SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Stroudley]

-4.0 the low for us last night. 

Coldest for us since 8 March 2021...

 

[Mark wheeler]

28 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Sadly it's heading for Normandy instead it seems but there's hope with the latest Met warnings showing 2-10cms quite widely across the SE& S'ern EA

We certainly need to stay level headed at this juncture, some models like the Arome have this feature but the latest UKMO like the aprege only has this scraping kent . 
 

Only one run but I will be furiously checking all the runs for this later . At least we have a chance.
 

 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine UKMO 0.1° du UK MetOffice (météo angaise) sur 5 zones (France, Nord-Ouest, Nord-Est, Sud-Ouest, Sud-Est...

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Mark wheeler

[Tn9]

2 hours ago, UKSnakey said:

This has come up a couple of times as well. A previous output gave near identical placement 

I did say when blessed said surprises..right through a few days really 

[alexisj9]

We'll those showers are missing literally just hitting the corner of East Kent, however looks like a few stragglers will indeed give us some rain.

[weirpig]

First winter here. And a snow warning. Never in doubt 

[lottiekent]

6 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

I think there's actually a hoar frost outside here in Dover, fog about so I think it's freezing fog and hoar frost, rather than what it looks like, not sure it's a thin dusting.

It was the same here in Folkestone this morning, down to -1c and fog horn going. Looked out and was thick frost covering everything.

[DJ Fart]

Looking good for Sunday evening.  Dare I say that these things tend to get blown up nearer the time??

[Tn9]

7 minutes ago, DJ Fart said:

Looking good for Sunday evening.  Dare I say that these things tend to get blown up nearer the time??

You sound like a bomber pilot lol ,bright blue sky here now ..if it wasn't for 2c and no leaves on trees you would think its summer ...

[Mark wheeler]

Latest  Arome ( didn't even know there was one until today ) shows even more snow and over a wider area for Monday . Please see attached and the 6z run also to compare . 
 

Going to be a roller coaster in itself this .

 

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Latest  Arome ( didn't even know there was one until today ) shows even more snow and over a wider area for Monday . Please see attached and the 6z run also to compare . 
 

Going to be a roller coaster in itself this .

 

Snow in the Triangle of Doom? Pull the other one!

[Mark wheeler]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Snow in the Triangle of Doom? Pull the other one!

I thought that when I saw it . What's good I suppose is that in a way its consistent with the feature . Lets Hope consistently right. 

[Coopsy]

If you live around north Kent and particularly blue bell hill region I’d say that’s looking prime for some of the deepest snows, both from the system that’s moving in but also if the winds turn NE afterwards for convective showers off the sea. Obviously elevation key particularly if there’s a wind change. 

That’s based on the info now but could change of course.

However as the Met O have said I think many places could do well out of this though

[Methuselah]

The good news is that last night's 'rain' was in fact freezing sleet; the bad news is trying to walk on it!

[Lampostwatcher]

Very interesting warning for the southeast 

[Neilsouth]

Dead battery yesterday car wouldn't start, had to pick up a new one costing £140!!! Great start to Christmas.

Still, from the look of the battery it was 20 years old anyway.. So I can deal with the snow now 

[Mark wheeler]

Aprege says Yes on this run

[chionomaniac]

13 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Dead battery yesterday car wouldn't start, had to pick up a new one costing £140!!! Great start to Christmas.

Still, from the look of the battery it was 20 years old anyway.. So I can deal with the snow now 

A new car for £140. You did very well indeed. 

[Bogman]

10 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

A new car for £140. You did very well indeed. 

[Neilsouth]

23 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

A new car for £140. You did very well indeed. 

That would be funny if it didn't say "Dead battery" 

[Bazza118]

the early freezing fog disappeared and the temp soared when the sun came out to the dizzy heights of 0.7c. It's now on the way down, and being as it is clear it might be a very frosty one tonight.

[Mark wheeler]

  

 

its on the Gfs 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Mark wheeler

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

The good news is that last night's 'rain' was in fact freezing sleet; the bad news is trying to walk on it!

Dover had rain at 15:00 today lol called it. Was hoping to be wrong and get a flurry if I'm honest.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Dover had rain at 15:00 today lol called it. Was hoping to be wrong and get a flurry if I'm honest.

And all this sleet & rain justifies those of us who questioned the T850s?

[Kentspur]

47 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

  

 

its on the Gfs 

Although the high resolution shows rain in my area by the Thames as usual aswell as parts of East Sussex&SW Kent further South etc. BBC and Met app both show sleet BBC then goes onto show heavy snow symbols for Gravesend light snow for me at work in Dartford on my 12hr night shift.

 

Anyone post the 6z NMM earlier? Looks like it spreads from the east on here Monday morning.

 

Fingers crossed for a region wide SE&EA snow event to set the Mad thread off  

Edited December 9, 2022 by Kentspur

[pinball wizard]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And all this sleet & rain justifies those of us who questioned the T850s?

With these 850's we'd need heavy ppn for evaporative cooling to do its bit and deliver snow.

Problem to date in my view has been too slack a pattern, 850's have been marginal and what wind there has been has been from the nw quadrant creating a wishbone effect to ppn. IF we get a more Easterly component to the wind it'd open the door to north sea convection creating heavier and more wintry ppn, albeit the risk of marginality due to current sea temps. Not easy to get the white stuff at this stage of winter.

All that said, Sunday into Monday is looking more interesting. If the small low develops as some models suggest then we may get both a more easterly wind coming off the continent alongside some oomph from the ppn. All to play for and it's the weekend to boot