SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[clark3r]

This is really frustrating but if this does turn to to snow it’s going to be like an ice rink 

Edited December 11, 2022 by clark3r

[danm]

1 minute ago, Planet Stow said:

What you recon our chances are for Chingford/Walthamstow?

All depends how much the low pivots. Hard to say right now. 

[SHM040519]

Back to sleet in canterbury. Vile! Hope it turns later

[nick sussex]

The models are all over the place and at this range you’d think they’d be able to nail this .

 

[alexisj9]

24 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

Kent is about to be buried( slight exaggeration maybe)

Beried in ice may be, got some of that ice mixed in with the rain again. If it gets heavy that likely to stay still, as last night's is still there, and dangerous cause of the rain we've just had. Ps stepped on a puddle thinking opps, but it was iced over, could see water moving underneath it though.

[Tim Bland]

Supposed they haven’t upgraded the warnings looking at the radar!

[Lampostwatcher]

Warning area looks spot on atm

[alexisj9]

19 minutes ago, SHM040519 said:

Remember the warning doesn’t come into place till 6pm! 

When it pivot's and moves back south perhaps.

[lilaczukee]

Snowing in Crawley 

[HammerJack]

Can anyone post up the latest radar please

[alexisj9]

20 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Possible we have freezing rain falling near the South Coast?

Reports coming in of 'carnage' near Seaford as 6 separate RTC in the last hour on black ice.

Probably. All I know is my walk to the shop was scarry just now.

[tight isobar]

Abysmal model deciphering early on as  miss matching on precipitation values/ types/ potential geographical points!! . The system getting its act together now in /around the Chanel, stick at it.. some will do well from this developing situation a line from east anglia down to- and around the Southampton area look good to me... these things are tricky in pivot deciphering at the best of times. A truly txt book nowcast scenario playing out here... this evening will be interesting

[alexisj9]

11 minutes ago, clark3r said:

This is really frustrating but if this does turn to to snow it’s going to be like an ice rink 

Already is.

[Kasim Awan]

There are two main risks. The first is for this afternoon / early evening mainly for inland Kent / eastern London, 3-8cm possible fairly widely. A localized 12-15cm possible on the tops of the Kent hills. A possibility the heavy stuff will reach central London - atm on the edge so probs near 5050. The immediate coast will keep rain and near to the coast a mix with snow under the main core. As winds veer NW later this may allow some snow on coast.

Another development early hours into Essex / north London with similar pattern of snowfall i.e. scattered accumulation on coast with general 3-8cm inland & localized 10cm+ likely. This may reach central East Anglia / Cambridge early hours producing 2-5cm. Locally up to 15cm may fall in a narrow corridor in Essex / Herfordshire.

 

 

 

[Lampostwatcher]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Abysmal model deciphering early on as  miss matching on precipitation values/ types/ potential geographical points!! . The system getting its act together now in /around the Chanel, stick at it.. some will do well from this developing situation a line from east anglia down to- and around the Southampton area look good to me... these things are tricky in pivot deciphering at the best of times. A truly txt book nowcast scenario playing out here... this evening will be interesting

What time do you think it will pivot 

[nick sussex]

This early in the season and with this depth of cold an offshore flow would be important if you’re near the coast .

Just looking at the general picture I think more west Kent/Surrey borders would be more favoured .

London away from the estuary and into parts of inland Essex. As the shallow feature edges east ne then I would think you’d get some reports of snow west into the se Hants  areas  edging east into West and East Sussex as the flow starts to become more ne .

It’s very complicated ! 

[East Kent Snow Desert]

Bordering on snow here at times due to intensity. My worry here in East Kent is that once the system has pivoted tonight and moves back south east dragging down temps and DP there won't be much precipitation around by then.  Anyone know whether wind direction changes to north east tomorrow/Tuesday?

[Snowman.]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Supposed they haven’t upgraded the warnings looking at the radar!

Models aren’t great at convection. I was feeling confident yesterday morning after the previous failings from the models in the SW and NW. 

My biggest fear is the DPs rising, as the wind swings round. 

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

What time do you think it will pivot 

Who knows at an educated guess between 8/11pm...

[Keefo]

A wintry mix falling here--still 1.8C

 

[Lampostwatcher]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Who knows at an educated guess between 8/11pm...

I see your on the boarder of the warning area 

In uxbridge how you thinking this will pan out for you 

[Tn9]

16 minutes ago, Planet Stow said:

What you recon our chances are for Chingford/Walthamstow?

 

16 minutes ago, Planet Stow said:

What you recon our chances are for Chingford/Walthamstow?

pretty good ,for precipitation,later what it falls as is a toss up ,but i feel its  rotating over me and your get a pick and mix but more likely snow later ,obviously height helps ,its is rotating  and moving northeast if there was an eye in it ide have the blue sky 

[SHM040519]

Is now justrain in canterbury. If we want any snow best chance will be overnight I believe. Not that I expect anything! 

[lawrenk]

Moderate sleety rain here in Hailsham. What’s your thinking,Nick, for this neck of the woods?

[Freeze]

Freezing rain here, icicles everywhere.