SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, James1979 said:

Seems storm '87 was a trigger for weather interest for many of us here including me! I was 8 and living in Romford Essex at the time and awoke to what I initially thought was the sea and waves slamming against the house, it was so loud and hissing/roaring/banging, I was terrified. Then there was the constant flashing alongside this which I thought was power lines not lightning but could be wrong. Looking out the window all we could see was destruction, bricks flying down the road, trees and walls coming down, just madness. Next day was incredible for me, with all the trees down I collected sacks of conkers- back in the day conkers were almost like currency in the playground! Scenes of devastation will stay with me forever. '87 was quite a year as the epic snow that year was also fascinating. 

I was 9 lol, think we were all similar ages too 

[Donna3397]

It’s howling along there now, lol 

[pages]

Icon, slightly  north than 18z run

 GFS a lot more so, and looks a  worrying the purple shading touching the coast at 7am between Brighton and Eastbourne depicts gusts of 110 knots/125mph

 

[Tom Montalbano]

4 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

I was 9 lol, think we were all similar ages too 

Morning all S.E. Members.

Hope you are all prepared for what our Region, is about to receive. 

Crikey, you lot make me feel old. I was 32 at that time, Alexis!!

1 hour ago, Donna3397 said:

It’s howling along there now, lol 

Yes Donna, rather than the Moon waking me up, I was woken up by some steady Rain and a gusty wind, just before 4 A.M. 

But this is just the Hors D'oeuvres before Ciarán provides the main course, later on Today:

 

Then, it's all eyes on this deepening Low on Saturday to provide the 3rd course and whether it will be strong enough to be named Storm Debi. 

As we've seen from those images of Arundel and Hastings recently, some Rivers in the southern areas of our Region, have burst their banks. 

As with other parts of England, the Environment Agency have issued Flood Warnings for many parts of the S.E. Region: 

Flood warnings - BBC Weather

This was last Night's video forecast from Alex Deakin at the Met Office: 

Still seems to be a bit of doubt about Ciarán's exact track but it is now undergoing rapid cyclogenesis, out in the Atlantic.

With talk of cyclogenesis and doubt, the following track seems an apt way to end this post:

Regards,

Tom Q. 

Edited November 1, 2023 by Tom Quintavalle

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Donna3397 said:

It’s howling along there now, lol 

Same

[Freeze]

1 hour ago, pages said:

Icon, slightly  north than 18z run

 GFS a lot more so, and looks a  worrying the purple shading touching the coast at 7am between Brighton and Eastbourne depicts gusts of 110 knots/125mph

 

Colour code is kph, so that bit by brighton is about 65/70mph not 125 lol.

[Harry's House]

Very windy and now very heavy rain now. A foretaste of Ciaran?

[Neilsouth]

28 minutes ago, Harry's House said:

Very windy and now very heavy rain now. A foretaste of Ciaran?

Rain and wind is worse than forecasted :(

[This Moody Sky]

Hi everyone,

Are we all braced for tonight/tomorrow? Absolutely chucking it down, here. A little precursor. A flavour, perhaps. 

[Uxbridge90]

Not expecting much in my neck of the woods, most likely a bog-standard Autmun storm  but nearer the coasts and further South of the region looks like it could get a bit messy. 

 

[Lauren]

Seems to be downgrading here every run. Think it will very much be nowcasting.

[Vortex3929]

This update on the 06z gfs, at least for Kent does look near identical to the amber alert. Noting the purple pushing into the isle of sheppey and the amber alert covering same isle. Interesting to look at. But haven't a scooby how it'll turn out of course. Will just look out the window tomorrow. Better accuracy 

[Snow Queen one]

To me the models still seem to keep shifting this North.  Our little corner of the UK will not be a nice place to be early tomorrow and through the day.  Even if we only get 50 to mph winds trees are still going to come down and the low pressure will push water inland through our waterways.  And thats without the rain adding to things.  I hope its downgraded i really do but if not i can see a lot of flooding coming our way.  I am just outside the amber warning area which i am happy about but the track is still not set in stone and the storm has not bombed yet.

Edited November 1, 2023 by Snow Queen one

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Harry's House said:

Very windy and now very heavy rain now. A foretaste of Ciaran?

Another storm in front of Ciaran, getting ridiculous really lol.

[lawrenk]

Not getting good vibes about tomorrow for our corner. The latest trend seems to be northwards, which is exactly what we don’t want to see. About 10 miles inland from the south coast here, which is well in the Amber zone.

I could see this being upgraded to red, if the track becomes more certain later on today, especially as it’s happening during daytime hours here tomorrow when more people are out and about. 

[LightningLover]

UKV tickling the East Sussex coast with 80-90mph winds again- That comes after a notable and cross model shift North this morning. Looking pretty significant to say the least!  

[moogyboobles]

I've still got one son young enough to be in school, and the school have just email about the storm and how they are keeping an eye on things and making plans if needed. 

[alexisj9]

I'll check my emails and see, if mine have done similar.

[VillagePlank]

The worst of it for the SE seems to be around 6am, according to GFS 0.25, 12z.

I'm not sure about the track of the LP, I think it will veer further North. In particular with it's interaction with the other LP, NW of Ireland. The strongest part of the jet-stream aloft is well east of UK by this time.

Of more concern is saturated ground with trees with most of the leaves still on - could be lots of disruption come morning rush-hour, in particularly for the overcrowded SE notwithstanding some excessive rainfall totals.

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by VillagePlank

[snowray]

Maybe we could have a competition for the strongest winds in our region tomorrow?

I'll got for 85mph.

[Floatylight]

I just looked again and wind speeds have picked up on forecast from midnight .

Which is earlier than I thought?

I have 50mph plus at midnight?

I hate overnight storms.

Can't see what know earth is going on!

 

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

I just looked again and wind speeds have picked up on forecast from midnight .

Which is earlier than I thought?

I have 50mph plus at midnight?

I hate overnight storms.

Can't see what know earth is going on!

 

Think everything slightly further north again on the 12z runs.

[Reefseeker]

1 minute ago, Floatylight said:

I just looked again and wind speeds have picked up on forecast from midnight .

Which is earlier than I thought?

I have 50mph plus at midnight?

I hate overnight storms.

Can't see what know earth is going on!

 

Same, I find them very difficult sleeping in the attic with so much noise, it always sounds as if the roof might come off! I'm still hoping for a shift south and just a standard, stormy day in this area; but as others have said, it feels it could go a number of ways, especially with those small pockets of strong winds showing on some of the charts now that could bring unexpected surprises where they may not be anticipated. Also, there's scaffolding all over the house opposite ours right up over the roof, which I'm sure is safe, but....

[VillagePlank]

Quick update from Arome1 12z,

Don't forget that like most wind related charts - these are at 10m. So, if you're up on top of the North or South Downs, you can add to these values. Also, max wind velocity is often calculated as the maximum moving average value over a period of time (I'm not sure with Arome, but presumably it's similar to others) so the realised max wind velocity spot values are likely to be higher.

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by VillagePlank

[coldfingers1]

Not looking forward to tonight as being only half a mile from the sea at Bognor it might get a little hairy weatherwise.  Picked all the pears off the tree this morning as the greenhouse is close by and I dont want broken glass flying around!