't come off. those hurricane-like storms are even more rare than cold spells in the southern UK.

I'll hang my hat up on Wednesday morning, but not until. Plenty of time for change, and as we've all seen, there's been a LOT of change in the outputs run to run

It’s not impossible, especially with the atmospheric confusion!.. but it’s a sinking ship now.. no hiding.. at least as far as this side of the year goes!.. but stranger things have happened?!!

[MattStoke]

Suddenly it’s the GFS that is the coldest and most wintry whilst the ECM and UKMO are much milder.

Still people talking as if something several days ahead is a done deal when we have a highly complex situation with continuing model disagreement. Really irritating. Some people will never learn.