SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Tn9]

31 minutes ago, Snowangel-MK said:

Lots of really big fireplaces and an endless supply of wood

I’m looking forward to the crisp frosty mornings, as you say very mild so far - hopefully I’ve not jinxed us but new snow boots have been purchased, I take full responsibility for any down grades, but don’t worry I’ll hold off ordering the snowmobile (for now anyway) 🥹

Right I'm gonna give you first offer on a Canadian snow blower, dont worry full service history (never been near the lakes) so no heavy work just fine crystals ,your now thinking you've really blown it now ,if you excuse the pun

[Dbarb]

Any chance this will be repeated For reference this is a photo from Essex the date is unknown but likely 1947 or in the 60s. 

[Snowangel-MK]

14 minutes ago, TN9 said:

Right I'm gonna give you first offer on a Canadian snow blower, dont worry full service history (never been near the lakes) so no heavy work just fine crystals ,your now thinking you've really blown it now ,if you excuse the pun

12 years ago I might have been interested but I’m all good to go now thanks

 

[slater]

First time back since the summer,

So here are my thoughts for the up coming cold snap for this part of Mid Norfolk.

The odd light sleet shower possible, but that annoying thing that always happens in this set up heavy showers just of the coast that don’t swing inland. The annoying extra cloud that we get associated with the showers means we miss the hard frost that will keep night temps just above or below.So will miss that white cover grass frost .

In a blink the cold spell will be over just before Christmas and we will be wondering what all the fuss was about .Come Jan back to mild above temp cloudy/wet dross , you heard it hear first!!!!!  Hahaha 

[Tom Montalbano]

3 hours ago, Lampostwatcher said:

I feel we need an Atlantic low to cross the south into our cold air in the next 7-10 to have a significant snow cover event 

Evening all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

Yes Lpw, I would agree with that.

As I mentioned on Friday, the progression of this forecast spell of early Wintry Weather, is very reminiscent of the 2nd Week in December, 1981.

After the initial transition to a bitterly cold flow sourced from the Arctic, the whole of the U.K. was plunged into the freezer.

The dense bitter air became so embedded that the Atlantic found it really difficult to move into the U.K. Below, are archive charts from a little later in that spell, to illustrate my point:

   500hPa 18z Sun.13th Dec. 1981           500hPa 00z Mon.14th Dec. 1981 

 

After a fairly brief spell of heavy Snow, milder air overran our Region but further North it remained bitterly cold with heavy Snow, and when skies cleared at Night, severe Frosts with some record-breaking minimum temperatures.

A few Days later, the brief milder incursion was forced away to the South, as a slack area of Low Pressure, crossed N.France. This brought some new Snowfall, as the flow turned back into the East, off a now frigid nearby Continent:

    500hPa 00z Weds.16th Dec. 1981 

 

A similar event, occurred on 18th December, as another slack area of Low Pressure was forced further South into Central France. This deposited a further few inches of Snow, for parts of the Southern portions of our Region:

      500hPa 06z Fri.18th Dec. 1981

Another slack area of Low Pressure slid a little closer to our Region, this time across N.France. This served to top up the Snow depth, in time for Christmas Day. On Christmas Eve, my Parents location of Bromley North had a Snow depth, just short of 6 inches.

Although there was a fair amount of Snow on the ground on the "big" Day, it wasn't technically a "White Christmas", as no new Snow fell from the Sky. Christmas Day itself was bright but bitterly cold, under deep Snow cover.

     500hPa 12z Fri.25th Dec. 1981

The Atlantic finally broke through into our Region, late on Boxing Day.

      500hPa 18z Fri.26th Dec. 1981

 

All the above adds weight to the sentiment regarding "get the cold in first". 

I can remember feeling at the time that some of the Synoptics didn't seem that great for any great Snow events but the entrenched depth of cold resulted in mild Atlantic air being kept at bay, around the periphery of the U.K.

In the next few Days, apart from a subtle disturbance running South in the flow, our Region will be at the mercy, of the dreaded -

 - Wishbone effect. 

Any Snow/Wintry Showers likely to be restricted to the far North, and extreme East and West Coast areas.

This is depicted perfectly by the video clip of Sarah Keith-Lucas, with the outlook for the next few Days:

UK weather: Bitterly cold conditions on the way - BBC Weather

It looks as if it will be very cold for our Region but predominantly dry but it will be fascinating to see if the upcoming Synoptic pattern behaves in a similar way, as it did back in December 1981. 

But if is just going to be a case of the "Wishbone Effect" for our Region, this old f--t of a hippy Coldie, will have to console himself with this piece of the Wishbone:

Regards,

Tom Q.  

Edited December 6, 2022 by Tom Quintavalle

[Summer tyre]

1 hour ago, Dbarb said:

Any chance this will be repeated For reference this is a photo from Essex the date is unknown but likely 1947 or in the 60s. 

I vaguely remember something like this as a child - perhaps 1958 or 9? We were living in Great Missenden and I vividly remember walking through snow banks.

[Floatylight]

4 hours ago, Snowangel-MK said:

A rather chilly visit to Wimpole Hall today, warmed up with a tasty Christmas lunch,  but you can already feel the effects of the incoming polar air  

Bet that place looks stunning in the snow x

[Snowangel-MK]

44 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

Bet that place looks stunning in the snow x

I'm looking forward to getting some nice wintry photos like this one taken on the Woburn Estate when there was a splendid Hoar frost! 

[Bazza118]

No doubt we are in for a spell of proper winters weather. History tells us that once the cold is in it takes a while to budge so I feel we’ve a few very cold nights and ice days to come. Whilst the mod channel contemplate the ups and downs of Will it snow, rain be cold or mild I think we should enjoy the weather as it turns out. Personally I’d love some snow but some very cold frosty mornings will do. Off to ecmwf tomorrow so I’ll see what they say straight from the horses mouth

[Sparky68]

Barely above freezing on the commute , 1.5c at home and 0.5c in Milton Keynes.  Looks like the Mad Thread is doing it's usual.

[Flaked Queen]

Freezing just as it should be this time of year, I miss the seasons we used to have .

[Floatylight]

Woke up and decided to treat myself to a little boost of heating.

Because the fires gone out.

Time to go fill up the coal scuttle and clean out the fire and start again.

Porridge first.  

Then I have hair to do so better go out to my salon and turn that heater on ...££££ 

Wishing you all a great day .

[TROY]

Yay, we have our first proper frost, looking forward to a crisp sunny day. Good health to you all.

[Lampostwatcher]

Please ukmo be right

[Uxbridge90]

Looks like winter has arrived, a cold week ahead, keeping everything crossed the cold spell is short-lived and we can get some more mild weather in.

Dry for most of our region for now but will no doubt change. 

Currently 0.8c

Edited December 7, 2022 by Uxbridge90

[Captain Shortwave]

Plenty of sunny days ahead with a temperatures struggling to get above freezing. We may have to wait for snow (unless there is a surprise in store for later this week). 
Hopefully our chance for snow will come, just enjoy the bright and soon to be crisp conditions.

[Tom Montalbano]

Good Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well

Welcome to the first, and hopefully not many more, WishBONE dry Day. See what I did there?

I didn't need the METO Website to tell me that London and Crystal Palace, which is near to a former location of mine when I first joined NW, a TomSE20, to inform me that it was just a few degrees above freezing. My tingling skin on a Bathroom visit and the Moon shining through our Bedroom blinds, was the confirmation I needed that we were already in that Arctic sourced, Northerly.

But I had to cringe when ITV's London Forecaster [Sally Williams], informed us that it was very cold out there??

Try doing a Paper Round in temps of -5c, accompanied by deep Snow cover, as I did in the late 1960's. That's very cold, Sally!!

 No Central Heating, back in those Days. The net curtains in my Bedroom, stuck frozen to my windows.

Winter's natural frosted glass, for a Front Door. That's what I call very cold, Sally!!

But then again, we live in this time of "Climate Change", and this type of Forecast speak has now become the norm!!

As I stated the other Day, I have decided to give Sammy and Samantha Snowmen a break from their Countdown to Christmas Panto but will have a look on a Daily basis, how the Synoptics are shaping up, for Christmas Day.

We are now only Two Days away from the G.F.S. [American model], showing their idea of how Christmas Day will look, at t384.

I will now take a look, at the overnight 00z output. 

For the next 24 hours or so, we look to be stuck with the Wishbone Effect, syndrome:

           ECMWF 00z 8th Dec. [t24]                        GFS 00z 8th Dec.[t24]                      UKMO/EU 00z 8th Dec. [t24]

      

By Sunday [11th] and t96. all three major models continue to show very strong blocking, around Greenland. At this time the U.K. is under a slack flow, which is likely to be a pretty cold at the surface:

          ECMWF 00z 8th Dec. [t96]                        GFS 00z 8th Dec.[t96]                      UKMO/EU 00z 8th Dec. [t96]

    

By the time we get to next Tuesday [13th] and t144, not surprisingly we start to see some differing solutions, amongst the models:

     ECMWF 00z 8th Dec. [t144]                        GFS 00z 8th Dec.[t144]                      UKMO/EU 00z 8th Dec. [t144]

    

Below, is this Morning's Met Office update, with the continuing suggestion that cold Weather just after mid-Month, could start to relax its grip, over our Region. I've put the relevant sentences in Italics, just to highlight that point: 

Met Office UK long range weather forecast [11th Dec- 20th Dec]. 

"Cold weather is expected to continue through at least Sunday and into the beginning of next week, particularly in the north. Wintry showers will mainly affect coastal regions, with snow most likely over higher ground but perhaps falling to lower levels at times. By contrast, inland areas should see more in the way of fine and dry weather, with widespread frosts locally severe at times. While timing is uncertain for now, areas of cloud, rain and stronger winds are increasingly likely to progress into southwestern areas at times, with potential for significant snowfall along the leading edge of such systems. Temperatures remaining cold to very cold, with a chance of returning closer to normal across the south later into the period."

Just as a Snowy tease, thought I would post up the 00z ECMWF at t168 [14th Dec]:

       ECMWF 00z 14th Dec. [t168]   

It is very reminiscent of the following 500hPa archive chart, albeit some 17 Days later and back on 31st December 1978:

        ERA 00z 31st Dec. 1978   

Along with the following archive Chart -   [Mon, 12th Jan. 1987],

are my all time favourite "Snowmageddon" Charts.

The 31st December 1978 Chart, has been my Laptop's wallpaper, for as many Years as I can remember!!

 After a jaunt in the Netweather archive vaults and surprised to find my old "Demise of the Greenland High in Winter Thread", thought I would have another nose around, to see what I could find. I came up with the following couple of what I think, are very interesting Threads.

Firstly, Paul Sherman's superb analysis of the Thames Snow Streamer event of 1st/2nd February 2009.

This will always be known to Yours Truly as the, Polystyrene Balls Affair [apologies Paul]. Below is the link, to Paul's superb analysis:

Thames Snow Streamer Event 1/2nd Feb 2009 | Winter Weather Discussion (netweather.tv)

It's definitely worth a read, for simply trying to understand why this Thames Snow Streamer "behaved" so differently to other T.S.S. events.

I also found the following Thread that Yours Truly began, back in November 2014:

UK "Snow Streamer" events. | Winter Weather Discussion (netweather.tv)

I also stumbled across another one of my old Threads but I dare not mention it, in here.

It has a curse attached to it much more potent than any curse, that may be attributed to an Egyptian Mummy or Pharoah.

The very talk of it, could evaporate any chances of Snowfall events in the S.E. Region.

It was devised against the backdrop of corrupt and dodgy dealings, amongst talk of "brown envelopes" being exchanged at Addington Village, Tram Stop.

But it was an innocent time back in pre-Covid Days and before the mass exodus of S.E. Regional members, to a Facebook page.

Our ALEXISJ9 lived in Croydon, as well as Yours Truly working there in the "concrete Jungle".

Also, and obviously the inspiration for T.O.W,I.E, one Female Member from Essex actually measured any Snowfall, whilst tottering about in her white stilettoes. 

Returning to the here and now, if I was still a Betting Man and I was many moons ago but that particular "Avenue of Pleasure" has been well and truly closed, and "little nest of Vipers"/"fire breathing dragon", doesn't want it opened up again.

 I might be tempted to have a couple of "Virtual" £'s on the likes of EAST_ENGLAND_STORMCHASER, NORFOLK SHEEP, YARMY or any other members in the extreme N.E. of our Region, to record the first Snowflake of the Winter!! Apologies to the above, if it doesn't transpire.

Now I've blown it SNOWANGEL-MK, it's your fault for giving me that separate Thread, back in the Day.

I had an idea it was you Ali, when you appeared the other Day!!

Right that's enough Tomfoolery from me, I've got a World Cup Competition to update!!

Regards,

Tomtankhamun and my fire breathing Dragon [Wife, Colette].  

[lassie23]

Nice and warm in the sunshine

[Lampostwatcher]

Nice and cold in the sunshine

[snowblind]

Only got down to 1.8 last night, or should I say at 8 this morning. Still only 2 now. 

Sunny but feels really cold out there. I made the mistake of going out without a hat this morning and regretted it.

[danm]

[snowspotter]

Just as an idea of how bad the app forecasts are my iPhone is currently saying it 5c here and sunny ……well I can report it’s cloudy and 3.3c on my weather station 

[Mark wheeler]

20 minutes ago, danm said:

Was that on the latest forecast? Latest Aprege has something for us on Sunday.

 

Also this grazes the tip of kent on Friday morning.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Mark wheeler

[Reefseeker]

Just a quick mention of the post @Tom Quintavalle has already linked - when @Paul Sherman analysed the 2009 snow streamer and where it went wrong in some parts of the region. I was so impressed by his analysis that as a result I joined in 'properly' on Netweather from then onwards. Also, thank you @Eagle Eye and the follow-up post by @Paul linking the @snowking post (are you still following?!) about the complex relationship between 850 temperatures and ground temperatures at this time of the year when we are seeking cold and snowy outcomes. Snowking, along with Chiono, Nick F and Kold Weather are posters I always watch carefully in terms of their analysis when cold and snow are in the offing; other posters are available...

Another beautiful day today, blue skies and a few clouds. Yesterday's clouds had a very 'cold' look about them if you know what I mean, this morning's are fluffier and pinker by comparison. The wild parakeets are extremely busy at the moment as they always are when cold weather arrives.

[Mark wheeler]

Arome has some light patchy snow showing for Friday moving down from the north, lets hope this is one of those features that pop up at short notice and is being under done . One can hope eh .

Edited December 7, 2022 by Mark wheeler