SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[alexisj9]

On 19/06/2022 at 13:41, Eagle Eye said:

I think that's Facebook, my mum uses it to know when Storms are coming instead of asking me

Might be Kent weather, I follow them a proper forecaster, not one of those over excitable fakes. You know the ones that seem to think the express knows what's what.

Sorry my tablet is messing up, 

Edited June 29, 2022 by alexisj9

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Might be Kent weather, I follow them a proper forecaster, not one of those over excitable fakes. You know the ones that seem to think the express knows what's what.

Sorry my tablet is messing up, 

Talking of 'excitable fakes': 

Piers Corbyn's car seized after driving without insurance

WWW.TELEGRAPH.CO.UK

---

The brother of the ex-Labour leader was on his way to Cambridge in a car adorned with a banner saying 'No to ULEZ'

 

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Talking of 'excitable fakes': 

Piers Corbyn's car seized after driving without insurance

WWW.TELEGRAPH.CO.UK

---

The brother of the ex-Labour leader was on his way to Cambridge in a car adorned with a banner saying 'No to ULEZ'

 

 Was on about the millions of weather groups that are just there for click bait.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

 Was on about the millions of weather groups that are just there for click bait.

So was I!

[Tom Montalbano]

Evening all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. 

What a glorious spell of Weather we've had recently.

Being one of DAMI's Heat Hater's Club, it could hardly have been better. Max. Temps in the low 20's C, Sunny Spells interspersed with a bit of Cloud, and a cooling breeze. We really have been BLESSED [by the] WEATHER. Apologies for taking your Avatar name in vain, Malcolm.

As I stated the other Day, my Wife has introduced a healthy regime of diet and exercise, for the both of us.

Was disappointed last Tuesday to have to cancel our planned walk, from Chinbrook Meadows, a large Open Space/Park back to our home. 

Neither myself or my Wife are able to drive, especially as we both have ongoing health problems.

We had planned to take a Minicab to the Park but our local Cab firm, decided to place an extra £5 Tariff, on the Fare.

The distance is around 1 & a half Miles, and thought that was profiteering to the extreme, and didn't want to pay that exorbitant amount.

Surely these Cab firms made enough money, out of the increased demand for Cabs during the recent Rail Strikes? 

Therefore, as the Weather continued to be equally favourable, we decided to go Yesterday

Chinbrook Meadows is a Park both myself and my Wife, although we were unknown to each other at that time, visited fairly frequently when we were Youngsters, back in the Day.

      CHINBROOK MEADOWS

The Park traverses the London Boroughs of Bromley and Lewisham.

The great majority of the Park, is located N.E. of a Railway Embankment, that carries Trains from London to the Kent/Sussex Coast, via Grove Park, Orpington, Sevenoaks and Tonbridge. The smaller portion of the Park, is located to the S.W., of this Railway Embankment. The two parts of the Park, are connected by a Tunnel. The River Quaggy crosses both sections of the Park, and is a Tributary of the River Ravensbourne, which has its source close to Bromley's, Princess Royal University Hospital, towards the South of the Borough of Bromley. 

Below, are a few images that my Wife took in Chinbrook Meadows Yesterday. Apologies, Colette is no David Bailey but she tried, bless her.

 

                 1].  -   2.] - 

                    3.]  

1.] - Looking S,E., down across Chinbrook Meadows. 2] - A plaque commemorating a Peace Garden opened by Bishop Desmond Tutu, in July 2009. Bishop Tutu lived in the area, in the early 1970's. 3.] - The River Quaggy looking more like a Stream, and badly in need of some Rain. 

The following images, are remainders to Yours Truly of significant Weather events, that took place in the 1960's.

4] - This image is looking N.E., in the smaller section of Chinbrook Meadows. There used to be a 5 a Side Football Pitch here. where I played for my local Martin's Newsagents, who I did a Paper Round for, in the mid/late 1960's. It was during one such Match, that I looked to the Skies to see Clouds, that looked like Great Bears. Perhaps I had witnessed Altocumulus Castellanus, growing into Cumulonimbi. All I know is that by Midnight, all hell broke loose, and my Brontophobia began in earnest. I'd always thought my Brontophobia had been caused by my very strict, half German Father. who was looking after me that Night, whilst my Italian Mother was in a local Maternity Unit, about to give birth, to my Younger Sister. But in more recent Years, I realised that fear of Lightning/Thunder had been implanted in me by my very superstitious Mother, who on seeing Lightning, would make the Sign of the Cross, and call on Santa Barbara, who is the Patron Saint of Lightning and Storms in general, in Italy. Therefore as a young Lad, a grew up with an intense fear of Lightning/Thunder, due to Mum's reaction and I could never appreciate the awesome power of a majestic Cumulonimbus Cloud. But fortunately in the last few Years, my Brontophobia has improved. 

Both Mum and Dad are pictured in my Avatar Photo, at their Wedding in my Mother's home Town of Caserta, near Naples in April 1947. 

5.] -  You must be wondering, why on earth has Tom posted up an image of a Lamppost? All will be revealed!!

 As a result of the Weather associated with the Synoptics, depicted on the left, our Region was plagued by a Weekend of prolonged and heavy Thundery Rain.

I visited Chinbrook Meadows on the following Monday, after the Rivers Ravensbourne and Quaggy had broken their Banks and caused extensive flooding in S.E. London and other locations, in our Region. The areas worst hit were Crawley, East Grinstead, Horley, Lewisham, Petersfield, Redhill, Tilbury, Tunbridge Wells and Tonbridge .

The Flood-Water in Chinbrook Meadows was as deep as that Lamppost, pictured in image 5, after the River Quaggy had broken its banks. I  have never witnessed flooding like that, and am unlikely to again.

6.] -  Flooding in Marvels Lane, close to Chinbrook Meadows in September 1968.  

More information regarding the River Quaggy and Chinbrook Meadows, in the links below.

River Quaggy - Wikipedia

Chinbrook Meadows - Wikipedia

After our trip down Memory Lane, myself and my Wife walked a further Mile and a half back home to Lee, thoroughly tired and looking forward to Lunch. But Nurse Colette's new Health regime, is paying dividends thankfully. We have both lost 10 Lbs, in 4 Weeks. We're hoping to get a lot more exercise Walks in, combined with a much more healthy diet.

Just before I retired to bed Yesterday Evening my Mobile rang and I could see that local S.E. Meteorologist Ian Currie, was the caller.

Mr. Currie comes across, as an absent minded Professor but is always giving of his time and a chat with Ian is likely to be full of Weather Stats, and personal anecdotes of his own Weather experiences, and Yesterday Evening was no exception.

Before I put the Phone down, I managed to contribute a few words to the conversation. Once Mr. Currie starts talking about the Weather, you just have to shut up and listen, I did manage to ask him a couple of things. Firstly how he and his Wife, were. 

Ian is now into his 70's, and although both he and his Wife had Covid-19 last October, fortunately in both their cases , it was a mild illness.

Mr. Currie asked me to again thank those handful of Members in our Region that took him up on his very generous Book offer. I won't name those Members concerned but you know, who you are. 

I couldn't let him go, without asking him for hos thoughts on the Weather for July, in our Region.

Ian expects the mainly dry Weather to continue, with temperatures gradually rising as we go through July, and eventually likely to reach the Hot Category. Look away now, Dami and all my fellow Heat Haters!!  

Regards,

Tom. 

 

 

[lottiekent]

Morning

Cloudy and breezy this morning after yesterday evening’s welcome rainfall.

Has anyone else noticed how it seems to be breezy/windy all the time at the moment? It’s very rare we get a calm day, even full sun days are often too breezy to put out the large umbrella in the garden.

[Methuselah]

A cloudy, muggy sort of day so far, at 16C. As for last night's rain: Where did it go? Anyway, with a potential heatwave looming, some decent rainfall is fast becoming a must and not just a mere preference!

[Harry's House]

2 hours ago, lottiekent said:

Morning

Cloudy and breezy this morning after yesterday evening’s welcome rainfall.

Has anyone else noticed how it seems to be breezy/windy all the time at the moment? It’s very rare we get a calm day, even full sun days are often too breezy to put out the large umbrella in the garden.

The windiness here seems so unseasonable to me.

[Eagle Eye]

Despite the low potential for us today, the longwave trough is significantly further west than forecast. As an upper-level trough, the best mix will be with surface heating causing a difference in temperature across all levels, with very little potential for much convective inhibition other than a non-clearing of cloud or weak surface heating. An area of vorticity over the Bay of Biscuits (rename it to that?) is moving North much quicker than the area of forcing over NW France and the SE (note that I haven't highlighted the secondary area of forcing over the west of the UK because it won't affect us). Realistically, that should create the lift for showers in that area, however, the amount of lightning possible depends on the shearing, based on Brickfielder's comment in the Storms thread about the possibility of an MCS, I would say that it is decent enough.

Based off GFS sounding data for the SW where this combination was initially expected, Storm motions will be similar to a couple days ago where Storms hit N Kent and S Essex and with the highest heating almost always near London, then the release of energy could be quite similar. If temperatures get slightly higher than forecast, then I would suggest that near 1,000 J/KG is possible locally causing some decent Storms for a time. Strong Storm development is likely to be to the front right of the Storm and so outflow is possible rather than inflow and so any Supercell claims today are unlikely.

Interested to see how today develops based off the cloud cover that may inhibit Storm formation later on.

[Tom Montalbano]

4 hours ago, lottiekent said:

Morning

Cloudy and breezy this morning after yesterday evening’s welcome rainfall.

Has anyone else noticed how it seems to be breezy/windy all the time at the moment? It’s very rare we get a calm day, even full sun days are often too breezy to put out the large umbrella in the garden.

Morning all,

Yes Lottie, myself and my Wife have noticed how breezy it's been, during our walks.

Even though it hasn't been that warm, with UV levels pretty high, I've still managed to catch the Sun. 

I've made sure that I've been wearing my straw Panama Hat, to protect my balding pate, and you don't want your pate getting burnt, it doesn't taste very nice, and won't spread properly on bread or crackers!!

Just a couple of postscripts to my War and Peace post, of Yesterday Evening.

My comment about Ian Currie being like an absent minded Professor was reflected in his admission that he didn't intend to phone, myself.

He had inadvertently written my Mobile number down against the name of an Electrician, that he was trying to contact.

Ian has my contact details, as I'm on his mailing list, for his Quarterly Magazine, Weather Eye. He'd got my details mixed up, with this Electrician.

I told Mr. Currie, there was no way I could help him with an electrical problem, as my Wife will confirm, I'm totally hopeless with any D-I-Y problems.

Regarding the mid-September 1968 flooding, below are some images, of the worst affected areas:

  - Guildford Town Centre. 

 An aerial view of Guildford Town Centre.

 Guildford High Street. 

 Godalming.

 Leatherhead Football Ground. 

Below, a link to more information about the mid-September 1968 floods, 

Philip Eden: September 1968 Floods - London cut off | weatheronline.co.uk

Regards,

Tom. 

Edited June 30, 2022 by TomSE12

[Eagle Eye]

2 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Despite the low potential for us today, the longwave trough is significantly further west than forecast. As an upper-level trough, the best mix will be with surface heating causing a difference in temperature across all levels, with very little potential for much convective inhibition other than a non-clearing of cloud or weak surface heating. An area of vorticity over the Bay of Biscuits (rename it to that?) is moving North much quicker than the area of forcing over NW France and the SE (note that I haven't highlighted the secondary area of forcing over the west of the UK because it won't affect us). Realistically, that should create the lift for showers in that area, however, the amount of lightning possible depends on the shearing, based on Brickfielder's comment in the Storms thread about the possibility of an MCS, I would say that it is decent enough.

Based off GFS sounding data for the SW where this combination was initially expected, Storm motions will be similar to a couple days ago where Storms hit N Kent and S Essex and with the highest heating almost always near London, then the release of energy could be quite similar. If temperatures get slightly higher than forecast, then I would suggest that near 1,000 J/KG is possible locally causing some decent Storms for a time. Strong Storm development is likely to be to the front right of the Storm and so outflow is possible rather than inflow and so any Supercell claims today are unlikely.

Interested to see how today develops based off the cloud cover that may inhibit Storm formation later on.

Some forcing over the channel and just west of London now as well as the SW which was where the other area of forcing was so, going to plan so far, looking to be some development taking place over the channel nicely with that rich moisture slowly marching North and will likely create Storms over the East as it does. Some upper-level moisture still lingering here and as long as it stays there, then developments are possible.

 

[Methuselah]

Gee whizzarooni. It's actually raining!

[Freeze]

7 hours ago, lottiekent said:

Morning

Cloudy and breezy this morning after yesterday evening’s welcome rainfall.

Has anyone else noticed how it seems to be breezy/windy all the time at the moment? It’s very rare we get a calm day, even full sun days are often too breezy to put out the large umbrella in the garden.

Same here, classic summer sea breeze. Always windy during the day but as soon as it hits around 7pm ish it goes completely calm, its also the reason it hasn't been all that warm here as the air is constantly blowing off the channel.

[Norfolk Sheep]

30 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Gee whizzarooni. It's actually raining!

Just hosed it down here (I'm in the caravan up at Blofield). OH says nothing at home (Dereham). 

[Mesoscale]

Decent storm just rolled over Watford (im in North Watford) some of the strikes got a little bit too close, Calmed down quite a bit as it went over the M25/M1 junction. 

[Tn9]

29 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

Decent storm just rolled over Watford (im in North Watford) some of the strikes got a little bit too close, Calmed down quite a bit as it went over the M25/M1 junction. 

We had ..err  a bit light drizzle, se London,nothing more ,tbh its gorgeous evening 

[Tn9]

22 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

Evening all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. 

What a glorious spell of Weather we've had recently.

Being one of DAMI's Heat Hater's Club, it could hardly have been better. Max. Temps in the low 20's C, Sunny Spells interspersed with a bit of Cloud, and a cooling breeze. We really have been BLESSED [by the] WEATHER. Apologies for taking your Avatar name in vain, Malcolm.

As I stated the other Day, my Wife has introduced a healthy regime of diet and exercise, for the both of us.

Was disappointed last Tuesday to have to cancel our planned walk, from Chinbrook Meadows, a large Open Space/Park back to our home. 

Neither myself or my Wife are able to drive, especially as we both have ongoing health problems.

We had planned to take a Minicab to the Park but our local Cab firm, decided to place an extra £5 Tariff, on the Fare.

The distance is around 1 & a half Miles, and thought that was profiteering to the extreme, and didn't want to pay that exorbitant amount.

Surely these Cab firms made enough money, out of the increased demand for Cabs during the recent Rail Strikes? 

Therefore, as the Weather continued to be equally favourable, we decided to go Yesterday

Chinbrook Meadows is a Park both myself and my Wife, although we were unknown to each other at that time, visited fairly frequently when we were Youngsters, back in the Day.

      CHINBROOK MEADOWS

The Park traverses the London Boroughs of Bromley and Lewisham.

The great majority of the Park, is located N.E. of a Railway Embankment, that carries Trains from London to the Kent/Sussex Coast, via Grove Park, Orpington, Sevenoaks and Tonbridge. The smaller portion of the Park, is located to the S.W., of this Railway Embankment. The two parts of the Park, are connected by a Tunnel. The River Quaggy crosses both sections of the Park, and is a Tributary of the River Ravensbourne, which has its source close to Bromley's, Princess Royal University Hospital, towards the South of the Borough of Bromley. 

Below, are a few images that my Wife took in Chinbrook Meadows Yesterday. Apologies, Colette is no David Bailey but she tried, bless her.

 

                 1].  -   2.] - 

                    3.]  

1.] - Looking S,E., down across Chinbrook Meadows. 2] - A plaque commemorating a Peace Garden opened by Bishop Desmond Tutu, in July 2009. Bishop Tutu lived in the area, in the early 1970's. 3.] - The River Quaggy looking more like a Stream, and badly in need of some Rain. 

The following images, are remainders to Yours Truly of significant Weather events, that took place in the 1960's.

4] - This image is looking N.E., in the smaller section of Chinbrook Meadows. There used to be a 5 a Side Football Pitch here. where I played for my local Martin's Newsagents, who I did a Paper Round for, in the mid/late 1960's. It was during one such Match, that I looked to the Skies to see Clouds, that looked like Great Bears. Perhaps I had witnessed Altocumulus Castellanus, growing into Cumulonimbi. All I know is that by Midnight, all hell broke loose, and my Brontophobia began in earnest. I'd always thought my Brontophobia had been caused by my very strict, half German Father. who was looking after me that Night, whilst my Italian Mother was in a local Maternity Unit, about to give birth, to my Younger Sister. But in more recent Years, I realised that fear of Lightning/Thunder had been implanted in me by my very superstitious Mother, who on seeing Lightning, would make the Sign of the Cross, and call on Santa Barbara, who is the Patron Saint of Lightning and Storms in general, in Italy. Therefore as a young Lad, a grew up with an intense fear of Lightning/Thunder, due to Mum's reaction and I could never appreciate the awesome power of a majestic Cumulonimbus Cloud. But fortunately in the last few Years, my Brontophobia has improved. 

Both Mum and Dad are pictured in my Avatar Photo, at their Wedding in my Mother's home Town of Caserta, near Naples in April 1947. 

5.] -  You must be wondering, why on earth has Tom posted up an image of a Lamppost? All will be revealed!!

 As a result of the Weather associated with the Synoptics, depicted on the left, our Region was plagued by a Weekend of prolonged and heavy Thundery Rain.

I visited Chinbrook Meadows on the following Monday, after the Rivers Ravensbourne and Quaggy had broken their Banks and caused extensive flooding in S.E. London and other locations, in our Region. The areas worst hit were Crawley, East Grinstead, Horley, Lewisham, Petersfield, Redhill, Tilbury, Tunbridge Wells and Tonbridge .

The Flood-Water in Chinbrook Meadows was as deep as that Lamppost, pictured in image 5, after the River Quaggy had broken its banks. I  have never witnessed flooding like that, and am unlikely to again.

6.] -  Flooding in Marvels Lane, close to Chinbrook Meadows in September 1968.  

More information regarding the River Quaggy and Chinbrook Meadows, in the links below.

River Quaggy - Wikipedia

Chinbrook Meadows - Wikipedia

After our trip down Memory Lane, myself and my Wife walked a further Mile and a half back home to Lee, thoroughly tired and looking forward to Lunch. But Nurse Colette's new Health regime, is paying dividends thankfully. We have both lost 10 Lbs, in 4 Weeks. We're hoping to get a lot more exercise Walks in, combined with a much more healthy diet.

Just before I retired to bed Yesterday Evening my Mobile rang and I could see that local S.E. Meteorologist Ian Currie, was the caller.

Mr. Currie comes across, as an absent minded Professor but is always giving of his time and a chat with Ian is likely to be full of Weather Stats, and personal anecdotes of his own Weather experiences, and Yesterday Evening was no exception.

Before I put the Phone down, I managed to contribute a few words to the conversation. Once Mr. Currie starts talking about the Weather, you just have to shut up and listen, I did manage to ask him a couple of things. Firstly how he and his Wife, were. 

Ian is now into his 70's, and although both he and his Wife had Covid-19 last October, fortunately in both their cases , it was a mild illness.

Mr. Currie asked me to again thank those handful of Members in our Region that took him up on his very generous Book offer. I won't name those Members concerned but you know, who you are. 

I couldn't let him go, without asking him for hos thoughts on the Weather for July, in our Region.

Ian expects the mainly dry Weather to continue, with temperatures gradually rising as we go through July, and eventually likely to reach the Hot Category. Look away now, Dami and all my fellow Heat Haters!!  

Regards,

Tom. 

 

 

We badly need rain ...just up road from your selfs clay and.ballast exists  ..like it was in ancient times a big estuary . So your clay ..like  mud at  low tide ,then flinty stony gravel ,in streams  like they were , but since become  subterrestial ...the ballast stream beds are moist at best at  moment ...not normal

[Tn9]

We kopped right out tonight (in Kent)  ,all action west of M23,and in  winter...north of M4,are we governed by motorways .. ? I guess so 

[Tn9]

Not really a south Eastern  topic but a weird one none the least 

'Peculiar' Caspian Sea cloud tracked by NASA Terra satellite | Space

WWW.SPACE.COM

---

The small stratocumulus cloud has a complex origin story.

 

[Sparky68]

Greeted by this at 4:40am let's hope its not an indication of July's weather 

 

[NYCSnow]

So bored of this cool breezy weather now, feels like it’s been like this for weeks. Getting really gusty again now here and really takes the edge off the already rather cool temperature and tomato plants are not enjoying it at all! 18 or 19 degrees is pleasant in calm, sunny and slightly humid weather but by mid summer feels almost chilly when there’s a fresh breeze and cloud. 

[Freeze]

Some strange high clouds this evening, not sure what they are called? 

[Mesoscale]

The sky is on fire,! Beautiful ornages and reds. 

[Tn9]

Looking at the whole gfs run there isn't for the foreseeable  any  decent rain here imby and I honestly think it will be a problem (only my opinion ) I know showers are hit and miss here but the ground is parched deep too ..which isn't a good sign ,but still steady as goes warmth  wise  

[Tn9]

2 hours ago, Freeze said:

Some strange high clouds this evening, not sure what they are called? 

If you enlarge your pic its (high cloud) looks like your looking down on an island complex from space (except for gable end of house lol )