Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[Climate Man]

On a brighter note, the west Oberian/Aszores high has been pushed south in the last 24 hrs.

[NewEra21]

12 minutes ago, booferking said:

Hurricane incoming just after boxing day ecm.

Boom, just what a chart that is!!!

Trying some reverse phychology with the booms, as whenever the booms come out for cold charts they flip to mild instantly

Edited December 20, 2021 by NewEra21

[Climate Man]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Suddenly it’s the GFS that is the coldest and most wintry whilst the ECM and UKMO are much milder.

Still people talking as if something several days ahead is a done deal when we have a highly complex situation with continuing model disagreement. Really irritating. Some people will never learn.

Accused you of being too negative a week or so ago but think we really ate at the end if the road.  However,  all to play for post Christmas. 

[Ultima Thule]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Suddenly it’s the GFS that is the coldest and most wintry whilst the ECM and UKMO are much milder.

Still people talking as if something several days ahead is a done deal when we have a highly complex situation with continuing model disagreement. Really irritating. Some people will never learn.

Yes buddy, the FI window for 25th may come down to t48-t72 so we may not be resolved until Wednesday afternoon!

[O'Maille80]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Suddenly it’s the GFS that is the coldest and most wintry whilst the ECM and UKMO are much milder.

Still people talking as if something several days ahead is a done deal when we have a highly complex situation with continuing model disagreement. Really irritating. Some people will never learn.

Exactly dude. It could well be a bust but I'm not convinced by any of the flip flip wibbleers.

[cyclonic happiness]

Well,  at least the States are almost entirely covered in warm anomalies, and we all know that very cold weather in the States causes raging zonality over this side of the pond, so that's a good side going forward.

We may just lose out on Christmas day, but thereafter I think a good cold spell is still in the offing 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Suddenly it’s the GFS that is the coldest and most wintry whilst the ECM and UKMO are much milder.

Still people talking as if something several days ahead is a done deal when we have a highly complex situation with continuing model disagreement. Really irritating. Some people will never learn.

Trouble is pal it’s ironic, that through all the divergence via the lead mods... just as we are at point deciphering. The top two agree within the preety much reliable @120. So it’s gonna have to be now quite some back step..@ sadly!

[mulzy]

Don;t shoot me but ECM day 10 shows promise.  Very amplified.

[Ali1977]

We could chase day 10s again 

[seajamiet]

I don't think people need to throw in the towel just yet. There's clearly still different solutions on offer. Need to wait for more cross model agreement I'd say and I just don't think we have that yet.

[supernova]

A wet, windy and wild Storm Corrie or a white Christmas for the south midlands north with cold to extend thereafter….take your pick! Haven’t got a Scooby and neither have the models because they can’t work out the shape of the Atlantic low (one slice or two Sir?) and the southerly strength of the blocking wedge. A complete flip as GFS/GEM and all other “lesser” models go cold but UKMO/ECM do a u-turn, blow up the low in situ and go milder. NOT resolved, but that won’t stop people claiming a definitive outcome based on model preference despite the fact there are absolutely no prizes on offer for guessing correctly. See you tonight. Winter is not over, whatever gets posted.

Edited December 20, 2021 by supernova

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Well,  at least the States are almost entirely covered in warm anomalies, and we all know that very cold weather in the States causes raging zonality over this side of the pond, so that's a good side going forward.

We may just lose out on Christmas day, but thereafter I think a good cold spell is still in the offing 

Definitely. We all kept on pocking ( myself included) for every given route for Xmas cold snow- country wide. But knowing deep down, into the new year was- if even- the golden ticket zone.

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Trouble is pal it’s ironic, that through all the divergence via the lead mods... just as we are at point deciphering. The top two agree within the preety much reliable @120. So it’s gonna have to be now quite some back step..@ sadly!

Sure the trend isn’t good and the top two models going milder would have to make that the more likely outcome. It’s just daft and annoying when people talk as if something is certain rather than saying things are weighted a certain way. Little is ever certain in weather, not least in the very complex setups.

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Don;t shoot me but ECM day 10 shows promise.  Very amplified.

Indeed.. On to the next chase

[tight isobar]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Sure the trend isn’t good and the top two models going milder would have to make that the more likely outcome. It’s just daft and annoying when people talk as if something is certain rather than saying things are weighted a certain way. Little is ever certain in weather, not least in the very complex setups.

Yeah you’ve definitely got a point/points . I’d love a big revert, for modelling for the nxt7/12 days... we can only hope

[MattStoke]

19 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

Accused you of being too negative a week or so ago but think we really ate at the end if the road.  However,  all to play for post Christmas. 

Can’t say I recall that? I try to be more level headed these days than when I first joined these forums years ago. Too many model flips and sagas over the years

I recall a few times just last winter where up until +12 hours ahead models all had fronts/snow risk staying south or west of my area only for them to eventually stall right over me and make my location the ‘sweet spot’. Quite a different setup this time but still, shouldn’t ever take things as certain!

Edited December 20, 2021 by MattStoke

[Malarky]

Can anyone comment on the GEM?

[cyclonic happiness]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Can’t say I recall that? I try to be more level headed these days than when I first joined these forums years ago. Too many model flips and sagas over the years

I agree with you. I have an almost masochistic desire for it to all go pear shaped at the last minute, just so I can tell myself "I told you so....seee! it's all gone wrong again!"

[Ali1977]

Not sure what some models are but many good gold by Boxing Day still

[tight isobar]

 The Canadian looks cracking.. Xmas eve onwards.. I’m going to bed

[nick sussex]

Well that was deflating!

I viewed the GFS first and thought great , UK coldies might yet get a decent festive period and then both the ECM and UKMO turnout some poor runs.

The ECM does have another jam tomorrow scenario developing by day 10 but really not sure coldies need another tease !

Can the Euros be wrong again as they were yesterday .

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, Malarky said:

Can anyone comment on the GEM?

Itsa cracker

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

 The Canadian looks cracking.. Xmas eve onwards.. I’m going to bed

Just to say thank you for your unquiqe posting here  

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Just to say thank you for your unquiqe posting here  

It’s good v- good for Xmas/ boxing day.. But crashes quickly. And without gfs/ecm in toe... I’m not pricking my ears up

[Duane S.]

This is an unusual and complex set up for the models and professional forecasters alike. This tends to get banded around way too much, as often the models struggle, but I think right now is one of the worst I can remember.

And I certainly don’t think we can throw in the towel at this stage but clearly the likelihood of a UK white Christmas has taken a dive with the EC and UK chart output this morning. I’d say the southern contingent are close (but still not completely) to being out of the game for the big day itself, but if I was, say, Midlands northwards, I wouldn’t be losing heart yet, far from…

Boxing Day onwards, nothing is decided! This is far from being over.Compulsive viewing.