Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[Kasim Awan]

Gfs control in and it's a shocker. 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Tim Bland]

Big, massive, huge ECM coming up…Probably the most important of our lifetime…at least until the 00z …

[Daniel*]

Well GEFS also seem interested in stretching out this commotion

Edited December 20, 2021 by Daniel*

[Mucka]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Big, massive, huge ECM coming up…Probably the most important of our lifetime…at least until the 00z …

Prediction.

It will be conclusive in continuing the uncertainty.

I reckon it will be one of two extremes, pushing the low into the continent or following up the horror of the 00z.

The models have a sense of humour,  a very dark one.

[supernova]

UKMO Extended. Oh go on then. 

[Tim Bland]

I’ll take the control! 

[Eagle Eye]

Who's going to be the first to say massive outlier 

Because I don't think it is, the MOGREPS have been showing more and more colder ensembles, it was going to come one time or another 

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Xmas day mean.

Has anyone mentioned it is on a knife edge?

That is looking blizzardesque. Not definite but possible.

Blizzards are formed on knifedges.

[blizzard81]

10 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Nah, just made it up to make you feel better!

Only joking mate. Yes I read it somewhere. And heard it on Gav's Weather Vids before as well...

Ha ha Nice one my friend

[minus10]

4 minutes ago, supernova said:

Doesn't just back the Op, @Mucka  it trumps it. Proper Easterly.

Wow, that is quite something watching the cold move south towards boxing day on control. You couldnt make this up....what a chase and at this time of year!!!

[Stabilo19]

Boxing day snow on offer for parts of Wales & Midlands..

Those "game over" posts were a bit premature? There's too much volatility to rule out anything yet. 

 

[Don]

5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

It's just one piece of a very large jigsaw Don. The last solar minimum went on for several years longer than expected.. solar activity began to peak again in 2009 but we still ended up with the bad winter of 09/10 and December 2010. Some say its when we are entering out of them that  colder conditions can take hold..but so many other factors that can override that particular signal. So I'm not really concerned,and more so at this stage of the cycle.

Winter 09/10 and December 2010 bad?!  Go and wash your mouth out with soap!  

No, I agree ref solar activity, an uptick probably won't be an issue at this stage of the cycle.  It might be more impactful next winter, but like you say, one piece of a very large jigsaw.  For example, 1981/82 happened around solar max.

[Bartlett High]

Set the controls to continue the fun!!

[Kasim Awan]

23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

perception is lacking in the models ……

Are you looking at precip on the model Kasim ??.

I am looking at the k.a.s.i snow model

[seabreeze86]

GEM also bring the colder air in quicker 

[Guest]

Christ, I don't know how much longer I want to stay on this rollercoaster! It's one of those that goes on for too long and makes you barf up your lunch. We're on the next nerve-shredding incline, aren't we 

Bring on the ECM 

[Captain Shortwave]

GEM Day 5

A band of rain across the south that should turn wintry later in the day (Probably evening) as cold air pushes further south.

[Uncertainty]

GEM, at it again??

 

The only thing we should be binning is the ECM

Edited December 20, 2021 by Uncertainy
Just realised that rhymes ?

[matty40s]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

I am looking at the k.a.s.i snow model

It's a bit more reliable than the khazi model.

[Cold Winter Night]

1 minute ago, seabreeze86 said:

GEM also bring the colder air in quicker 

And farther South.

 

[Kasim Awan]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Big, massive, huge ECM coming up…Probably the most important of our lifetime…at least until the 00z …

I guarantee it will be good

[Ice Day]

And just for good measure, the Control is getting close to something special here. 

 

[sheikhy]

The control is crazy!!the ecm has to backdown here!!!it has to!!!

[Bartlett High]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I guarantee it will be good

A bold statement indeed. 

[seabreeze86]

3 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

And farther South.

 

I honestly think the front won’t even make the UK maybe perhaps the far south west . I’m looking for convection setting up for a couple of days