SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Kentspur]

4 hours ago, Nick F said:

06z GFS moves back northwest, maybe more than Kent still in the game...for now

I'm in that area of Kent which is in its own microclimate. Bordering London and Essex we often miss the snowfalls from NEly that the rest of Kent get and yet like late Jan 2020 we were then too far east for the snow that London Surrey Herts etc got we had rain mainly and some sleet that day! My road itself also has a microclimate im right by the Thames its often not even frosty here yet the top of my road and elsewhere has frost. Only an ENEly Thames streamer style setup gives us a decent amount of the white stuff which is rare as.

 

Oh and December 2017 wrong side of the Thames for snow when most of Essex was covered 

Edited December 10, 2022 by Kentspur

[Tn9]

3 hours ago, Nick F said:

I think you mean folks referring to the models that were showing frontal systems moving in from the southwest with Atlantic lows trying to introduce milder air / breakdown of the cold. Late tomorrow's little low is entirely within the cold air, milder air is way south over southern half of France, so there is no milder being brought in by tomorrow's system.

Yea I agree but only because in the slack its trying to find a little centre or a couple of them , upper level cloud is already coming from sw so its a look at radar job tomorrow,at the moment I reckon Sussex,Dorset inland of course ,where they are initiated is not always where they dump their goods ..warm water ,less it generates  a little feature which is not out of the realms of possibility by a long shot

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It’ll take a miracle to get snowfall in areas around London.

[Lampostwatcher]

I'm literally only in the warning area by 2 miles 

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

It’ll take a miracle to get snowfall in areas around London.

Your only roughly about 8 miles west of the warning you never know 

[Tn9]

3 hours ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Metoffice still going for a chance of disruptive snowfall for the southeast 

9am till 9am monday

Yea thats about right ,blink and your miss it

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

11 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

I'm literally only in the warning area by 2 miles 

Your only roughly about 8 miles west of the warning you never know 

Nah, the Met Office tend to over egg their weather warnings especially for the South East because no one has a clue how to deal with snowfall!

[Tn9]

2 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

It is weird, I mean technically, Japan  is in the same boat as us, in the middle of a warm Pacific, but get snow much easier.

Not really because if oregon didn't have dirty great mountains (cascades ) or california (Sierra  nevada)they wouldn't get much snow either ,mount st helens ,mount hood ,etc are  anomalies because they are volcanoes ,really high ,but they on the  coast have same problem,unless like us they get the wind right ,with the main drivers el nino etc ,they have dirty great high sitting like we do over Europe or azores , Japan would, if there was one ,an island in the  Atlantic would be just off nova scotia  

ps you don't want us  to be like japan ,if its not snowing its a typhoon,if not massive waves ,or just when didn't need it earthquake 

Edited December 10, 2022 by TN9

[alexisj9]

42 minutes ago, TN9 said:

Not really because if oregon didn't have dirty great mountains (cascades ) or california (Sierra  nevada)they wouldn't get much snow either ,mount st helens ,mount hood ,etc are  anomalies because they are volcanoes ,really high ,but they on the  coast have same problem,unless like us they get the wind right ,with the main drivers el nino etc ,they have dirty great high sitting like we do over Europe or azores , Japan would, if there was one ,an island in the  Atlantic would be just off nova scotia  

ps you don't want us  to be like japan ,if its not snowing its a typhoon,if not massive waves ,or just when didn't need it earthquake 

 You're right there. I don't want to be like Japan, just want easier snow opportunities lol.

[TSNWK]

Icon has no snow at all this week for us..ukm12z further south east as well.

Trending the wrong way for us gang

 

[Scandinavian High.]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Icon has no snow at all this week for us..ukm12z further south east as well.

Trending the wrong way for us gang

 

We never really do well northerly just hope snowy Easterly comes along .

[clark3r]

This is really annoying as we have everything in place for snow now will be massive let down if we get nothing before the cold snap is out.

need a nudge north west in next 12 hours otherwise tomorrow nights snow chance is over for me

Edited December 10, 2022 by clark3r

[Snowangel-MK]

The sign pretty much sums up the last 5 hours of my day “Arctic” !

We still have thick frost where the sun hasn’t been, so at least the ground is white and it looks pretty  - I’m going to sit in a hot bath with a mug of mulled wine until I thaw out, fabulous time at the Red Bull Homerun though but even with thermals & ski wear it was tough standing around but worth it  

Edited December 10, 2022 by Snowangel-MK

[RhHh]

16 minutes ago, clark3r said:

This is really annoying as we have everything in place for snow now will be massive let down if we get nothing before the cold snap is out.

need a nudge north west in next 12 hours otherwise tomorrow nights snow chance is over for me

Keep the faith, I'm sure we'll all get at least a dusting.

[Tn9]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

 You're right there. I don't want to be like Japan, just want easier snow opportunities lol.

But there is a window for us al ,in the same period like it has been all along later tomorrow,but we need a circulation in channel to throw a brief southerly  , like (gfs says maybe just south of Isle of Wight stronger the better so we least have half a chance in the cold air and warm water to the south but like yourself we haven't much channel to play with like an easterly ,unless its stronger feature and devopes a little  through ,then the big boys come along and floors us but by looks not all is lost  later  ( but 20 odd miles of water maybe not enough for heavy showers

for us here 

[Kent Blizzard]

From now until potential mild I will be closely monitoring the radar and any written Meto forecasts.

4pm Meto key update notes:-

Tomorrow - A risk of Wintry showers to parts of the Region

Tuesday/Wednesday - Small chance of Snow Showers along the Coast (this has been modelled for a while)

It will be a shame if it's a dry but very cold spell, enjoy the ride and good luck all.

Edited December 10, 2022 by Kent Blizzard

[Darkcloud]

What are the chances of that lot out in the channel making it inland? Have been keeping an eye on the radar since 4pm and it just seems to be flirting with the south coast!

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Darkcloud said:

What are the chances of that lot out in the channel making it inland? Have been keeping an eye on the radar since 4pm and it just seems to be flirting with the south coast!

0

[Tim Bland]

Expecting a mainly cloudy day for the whole region tomorrow, many areas seeing a few light flurries even if they miss out on the main action 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

3 minutes ago, Darkcloud said:

What are the chances of that lot out in the channel making it inland? Have been keeping an eye on the radar since 4pm and it just seems to be flirting with the south coast!

There’s snow chance of snow inland.

Quite a pathetically dry spell.

[Tn9]

10 minutes ago, Darkcloud said:

What are the chances of that lot out in the channel making it inland? Have been keeping an eye on the radar since 4pm and it just seems to be flirting with the south coast!

Flirting ...this  what you could have,but can't ..not till the wind changes anyway ,leaves us high or low and dry really doesn't it ,it really is a radar job I think ,the models won't tell you exactly ,if they can you won't have their  resolution but rhe precipitation doesn't lie ..

 

[alexisj9]

14 minutes ago, Darkcloud said:

What are the chances of that lot out in the channel making it inland? Have been keeping an eye on the radar since 4pm and it just seems to be flirting with the south coast!

Had some weird clouds for the time of year slowly drifting about earlier while shopping. There is instability about.

[Tn9]

9 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Had some weird clouds for the time of year slowly drifting about earlier while shopping. There is instability about.

But high cloud this afternoon  or medium height was moving north east so somethings afoot ,I reckon unless strong..its west Sussex,East Sussex,Surrey at a push ,me and  you out of the game ..watch us get loads now lol  .    

 

Ps I didnt know about what your said about wind farms....thanks for that ,what  does it do throw moisture up and fool the radar ???

Edited December 10, 2022 by TN9

[alexisj9]

10 minutes ago, TN9 said:

But high cloud this afternoon  or medium height was moving north east so somethings afoot ,I reckon unless strong..its west Sussex,East Sussex,Surrey at a push ,me and  you out of the game ..watch us get loads now lol  .    

 

Ps I didnt know about what your said about wind farms....thanks for that ,what  does it do throw moisture up and fool the radar ???

 Basically yes.  Normally shows up in a northeasterly wind just above Ramsgate, but there isn't a wind farm where that showers last night was, I don't think.

[snowrye]

Well, the local weather forecast, has just put the kybosh on snow

[Polaris]

37 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

There’s snow chance of snow inland.

Quite a pathetically dry spell.

Since the cold temperatures began the Meto have forecasted ‘dry and cold’ here and they were not wrong. 
 

Next 7 days for here is also ‘dry and cold’ 

With such low temps by day and night for such a long period, I don’t think I can ever remember such a DRY cold spell with a North and East based airmass. 
 

Good luck to those SE and E of London tomorrow. Fingers crossed you guys in that local can saviour the dryness.