Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, IceDaysAndBalticNights said:

It's not just the apps though, I suggest watching the met office week ahead forecast on youtube that got uploaded today.

I suggest watching the met- recon at Wednesday! - then see what father Xmas has up he’s outfit

Edited December 20, 2021 by tight isobar

[Ali1977]

That little ridge is the start of the shortwave that breaks down the block a few days later, this is at T72!! I think that’s the little bugger we want to shrink, letting the block keep its shape and helping the slider head south!! 

[Froze were the Days]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’ve been back to end November and I can’t find any runs showing such high levels of scandi blocking 

Not sure if it was the ec46 but I have defo seen a recent forecast chart of pressure anomalies that forecast a black hole towards the Scandinavia region which to a degree stretched towards the UK predicting a dry more or less HP dominated Xmas spell - 100% surely others must have seen this?, only a couple of weeks back!

Edited December 20, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[Updated_Weather]

28 minutes ago, Don said:

Not sure how the ICON rates as a model?

Not very well I believe!

[sheikhy]

Early days but low is even deeper at 54 hours in the atlantic!!

[Midlands Ice Age]

Thought I'd present the Climate Reanalyser (GFS) view of the Northern Hemisphere for today and 10 days time.

 

                 

Still  very similar.  H P dominated, with still a depression sliding towards us in the Atlantic.

That looks like a lot of pent up energy to me!!.  Both at the pole and to the people on the forum 

 MIA 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Early days but low is even deeper at 54 hours in the atlantic!!

Is this a negative ? The NE of the HP is slightly further NE at T60, shortwave slightly delayed, may help later on 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Ali1977

[Bradley in Kent]

Evening all, last night I threw my towel in and won't be picking it up. 

Two positives though (or 1.5); this chase has certainly brought some lessons and good experience to learn from. And another positive (depending on your personal circumstances) it's Christmas this week

[Dancerwithwings]

3 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

Looks like the hopes of many for a white Christmas have been dashed again after years of model watching starting to wonder if they are a lot less reliable than they used to be

I can’t really remember in the years on here in seeing any promise regarding the models showing a wintry outlook on the big day, normally it’s just mild and wet and we are hoping and looking ahead into January for us coldies feeling somewhat  

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Early days but low is even deeper at 54 hours in the atlantic!!

Everything is further north too. Uh oh! Mind you, the 12z did keep the fronts very far south.

[tight isobar]

Well if it’s southern trending ya crave - @1030  plot at Greenland western quadrant! And a developing flux source of LP inbound.. then here comes your run .. the pressure plots are now evolving to a shunt in ALL systems—- south

[Ali1977]

T72 isn’t looking great with the Atlantic low further north

[fergieweather]

Just now, Updated_Weather said:

Not very well I believe!

Actually it's an entirely competent mesoscale/European domain model (& indeed proved exceptionally useful on numerous occasions as a forecasting tool during the 2021 Formula One season, for various agencies). Alongside ARPEGE, EURO4 (RIP!) & others, always perused by e.g. UKMO duty Chief Forecaster in overall assessments. Lately we are seeing a repeated saga of various operational models expressing themselves run-to-run across a varied span of respective ensemble envelopes and indeed at longer lead times, not helped by ongoing poor performance of sub-seasonal models particularly beyond ~wk2. And winter (strictly) hasn't even started until tomorrow...

[sheikhy]

Not looking good at 72 hours!!!

[saintkip]

Love it one person says further north another days going south. 

[Ali1977]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Not looking good at 72 hours!!!

It’s very similar to our NE though, and that may be the more important factor in pushing everything south!! 

[snowice]

Just now, saintkip said:

Love it one person says further north another days going south. 

Going mad

[alex12]

Just now, saintkip said:

Love it one person says further north another days going south. 

That's what i thought! Confused.com!

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

It’s very similar to our NE though, and that may be the more important factor in pushing everything south!! 

Just like @tight isobarsaid.

[saintkip]

Place your bets on the next frame, north south or none of the above

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

I can’t really remember in the years on here in seeing any promise regarding the models showing a wintry outlook on the big day, normally it’s just mild and wet and we are hoping and looking ahead into January for us coldies feeling somewhat  

Very true and those cold winters during the mid-80's had mild Decembers with the cold not arriving until after New Year! 

[Tom Jarvis]

4 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Actually it's an entirely competent mesoscale/European domain model (& indeed proved exceptionally useful on numerous occasions as a forecasting tool during the 2021 Formula One season, for various agencies). Alongside ARPEGE, EURO4 (RIP!) & others, always perused by e.g. UKMO duty Chief Forecaster in overall assessments. Lately we are seeing a repeated saga of various operational models expressing themselves run-to-run across a varied span of respective ensemble envelopes and indeed at longer lead times, not helped by ongoing poor performance of sub-seasonal models particularly beyond ~wk2. And winter (strictly) hasn't even started until tomorrow...

sounds like we have a very big dose of Shannon entropy at the moment!!  

[Ali1977]

Pretty consistant here at 96

[Kasim Awan]

29 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Not for me kasim- it’s warm up to the raw advanced, . And then fight for what you were against initially!. I don’t even view it. In point to point basis. If ya wanna fill ya bin up... Chuck all of it’s suites in it- and wait for the dustman

Although the colder option is far more likely, 70%, this is far from a done deal

[TSNWK]

Too 96. Flicking between frames from 12z and this one the low to our west lots a smidge quicker and as consequence colder air into Scotland is slight slower.