SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Reefseeker]

43 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

 its on the Gfs

Oh 'eck! Really really wishing this one could come true! It's my son's birthday on Monday 12th, he's 23 but regulars may know he has autism so is a little younger about birthdays and Christmas than his age would suggest. He is also a massive snow lover. If I blurt out the possibility of snow then, well that'll jinx the whole thing, so I'll keep it to myself... for now... if I can! Driving early doors to the west country for a Christmas pub lunch with my mother tomorrow morning, so I'm hoping there isn't too much freezing fog across Salisbury Plain.

The cloud here finally cleared around 2pm leaving a beautiful clear blue sky, temperature stayed around 4 degrees, now down to 1.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, pinball wizard said:

With these 850's we'd need heavy ppn for evaporative cooling to do its bit and deliver snow.

Problem to date in my view has been too slack a pattern, 850's have been marginal and what wind there has been has been from the nw quadrant creating a wishbone effect to ppn. IF we get a more Easterly component to the wind it'd open the door to north sea convection creating heavier and more wintry ppn, albeit the risk of marginality due to current sea temps. Not easy to get the white stuff at this stage of winter.

All that said, Sunday into Monday is looking more interesting. If the small low develops as some models suggest then we may get both a more easterly wind coming off the continent alongside some oomph from the ppn. All to play for and it's the weekend to boot

Absolutely... Which is just why it's all so marginal.?

[Mark wheeler]

UKMO 12z run does have snow for the south east but quite small amounts.

[Snowman.]

6 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

UKMO 12z run does have snow for the south east but quite small amounts.

Believe 0z had nothing. 
 

So the signal is increasing just very hard to pin down. Probably going to be a radar watcher. 

[Mark wheeler]

NMM , Bit like the UKMO 

[Tn9]

3 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

I thought that when I saw it . What's good I suppose is that in a way its consistent with the feature . Lets Hope consistently right. 

I've looked in to it ,consistency,isn't a great tool at the moment ,nothing weighs up , this to that etc etc.. take it with a pinch of salt water 

Edited December 9, 2022 by TN9

[Eagle Eye]

This setup is very much radar watcher, a rash of increased precipitation is easily missed by the models as they aren't high resolution enough to include the gravity waves helping to add vertical 'vorticity' that cause the effects of heavy precipitation in areas that can't be modelled very well. In the Summer this is less of a problem with over estimated dewpoints often and potential vorticity lobes I think are slightly over modelled in the Summer but it's still not great and convergence is another thing that can be missed as well so that's why we can see unmodelled areas of precipitation or undermodelled snow depth charts.

[Mark wheeler]

Looks like Harmonie is following the last aprege run to a degree and looks like it would be good if it went on . I am Having fun chasing this . 
 

I am posting a lot more than normal because I am off work at the moment with a flare from my ulcerative colitis . My current medication is losing its effectiveness , hence the flare .

Got an appointment in just over a weeks time to start meds . Until then I have my hobbies and the world cup to keep me occupied.

Edited December 9, 2022 by Mark wheeler
Spelling

[Tn9]

5 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

This setup is very much radar watcher, a rash of increased precipitation is easily missed by the models as they aren't high resolution enough to include the gravity waves helping to add vertical 'vorticity' that cause the effects of heavy precipitation in areas that can't be modelled very well. In the Summer this is less of a problem with over estimated dewpoints often and potential vorticity lobes I think are slightly over modelled in the Summer but it's still not great and convergence is another thing that can be missed as well so that's why we can see unmodelled areas of precipitation or undermodelled snow depth charts.

Yea Croydon of all places huh? ,you think what's happened there

 

Heat island effect i think  

Edited December 9, 2022 by TN9

[Captain Shortwave]

Still uncertainty regarding the weekend, but the punt will be

Eastern and southern parts of the region near the North Sea/English channel - The chance of slow moving showers moving inland (Especially on Sunday), these will fall as snow.

Central and western areas - Mostly fine, Saturday will be sunniest day with the risk of more widespread freezing fog on Sunday.

Temperatures 

Saturday

0-2c

Sunday

 

-2c to 2c (Below freezing in areas stuck under fog patches).

[minus10]

According to my phone the temp has been stuck at -1 for the last 2 hours...why isnt it falling as perfect clear sky tonite...?

[John Stevens]

Looks like we’re going to get some proper winter this week on our brief return to Blighty!! Had a first dose of some “weather” in Al Ain today, desert and a heavy downpour! When it stopped, it was just like a tape being turned off!!

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

According to my phone the temp has been stuck at -1 for the last 2 hours...why isnt it falling as perfect clear sky tonite...?

Well there is some high cloud here. But it's cold regardless.

[Iceman2606]

Cold & Clear Winter's Day - 8 December 2022 Time-Lapse

 

[Nick F]

Has the Met Office issuing a yellow warning again scuppered our chances, looks like most models backing away from a snowfall event for the southeast on Sunday/early Monday, 18z GFS now has no interest while 18z ICON barely clips Kent, 12z EC not interested either. Oh well ...

[clark3r]

Mean while BBC have just update the forecast for me 100% this will not be showing in the forecast tomorrow, on plus side how often is the 18z inaccurate 

[lottiekent]

4 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

Looks like Harmonie is following the last aprege run to a degree and looks like it would be good if it went on . I am Having fun chasing this . 
 

I am posting a lot more than normal because I am off work at the moment with a flare from my ulcerative colitis . My current medication is losing its effectiveness , hence the flare .

Got an appointment in just over a weeks time to start meds . Until then I have my hobbies and the world cup to keep me occupied.

Hope you start feeling better soon.

Not so chilly here so far tonight, hovering between 0c and 1c all evening

[Eagle Eye]

Everything can change in the morning 

It's a high risk setup, let's just see how things go...

[Tn9]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

Well there is some high cloud here. But it's cold regardless.

-3c here ,clear as a bell 

[Tn9]

Little centre of  low off North  East  Coast of Scotland,,oh !.its like watching slow motion,because that actually if it didn't dilly dally about and break up pull good tasty winds in from a lovely direction with extra cold and moisture but its seems painfully slow ,sped up we would be laughing  

[Mark wheeler]

55 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Has the Met Office issuing a yellow warning again scuppered our chances, looks like most models backing away from a snowfall event for the southeast on Sunday/early Monday, 18z GFS now has no interest while 18z ICON barely clips Kent, 12z EC not interested either. Oh well ...

Still there on the latest ukmo run , not pronounced though. 

[snowrye]

It'll be gone by morning

[trickybirdy]

Not really sure what to post.  There's a lot of negative posts on here already!  We are in an area that could go either way, I'm just happy to see more seasonal Weather. It's lovely to experience seasonal frosts and live very close to London.  I've not. been able to venture into the local ancient forest land to experience the frost locally and feel I have lost out. If the frost has is as reliable as it is on my car, ice was very close to zero when I went out at mid day and driving about went up by 2 degrees wherever I went!

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

This Is what the ALARO is showing so not definitely off (obviously first chart is just a general one) just yet.

 

[alexisj9]

50 minutes ago, snowrye said:

It'll be gone by morning

Not sure the fax chart shows a streamer. Ps is it showing no ppn, or just no snow, cause it wouldn't surprise me if it fell as rain tbh.