SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[lottiekent]

Nothing here, a few dozen drops which partially wet the ground but not entirely so shows you what little there was!

Clear now and 20.6c after a high of 24.4c

[Mizzle]

Looking NE from our garden in Fleet, I am guessing the beautiful cloud is the top of the action in SW London.

[Norfolk Sheep]

20 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Is that the seventy-sixth rule of acquisition or the seventy-seventh? And, don't you dare declare Mornington Crescent!

It's 239 - Never be afraid to mislabel a product.

And yes, I'm declaring Mornington Crescent!

[Mesoscale]

Is the storm near heathrow real? or is it a false return? 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

It's 239 - Never be afraid to mislabel a product.

And yes, I'm declaring Mornington Crescent!

Okay, I give up. But, in the immortal word of Tim Brook-Taylor:  Mollusc!

[weirpig]

Dark towards my west

  I assume that's the cell Heathrow way   so close 

Edited August 16, 2022 by weirpig

[Eagle Eye]

15Z UKV lowers the potential tonight but stabilises the potential for tomorrow, tomorrow looking like it'll going to be a slightly easier day to predict than first thought.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Crivens, just had 5 mins of rain, even have a v. small puddle on patio!

[Nick F]

Weather's trolling me today. No storms while I was at work at Heathrow today. But get back home in NE Surrey and BOOM isolated storm goes up over work photo is looking NW from Caterham in Surrey

[bluebell]

29 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

Nothing here, a few dozen drops which partially wet the ground but not entirely so shows you what little there was!

Clear now and 20.6c after a high of 24.4c

Same here, annoying amount of drops to prevent you from sitting out and reading as the pages get a bit damp, but not enough to justify a break from watering the veg patch!

[Eagle Eye]

I know I said that we were best off looking at the Belgian Storms for Outflow pools to be created (not their actual name I just like to call them that now) rather than directly but...

Wishful thinking I think

 

[Methuselah]

17 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Crivens, just had 5 mins of rain, even have a v. small puddle on patio!

 

[bluebell]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

I know I said that we were best off looking at the Belgian Storms for Outflow pools to be created (not their actual name I just like to call them that now) rather than directly but...

Wishful thinking I think

 

Never say never Eagle Eye we live in hope for a flash, bang light show soon..! 

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, bluebell said:

Never say never Eagle Eye we live in hope for a flash, bang light show soon..! 

This time I won't tell my friend a Storm is coming and everything should be a-okay (did that this morning sorry everybody, jinxed all of your chances).

[Jason T]

4 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

I know I said that we were best off looking at the Belgian Storms for Outflow pools to be created (not their actual name I just like to call them that now) rather than directly but...

Wishful thinking I think

 

Not out of the question though EE possibilities..also all that lovely energy they can pick up crossing the channel, nice recharge re load .

[Tom Montalbano]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Ah, never fear, MetO's here: thunderstorms on Thursday!

 

Evening all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families well, and managing to cope with these energy sapping conditions.

Not meaning to contradict you Pete [Ed Stone] but I think the reference to T/Storms on Thursday, is a temporary early Morning one.  Below, is the METO Fax Chart for 12z on Thursday. The Thundery Low that's been around for a few Days has by now moved off the scene and moved deeper into the Continent, with pressure rising ahead of the next set of fronts, moving in from the Atlantic. As you can see from the ECM chart next to it, their view looks pretty much identical to me. 

       UKMO FAX  12z Thurs. 18th.             ECMWF 14z Thurs. Thurs. 18th

 

And make that 3 out of 3, with the 12z GFS Model run broadly in agreement with the above two:

              GFS 14z Thurs. 18th

But those Thunder lovers amongst you in the S.E, may well get your T/Storm fix in the next 24 hours.

Below, MeteoGroups' Susan Powell with "Weather for the Week ahead":

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

Ms Powell suggesting that our Region will be affected by T/Storms well into the Afternoon, and rumbling on into the Evening, on Wednesday.

But the Fronts set to cross our Region on Friday, look to fizzle out. Ms Powell is very apologetic in suggesting we will probably on get some cloud and drizzle but nothing to give the ground, a "solid wetting".

She did suggest a doubt that the Forecast wet Day for our Region on Sunday, may not materialise after all. It could be that the Low that is the catalyst for the Forecast Rain, enters the U.K. further North, meaning that our Region will miss out on much needed Rainfall. 

 Ms Powell ended her extended Forecast, on a cautionary note. She stated that Rainfall is likely to be pretty elusive, in our Region.

Also that pressure will begin to rise again from the South, during the last Week of Summer, resulting in temperatures warming up yet again.

I think it's an accepted fact now, that MeteoGroup tend to use the 00z ECM run, for their " Weather for the Week ahead", extended Forecast. 

Regards,

Tom Q 

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Jason T said:

Not out of the question though EE possibilities..also all that lovely energy they can pick up crossing the channel, nice recharge re load .

Yeah, interested to see what happens come nightfall, even if they collapse, they could produce an outflow Storm although those are typically day events, holding my excitement in for now.

[Mesoscale]

Convergeance zone from North France to West London? 

[Reefseeker]

Dry here in Surbiton since lunchtime but a good dousing of rain this morning.

Took this pic on our evening walk. I would guess it's the cell over approximately the Heathrow area on the radar.

[Mesoscale]

I can't see any lightning with this isolated cell over NW London. 

[Mesoscale]

Oh come on Level 2 in Sweden. 

European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX

WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG

 

[Eagle Eye]

7 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

Oh come on Level 2 in Sweden. 

European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX

WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG

 

Under a 50% for lightning though (not sure about Watford to be fair)would rather no severe weather anyway because the more Severe the weather, the bigger the impact on lives. Would be happy with a normal thunderstorm with persistent rain, as long as its not a dry thunderstorm.

Edited August 16, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Mesoscale]

Moderatley heavy rain with no lightning.

[Mark wheeler]

25 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

Dry here in Surbiton since lunchtime but a good dousing of rain this morning.

Took this pic on our evening walk. I would guess it's the cell over approximately the Heathrow area on the radar.

Got a few pics myself in Kingston , it still has not moved much although it is moving away . I see more cells are popping up but slightly to the north and west.

[lottiekent]

1 hour ago, bluebell said:

Same here, annoying amount of drops to prevent you from sitting out and reading as the pages get a bit damp, but not enough to justify a break from watering the veg patch!

Exactly that! Don’t trust it to rain overnight so went out with the watering can.