South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

[festivalking]

2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

So the UKV model is not covering itself in glory today...!

I'm baffled as to why the model is adjusting in the wrong direction as new observations come in.

Indeed the UKV i think also feeds into the met office app. Its had this has the weather all day but the reality is very different 

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

So the UKV model is not covering itself in glory today...!

I'm baffled as to why the model is adjusting in the wrong direction as new observations come in.

I've just had a cursory glance at the UKV and I agree. Each run should have observations plumbed in from the beginning.

Made it to 2.8°C here.

Building a new PC at the moment, so I don't have time to look at much else. Radar  watching is now the order of the day.

[Wilxy]

51 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Genuine question ; is 0.0c max an ice day? Thank you.

I missed out here by +0.2 gutted would have been 2 ice days in a row!

[jtay]

18 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Jtay, any chance of popping the missus in the fridge and making her chill?

She's frosty enough.

[Mapantz]

53 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Genuine question ; is 0.0c max an ice day? Thank you.

Well, zero is the triple point. You can have a solid, liquid and gas at that temperature. So I would say yes.

[Mark Parsons]

16 minutes ago, Frank Trough said:

definitely noticed a distinct dripping from our roof at lunchtime and most of the frost on the lawn has melted today for the first time since this cold spell began. 

Feeling more pessimistic now (possibly a good thing). 

Slightly warmer air is undercutting at the surface, on low ground expect anything to fall as rain or sleet initially then to snow if you are lucky.....

[Singularity]

2 minutes ago, Mark Parsons said:

Slightly warmer air is undercutting at the surface, on low ground expect anything to fall as rain or sleet initially then to snow if you are lucky.....

Indeed this is true for anywhere south of a line westward from roughly Exeter, due to easterly surface flow along the Channel.

The flow is forecast to gradually back toward NE then NNE during the coming 24 hours, bringing surface temps back down to permit snowfall away from the coasts.

[festivalking]

2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Indeed this is true for anywhere south of a line westward from roughly Exeter, due to easterly surface flow along the Channel.

The flow is forecast to gradually back toward NE then NNE during the coming 24 hours, bringing surface temps back down to permit snowfall away from the coasts.

Yes we've reached the dizzy heights of 3.6c with a DP of 2 with the breeze coming from a ESE direction

[SizzlingHeat]

12Z GFS moves precip further south again, doesnt reach the coast but I wouldnt pay any attention anymore to the models, its down to nowcasting

[festivalking]

2 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

12Z GFS moves precip further south again, doesnt reach the coast but I wouldnt pay any attention anymore to the models, its down to nowcasting

Law of sod will probably be in action then tonight!

[dec10snow]

39 minutes ago, Nights King said:

 

There seems to by some light ppn building up around west country os this just radar noise or something else? 

 

Unfortunately appears to be chiefly anaprop (or evaporating before making it to ground). It’s showing some precipitation moving around, but generally over us over the last hour or so, but nothing seen yet!

[Singularity]

Possible that the models are seeing a slightly faster push from the north than before, offsetting the greater progress of the wave up to this point.

Not saying that's definitely the case though!

[That ECM]

48 minutes ago, That ECM said:

How should I start the letter?

Letter finished.

[Leon1]

Although there was only a dusting in Oxford it has hardly melted over nearly 2 days now which just shows how cold it is! Was 0c maximum today

[Dorsetbred]

8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Letter finished.

[Bristawl Si]

Forget forecast charts for this eve; we're in 'just look out the window' time surely, esp those to my South.

Expecting nowt here.

[SizzlingHeat]

5 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Pointless those automated meto forecasts. They change more times than a whores knickers

[Skullzrulerz]

19 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Possible that the models are seeing a slightly faster push from the north than before, offsetting the greater progress of the wave up to this point.

Not saying that's definitely the case though!

You mean that perhaps it won't reach the south west at all?

Worrying that the GFS backed away from it even reaching the coast.

[festivalking]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

You mean that perhaps it won't reach the south west at all?

Worrying that the GFS backed away from it even reaching the coast.

Local school is not opening till 10 based on the Met office app. At this rate it would be for nothing

[SizzlingHeat]

Radar has the main precip further north than GFS expected it to be, so who knows maybe we will be in for a surprise after all.

[Frank Trough]

29 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Local school is not opening till 10 based on the Met office app. At this rate it would be for nothing

ridiculous. Our school seems to think people can just change their working pattern at short/zero notice to suit their random early finish times, weather closures, parents evenings......

I can remember the good old days in the 80's of crowding around the radio listening to the school closures on radio solent hoping we were included (and that was when there genuinely was snow on the ground)

Edited December 13, 2022 by Frank Trough

[Jayfromcardiff]

17 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Radar has the main precip further north than GFS expected it to be, so who knows maybe we will be in for a surprise after all.

Quite a bit further north too!

[matt111]

Unsurprisingly it stayed cloudy all day, Reached 2.8°C and now down to 0.9°C

[Dorsetbred]

Currently 0.3°C and DP -1.2°C (Wet Bulb :-0.3°C ), who knows , I think Ill forget the hot chocolate flask, sitting on Creech Hill and blow it away.

[chris55]

13 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Quite a bit further north too!

You not seeing any flakes in the wind from this Jay?

Looks like some light ppn is possible, although with the dry south east feed sublimation is prob evaporating it before getting down to the surface?