South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

[Dorsetbred]

On 08/12/2022 at 18:38, Dorsetbred said:

The odds have moved to Cornwall's favour and nobody else...

BUT ECM suggests

No really, (rubs eyes), nah getaway with yah..

So far we've had the whole south coast, then Cornwall, then just Mapantz, Matt and I.

Next stab at it will be...

So the saga continues, but this one is having a real "giraffe"

ROFL..

[DaveL]

Clear and crisp and even (frost) here with a light northerly or calm. One of the hardest hoar froists on my back lawn for a long time.

Minimum last night here was a degree colder at -5.6°C which is close to my record of -6.0 during the 2018 Beast from the East (albeit not feeling anywhere near as cold!***). The only other night colder I can find here was in my pre-VP2 days at -5.7 in January 2009, so 3rd. lowest since 2005. Currently +2.1 and still rising.

***EDIT to add: last night's lowest 'wind chill' was the same as the minimum temp, -5.6, but in the Beast from the East, wind chill got  down to -12.8 at 9 am on March 1st 2018 (!) so today was next to nothing in comparison.

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by DaveL

[Mark Parsons]

1 hour ago, Dorsetbred said:

You might get lucky with the slightly more intense patch currently just over Lyme Regis, heading your way..

We had some very light rain from that one......

[Ben Sainsbury]

Not sure if already posted, but UKV 9z & AROME 6z decent for snow showers, Somerset, Bath into CS England tomorrow morning.

[matt111]

After spending most of yesterday evening yo-yoing it eventually went down to -4.2 later on in the night. Sunny with blue skies again although it was a bit hazier earlier and there’s more cloud to the south as the showers pass though the channel. 

[Mapantz]

Up to 5°C now.

[Nights King]

1 hour ago, Dorsetbred said:

So the saga continues, but this one is having a real "giraffe"

ROFL..

I'm clinging onto my straw... 

each update moves the magic pink blob but where will it land? 

 

[The Enforcer]

Just got to 0.1C after being at 0.0C for over half an hour. No ice day.

And back to 0.0C a minute later. You couldn't make it up.

Edited December 10, 2022 by The Enforcer

[*Stormforce~beka*]

At -7.2c I thought we were nailed on for an ice day. But noooo 1.9c and rising fast now!

[John88B]

2 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Just got to 0.1C after being at 0.0C for over half an hour. No ice day.

And back to 0.0C a minute later. You couldn't make it up.

Pretend it never happened

[lettice]

4.5c here
Quite a bit of cloud passing through today, blue sky a plenty still

Met office has us down for -1 low for early tomorrow. 
The snow and sleet symbols we had late yesterday and early morning for tomorrow have gone.

An oddity, the Beeb site has our area and Fareham with a -6c tomorrow morning, a long way off any other forecast I look at, unless they know something?
The beeb always seem to add a degree or so, but 5 more seems odd.

[MP-R]

Shower clouds close by. Given everything seems primed for snow to fall… I fully expect rain

[The Enforcer]

1 hour ago, John88B said:

Pretend it never happened

Tempting, but it did go back to +0.1C for a little longer. The drop has started though so down to -0.4C already. It ought to be colder tonight as a result of the lower maximum, unless anything dramatically changes.

[John88B]

11 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Tempting, but it did go back to +0.1C for a little longer. The drop has started though so down to -0.4C already. It ought to be colder tonight as a result of the lower maximum, unless anything dramatically changes.

The only thing that may scupper that is more overnight cloud. Around here it's not meant to drop much below freezing because of cloud cover but maximums tomorrow day time are meant to be very low for the same reason.

It would be nice to see something fall out of that aforementioned cloud It's been a very dry cold spell here.

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Shower clouds close by. Given everything seems primed for snow to fall… I fully expect rain

Well it sleeted at least. Almost cold spell territory.

[Liam Burge]

4 hours ago, The Enforcer said:

@Liam Burge did you manage to see any falling/settling snow?

A bit of freezing rain and some very icy surfaces this morning but no snow haha

[The Enforcer]

28 minutes ago, John88B said:

The only thing that may scupper that is more overnight cloud. Around here it's not meant to drop much below freezing because of cloud cover but maximums tomorrow day time are meant to be very low for the same reason.

It would be nice to see something fall out of that aforementioned cloud It's been a very dry cold spell here.

I haven't seen any cloud since first light yesterday and I'm about as far as you can possibly get from any of the shower activity on any of the coastlines.

[The Enforcer]

9 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

A bit of freezing rain and some very icy surfaces this morning but no snow haha

I think that's the most disheartening thing about cold spells, when a chart like this:

appears in model runs it gets 'boomed', but it only results in rain for many people.

[Dorsetbred]

Apologies for posting a channel view today, but it is so dynamic, compared to this morning a different view..

Frost still remains on the pavements and some roofs, as the temperature begins it's downward trend. This morning was winter wonderland effect, who the heck needs snow when it looked liked it did this morning...love it.

[The Enforcer]

-3C by 4pm.

[Dorsetbred]

Just now, The Enforcer said:

-3C by 4pm.

Nice and warm down here 2.2°C.

[Singularity]

Ah the age old question: Do I trust GFS with a mesoscale snowfall event?

Even at only 24 hours lead time the answer is usually ‘with caution’. The feature has appeared on some other model runs too… but some place it further west nearer the eastern Devon border, while others only have a scattering of light showers.

[Mapantz]

Temperature falling quicker than this time yesterday, and also lower. 0.3°C.

Surprising, since it almost made it to 6°C.

[matt111]

Just reached freezing here which is by far the earliest it's done that over the last few days.

Interestingly the frost managed to hang on in the shade again today despite it reaching 5.8°C earlier. 

[Skullzrulerz]

Any chance of snowfall tonight in Cornwall?