Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

A heck of a lot of milder air to displace on the 12z ECM at 120hrs, frontal boundary likely to be considerably further north than it was on some of the other runs.

Ec brings the heights up from europe at day 4 more than the other ops - hence the 0c isotherm is pushed further north 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

ECM going under like GFS/UKMO. Probably too late for a white Christmas south of Scotland, but might be a White Boxing Day in places further south of the border.

On what is being shown now, yes.

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

A heck of a lot of milder air to displace on the 12z ECM at 120hrs, frontal boundary likely to be considerably further north than it was on some of the other runs.

Spot on!...no cold air in the mix until you head towards Scotland/northern England.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Agree.. but she’s a big beast of a ship to turn is the ECM and she has taken a large turn towards gfs since the overnights..

The ECM really is considerably further north with the colder air than just about all other models at the same timeframe. Hard to believe its going to be right!

[Tim Bland]

It’s wet rather than white out to Boxing Day. Let’s see if we can squeeze some snow after 26th.. 

[mother nature rocks]

So maybe the models had a joint Xmas party on Friday and really struggled with their terrible hangovers all weekend

Now their heads are not so fuzzy a better picture is now being painted!!

What a turnaround

MNR

[TSNWK]

Sometimes the 6 hour chunks on gfs are so more calming.. the 24 hour jumps on ecm and ukm  are brutally sharp..like wham bam cop that and deal with it.. no easing in as such..

[Ali1977]

Another upgrade tonight do we think ?

[That ECM]

T120 all 3.  Still not resolved but ecm has tail between legs.

Edited December 20, 2021 by That ECM

[bluearmy]

Here’s that low at day 6 

quite different to the 00z run

if this really is going to be a feature then it’s another wildcard to be thrown into the mix for early next week 

the run post day 6 can certainly be left alone on the basis of this feature and how it will affect the rest of it 

Edited December 20, 2021 by bluearmy

[tight isobar]

The upper layers goin to jail! The Siberian sector interference could be the final blow!!.. she’s in pieces...@litraley!

[Kasim Awan]

Ec is a massive improvement at 120h. Still not what we want it to be but the improvement is the important part.

[kold weather]

ECM has only hill snow for the north on Boxing day. Another low co0ming up from the SW which may provide some possibilities to wrap in some colder air but not a great run overall out to 144hrs if snow is what your looking for

Looks like at least for the south its going to be a wet one on the ECM.

[TSNWK]

What’s that little low in the south west approaches gonna do? Could be trigger as it flushes through the channel bringing in the cold air…

looks too nippy to just sit there..

[Notty]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Ec is a massive improvement at 120h. Still not what we want it to be but the improvement is the important part.

Baby steps - all good IMO

I’m still hoping the southward corrections don’t go too far by the weekend though.

[sheikhy]

Wat an upgrade on ecm!!!

[Gregulator]

Just now, kold weather said:

ECM has only hill snow for the north on Boxing day. Another low co0ming up from the SW which may provide some possibilities to wrap in some colder air but not a great run overall out to 144hrs if snow is what your looking for

Looks like at least for the south its going to be a wet one on the ECM.

Needs to drop South by a good few hundred miles then we are all in the mix

 

[Daniel*]

120hr > 144hr looks improbable to me…

[tight isobar]

Not to be binned.. as in face value!- but you have to say the forwarding progressive formats of the frontal system.. are way to energetic for sync.. I think we’ll see this in the supporting ENS.. so in that note I’ve personally seen enough of the ec 12 . And await it’s structured supportive outs... all in all great product progress today

Edited December 20, 2021 by tight isobar

[The PIT]

I'm probably not allowed to post this but all this swapping and changing reminds me of this. So we know where the data is now coming from.

 

[Dave Kightley]

 It isn’t very good for upper air temps... most rain everywhere... poor run compared to others

Edited December 20, 2021 by Dave Kightley

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

What’s that little low in the south west approaches gonna do? Could be trigger as it flushes through the channel bringing in the cold air…

looks too nippy to just sit there..

Gfs has it.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Wat an upgrade on ecm!!!

the most north of big 3! we want the GFS 06Z setup!

EC is no white Xmas for us

[Howie]

Is it me or does the ECM look like it's lost the plot a bit there? Does that really look right between 120-144hrs?

[blizzard81]

The ecm ops are having a nightmare. Woeful performance.