South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

[DAVE_ALLEN]

51 minutes ago, mountsbaysnow said:

Can anybody please help me understand what it is we need for it to snow in West Cornwall? 

Snow streamers coming off Pembrokeshire with a strong cold wind between North and North easterly should do the trick. 

[Dorsetbred]

Morning All, no white stuff this morning, by that I mean cloud. The overnight low of -0.4°C at: 06:50 currently -7.5°C, RH68% and a 10mph ENE breeze.

From Above

On Golden sands

Anybody care to paint the M4 in on the below forecast?

[Wynn D Woo]

Nice bit of sunshine this morning after the past few days of cloud and drizzle

[Dorsetbred]

Bright sunshine, dogs just laying out basking in the sunshine. Can we burst the double digit, maybe, with it being 9.9°C at: 14:17...

[matt111]

Sunny for most of the day, a rarity of late. There was a bit of cloud for while earlier this afternoon but it didn't really disrupt the sun much. Reached 9.5°C

[Theresnoway]

Looks like end of next week / next weekend could be our best chance of significant snow, but if the lows are too far north we see rain and too far south it misses us. Just the right latitude and Boom  

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, Theresnoway said:

Looks like end of next week / next weekend could be our best chance of significant snow, but if the lows are too far north we see rain and too far south it misses us. Just the right latitude and Boom  

If we are to believe ECM, then it's picked up the fact the snow dome is still in place until April 1st...

[Dorsetbred]

Nice sunset, clear sky and a great view of the Venus and Jupiter..

 

 

Edited March 2, 2023 by Dorsetbred

[Dorsetbred]

2 hours ago, matt111 said:

Sunny for most of the day, a rarity of late. There was a bit of cloud for while earlier this afternoon but it didn't really disrupt the sun much. Reached 9.5°C

Meanwhile, we managed to hit double digits today with 10.0°C at: 14:24

[festivalking]

Morning thought I'd pop in to see the lie of the land. Up to Wednesday I was hopeful that our region could be in with some snow action next week but the weather gods are hinting that low will traverse the M4 leaving most of us on the wrong side. Still can change but....

Anyhow what will be will be chance of wintery stuff via showers on Tuesday Wednesday. If anything my march monthly temperature average will take a battering. 8.1c last year! 

 

[SteveB]

I think we can put to bed any notion that we will be buried in snow, and have a week long+ cold spell!

Ian F forecast on points west last night didn't look very inspiring.

Unless we see some short term upgrades, then, the usual places with elevation may see some of the white stuff. For everyone else, maybe some wet snow in heavier bouts precipitation.

[Wynn D Woo]

Return of the grey this morning and feeling chilly with it...

 

Not expecting much out of the potential upcoming colder spell to be honest, bar the joys of cold rain...if I was at 150m+ elevation I might be more inspired though...

[Dorsetbred]

Morning All, welcomed with sunshine again this morning after an overnight low of -0.8°C at: 01:47, currently 8.7°C, RH63% with a 8mph light breeze in from the ENE.

[MP-R]

It’s only had all winter to snow properly… more than one opportunity too… so I’ll gladly take rain next weekend given I’ll be on the M5 a lot.

[Dorsetbred]

2 hours ago, SteveB said:

I think we can put to bed any notion that we will be buried in snow, and have a week long+ cold spell!

Ian F forecast on points west last night didn't look very inspiring.

Unless we see some short term upgrades, then, the usual places with elevation may see some of the white stuff. For everyone else, maybe some wet snow in heavier bouts precipitation.

The GEFS shows a general trend for warming towards the next weekend:

I think they are WAY too ambitious on the snowfall measure!

Edited March 3, 2023 by Dorsetbred

[festivalking]

1 hour ago, Dorsetbred said:

The GEFS shows a general trend for warming towards the next weekend:

I think they are WAY too ambitious on the snowfall measure!

a case of two months too late, if this was the first week of January............ 

I know weather apps are not the be or and end of but looking locally next weeks max temperature for my locale are 5-7c. Not exactly snowman weather!

[Dorsetbred]

38 minutes ago, festivalking said:

a case of two months too late, if this was the first week of January............ 

I know weather apps are not the be or and end of but looking locally next weeks max temperature for my locale are 5-7c. Not exactly snowman weather!

Yes I noticed that as well for down here, through most of the week, suggesting the really cold air doesn't make it truly down to the South (i.e. M4 south)

[Mapantz]

Unwell pantz.

Had an air frost this morning. Full sunshine until around midday. Temp reached 10.1°C.

[Nights King]

Needs to be exceptionaly cold to offset suns strengh now .

I can't see much snow settling away from hills in west country next week just too late into the year. 

[Theresnoway]

The UK Met going for 60% chance of the low on Thursday / Friday crossing southern areas, with the cold block putting up more resistance than some runs are showing. 20% further north with rain in the south and 20% further south, with the precipitation in north France.

Still all to play for!

Hopeful for a good set of 12zs

https://youtu.be/aZDJpeH8jFg

Edited March 3, 2023 by Theresnoway
Missed a word!

[festivalking]

15 minutes ago, Theresnoway said:

The UK Met going for 60% chance of the low on Thursday / Friday crossing southern areas, with the cold block putting up more resistance than some runs are showing. 20% further north with rain in the south and 20% further south, with the precipitation in north France.

Still all to play for!

Hopeful for a good set of 12zs

https://youtu.be/aZDJpeH8jFg

Cornwall seemingly out the game and I'd imagine south devon too. Dartmoor and north Devon eastwards though based on that video are in with a chance if the 60% scenario rings true

 

[matt111]

After the sunny day yesterday today has been back to normal of late with a sunny start but quickly clouding over. Reached 8.6°C 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

F-ing cloud.

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

Back in Dorset today and was greeted with a lovely sunny morning before the cloud we left behind in Wiltshire finally caught up with us.

Little change for the next few days after a lovely sunny day yesterday.

Things are getting pretty mad in the MAD thread at the moment as the will we won’t see snow next week saga takes on a further dimension of uncertainty with the models looking to follow ECMs earlier lead. Best keep out of there later if the ECM continues to stick to its guns and shows the Atlantic making more progress than hoped for.

Feel a bit for the mods. 

It’s March, if it snows then great. If not, there’s always next winter.

PS Get well soon Mapantz.

 

[Dorsetbred]

3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Unwell pantz.

Had an air frost this morning. Full sunshine until around midday. Temp reached 10.1°C.

Not good to hear, thought it had been quiet for a few days, take good care of yourself.

You whooped us today as we peaked at a mere 8.9°C at: 10:52, before the cloud layer really took all the sunshine away