South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

[SilverWolf]

8 minutes ago, chris55 said:

You not seeing any flakes in the wind from this Jay?

Looks like some light ppn is possible, although with the dry south east feed sublimation is prob evaporating it before getting down to the surface? 

Was wondering the same thing! Been slowly widening and maybe even moving towards Stroud a little… being proper greedy now! 

[Jayfromcardiff]

12 minutes ago, chris55 said:

You not seeing any flakes in the wind from this Jay?

Looks like some light ppn is possible, although with the dry south east feed sublimation is prob evaporating it before getting down to the surface? 

Just checked outside and yep snow flurry at the moment.

[chris55]

6 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Was wondering the same thing! Been slowly widening and maybe even moving towards Stroud a little… being proper greedy now! 

Does look further north than forecast. Might get a dusting

[offerman]

Mass of rain off SW as that comes inland it should be snow. Anyone care to guess how much we could get from this? 

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

Does look further north than forecast. Might get a dusting

Not sure if it'll fizzle out as it hits the cold air though.

[offerman]

10 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Not sure if it'll fizzle out as it hits the cold air though.

Hi Jay,

that’s a good point and I’ve noticed that sometimes when moisture starts to hit cold air why is it that sometimes it does fizzle out ? 
 

For example if we had mild weather and that lot was coming in from the Southwest it was just come right over the region and beyond . 

[chris55]

1 minute ago, offerman said:

Hi Jay,

that’s a good point and I’ve noticed that sometimes when moisture starts to hit cold air why is it that sometimes it does fizzle out ? 
 

For example if we had mild weather and that lot was coming in from the Southwest it was just come right over the region and beyond . 

It’s because cold air tends to be very dry air, warmer air can hold a lot more moisture. 

So if the approaching front is weak it’ll essentially lose convective energy as the cold dry air takes all the energy out of the front. 

[Skullzrulerz]

Light Rain getting inland, does look like some of the heavier precipitation is being waned slightly.

It has to be said it's going quite slow?

[Dorsetbred]

2 hours ago, festivalking said:

Law of sod will probably be in action then tonight!

ROFL

 

[Dorsetbred]

My bino's I've packed, and the lamppost I've turned off.

[Jayfromcardiff]

22 minutes ago, offerman said:

Hi Jay,

that’s a good point and I’ve noticed that sometimes when moisture starts to hit cold air why is it that sometimes it does fizzle out ? 
 

For example if we had mild weather and that lot was coming in from the Southwest it was just come right over the region and beyond . 

It's just because the air is very cold which stops its progress like a brick wall lol.

[MidnightSnow]

The very top band of the PPN looks like the perfect angle for a Bristol Channel streamer  Wishful thinking I'm sure.. but that's the fun part. Surprise snow is the best snow.

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

The very top band of the PPN looks like the perfect angle for a Bristol Channel streamer  Wishful thinking I'm sure.. but that's the fun part. Surprise snow is the best snow.

I was thinking that, we've already had a light snow flurry which is better than nothing. It's definitely further north than forecast that's for sure.

[Liam Burge]

47 minutes ago, offerman said:

Mass of rain off SW as that comes inland it should be snow. Anyone care to guess how much we could get from this? 

It looks like the band of rain is way more north than the models are currently predicting. For example:

 

Current radar:

 

What it is meant to look like:

[Bristawl Si]

The trend may be our friend.

I know it's only my phone app but it's suddenly come up with a "light snow" warning for SG, for later tonight. Hmm...

Edited December 13, 2022 by Bristle Si

[MidnightSnow]

Just now, Bristle Si said:

The trend may be our friend.

I know it's only my phone app but it's suddenly come up with a "light snow" warning for SG, forlater tonight. Hmm...

Same! I keep refreshing the MetO website in hope that they extend the warning area for snow. It's definitely further north than forecast so lets see

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, MidnightSnow said:

Same! I keep refreshing the MetO website in hope that they extend the warning area for snow. It's definitely further north than forecast so lets see

We'd be very unlucky to not see any snow from this, the GFS model was hinting at snow for South Wales and around the Bristol area days ago.

[khodds]

I’m secretly optimistic about everything atm. Band of precipitation is further north for tonight, predicted weekend warm up is getting less and less.. I just have a feeling it’s going to be a very cold winter.

 

currently sat in bed freezing cold and feeling shocking though! 

[Liam Burge]

5 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Same! I keep refreshing the MetO website in hope that they extend the warning area for snow. It's definitely further north than forecast so lets see

It's going to be down to now casting tbh, none of the forecasts are showing snow for my area however I do believe we are going to be seeing snow in around an hour to two hours.

[khodds]

1 minute ago, Liam Burge said:

It's going to be down to now casting tbh, none of the forecasts are showing snow for my area however I do believe we are going to be seeing snow in around an hour to two hours.

Isn’t it meant to go on through the night too? 

[Liam Burge]

Just now, khodds said:

Isn’t it meant to go on through the night too? 

I believe so. Some areas could see some good accumulations from this. Although not everyone will see that, some areas (especially on the hills) could see around 10cm+. I believe most of us in this forum will probably see between 1 and 5cm.

[fromey]

1 minute ago, khodds said:

I’m secretly optimistic about everything atm. Band of precipitation is further north for tonight, predicted weekend warm up is getting less and less.. I just have a feeling it’s going to be a very cold winter.

 

currently sat in bed freezing cold and feeling shocking though! 

not weather related, im a nurse so dont wrap yourself up, take your temp if you can, you could have a high temp, paracetamol and ibuprofen if you can take them, plenty of fluids ( cold fluids) 

[Dorsetbred]

Were are there! -0.1°C and DP -1.7°C (Wet Bulb :-0.7°C )

But my confidence lacks 

[SizzlingHeat]

Definitely further north on the radar than what was expected right now from the GFS. Cant help feeling it will fizzle out and move southeastwards pretty soon though. Still not expecting anything from this but it definitely is further north for sure.

[Isleofwightsnowgal74]

Hi all soo what’s the eta for the Isle of Wight? Lol