SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Jimmyh]

That rain didn't even last 5 minutes !!!!

[Harry's House]

34 minutes ago, TN9 said:

Really.. honest ..proper dry ,if it does happen to belt it down it runs straight off not down

Yes - really.. honest ..proper dry. Rainfall was moderate for only short periods of time and it did not 'belt' down.

[Tn9]

11 minutes ago, Harry's House said:

Yes - really.. honest ..proper dry. Rainfall was moderate for only short periods of time and it did not 'belt' down.

I ment i believed you 100% percent ,like really honestly believe you ,not just there's no muddy bits ,no puddles,I'm talking a metre and a half down ,dry as a bone 

Couple of photos from Sevenoaks looking south ...spits and spots  here thats all ...

Edited June 25, 2022 by TN9

[Eagle Eye]

Some managed to not be really grainy and the time-lapses turned out pretty well I would say.

 

 

Edited June 25, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Tn9]

8 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Some managed to not be really grainy and the time-lapses turned out pretty well I would say.

 

 

 

Your just lucky EE ..I bet your up to your ears in it ,we 20 odd miles NW of you had nothing ,at all

Edited June 25, 2022 by TN9

[Eagle Eye]

Tomorrow,model and sounding guidance suggests some forcing creating weak CAPE across the region around 200 j/kg widely but for areas just North of Peterborough widely 400-800 j/kg is possible, creating some pretty heavy showers with hail cores possible, an increase in low-level shear with a decrease in deep-layer shear may mean a cluster forms with winds as that seems to happen with high low-level shear and deep-level shear.

Questions remain over the base of these,I think most will be surface based in highest heating areas with updrafts that may have low-level rotation and therefore exhibit Supercellular characteristics but not be Supercellular in themselves, some may be elevated locally, I think, with the possibility for becoming longer lived.

Lightning frequency will depend on the shearing which would need to be quite strong deep-layer shear, the ICON being the best example for thos. So in other words, lightning will be most frequent if clusters don't form as that may hamper Storm growth upwards.

Just a basic post looking at it for now, might do more tomorrow.

ECM sounding.

Just to add a bit on

There is also some potential in the morning hours for the far SE that comes from a slice of forcing and a small amount of instability due to moisture advecting from the near continent meeting with a slab of cooler air aloft here due to a trough engaging with a high sliding across the east coast, that may have enough lifting to just force itself into some Surface Based convection. Most of the risk , especially further North of the far SE lies in daytime heating providing the risk for Storms however for the far SE, it will, I think, rely on the fact that there are likely going to be some decent dewpoints that may just be able to bring 200-300 j/kg of energy in places.

ECM sounding 

Edited June 26, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Iceman2606]

Nice sky this morning over Northamptonshire.

[Eagle Eye]

Last night here

About 20 minutes later

[TROY]

So here we are in the middle of summer in a autumn westerly set up. Yes warm in the sun. But where is the summer Azores high. Our summers have changed so much. Take care and good health to you all.

 

[Dami]

It's raining.

[lassie23]

15 minutes ago, Dami said:

It's raining.

I'm in need of some water.

[Methuselah]

It was sunny, now starting to cloud over from the west; 20C at 9 am. Will the Triangle see any thunderstorm this arvo?

Edited June 27, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Dami]

16 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I'm in need of some water.

We are growing sunflowers for a guide badge and out of two weeks we've only had to water them a handful of times. I think we are stealing it 

[lassie23]

53 minutes ago, Dami said:

We are growing sunflowers for a guide badge and out of two weeks we've only had to water them a handful of times. I think we are stealing it 

my lawn is cracking and the kittens can stick an entire paw in

[Blazerblue]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

It was sunny, now starting to cloud over from the west; 20C at 9 am. Will the Triangle see any thunderstorm this arvo?

More chance of piggies with wings flying by

[Dami]

16 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

my lawn is cracking and the kittens can stick an entire paw in

 

poor wee things

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well the first batch of rain went through here.. less than 1mm recorded didn't even wet the ground 

Hoping to catch one of those heavier bursts out west but short and sharp rain is not what we need.

We really need a day or 2 of persistent rain to have any effect

[Norfolk Sheep]

A sunny start but clouding over and feeling rather cool in the breeze.

Grass is now mostly brown, marathon watering sessions every evening. 

[Eagle Eye]

Now it's important to look away from the models for the risk today and look at the now because that gives us the best idea for the future.

Forcing is an important part of modelling here because it deals with the ides of an increase in pressure forcing an increase in buoyancy temporarily within that area of the atmosphere and can. The front that went through is the reason for this forcing as it initiates lifting within the atmosphere. This lifting mechanism has caused some ability for energy behind it to force up some heavier showers later on, I would think that as the isobar continue to move North, the temperature will increase in the areas it moves North to and surface heating will be another aid for lifting behind the front leaving us. Based on the organisation of the front earlier I would say that low-level shear is relatively high perhaps aiding some decent outflow from it and that provides the final mechanism for shower lifting. So in other words, the best chance for an area of Storm formation based off highest temperature around 3 PM, outflow boundaries assumed to still be available and positive buoyancy forced by the earlier rain, I would say that an area between N Kent and Lincolnshire will be in with the best chance, so not much change since yesterday.

However if I had to pin down a place more specific than that then I would have to look at the Isobares once again. Bases off the fact that the forcing from the French rain that just missed Kent, basically brushing parts of the coast cuased a lifting mechanism strong enough to force some pretty heavy showers, I would have to say that 2 outflow boundaries being close together would be the perfect situation for that lifting to take place, with heat being a lesser factor within this. Based off that, I would say that across the coast of Essex and Suffolk the boundaries for air rising is quite strong and as It moves further NE it may come further inland and parts of Norfolk and areas in and around Peterborough will likely be the best areas.

I've had to create this in a rush in a room with very little data and so it'll likely be very wrong but I've quickly had a look at it here with the last 2 paragraphs and have created a Storm risk for the region.

 

 

[Tn9]

7 hours ago, TROY said:

So here we are in the middle of summer in a autumn westerly set up. Yes warm in the sun. But where is the summer Azores high. Our summers have changed so much. Take care and good health to you all.

 

Even winter is hit or miss though isn't it, all spring and autumn for us it seems ,think i just heard a rumble ..but not over us here further east  over Maidstone way.but might not have been 

 

 

 

Edited June 27, 2022 by TN9

[Lauren]

Little unexpected mini storm for 5 minutes here.

[Blazerblue]

The pigs have landed, kaboooooom! ️️

edit. One loud bang, that was it?!

Edited June 27, 2022 by Blazerblue
Added text

[Norfolk Sheep]

1 hour ago, Blazerblue said:

The pigs have landed, kaboooooom! ️️

edit. One loud bang, that was it?!

Noticed it was a bit dark over your way, it passed to our south. Not a sausage!

We did have about 5 mins of sprinkles from a bit of cloud though. 

Exciting times. 

[Hotspur62]

Another pleasant day here in Locksbottom with the afternoon being sunnier than the morning and temperatures of about 22.What is more worrying is the lack of rainfall this year in this part of NW Kent.The ground is so dry now and the next 14 days look predominantly dry with little prospect of any meaningful rainfall so it will be watering the plants every evening I feel for the foreseeable (the lawn will just go brown but when hopefully rain arrives it doesn’t take long for it to go green).So so different to last year when we had regular rainfall throughout June July and august.At least it isn’t a repeat of 2018 with the crazy heat that matched 1976!!In 2018 we went 53 days without traceable rainfall which I don’t ever remember happening in my lifetime and hope it doesn’t happen again but with CC I wouldn’t bet against that!!

[Tn9]

15 hours ago, Hotspur62 said:

Another pleasant day here in Locksbottom with the afternoon being sunnier than the morning and temperatures of about 22.What is more worrying is the lack of rainfall this year in this part of NW Kent.The ground is so dry now and the next 14 days look predominantly dry with little prospect of any meaningful rainfall so it will be watering the plants every evening I feel for the foreseeable (the lawn will just go brown but when hopefully rain arrives it doesn’t take long for it to go green).So so different to last year when we had regular rainfall throughout June July and august.At least it isn’t a repeat of 2018 with the crazy heat that matched 1976!!In 2018 we went 53 days without traceable rainfall which I don’t ever remember happening in my lifetime and hope it doesn’t happen again but with CC I wouldn’t bet against that!!

Bit wishy washy here in Sidcup,just as it starts to rain it peters out ..and like you say  it's not just the topsoil thats  hard as iron its deep dry ,so torrential rain is pretty useless as it in drains into rivers or gullys before you can say jack Robinson..

Edited June 29, 2022 by TN9