South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

[Andy Bown]

14 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Further south on the UKV

What’s the bets tomorrow does the exact opposite of yesterday’s unexpected deluge!? As in an expected deluge fails to materialise.

[Mapantz]

17 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

What’s the bets tomorrow does the exact opposite of yesterday’s unexpected deluge!? As in an expected deluge fails to materialise.

I'm thinking the UKV might be wrong.

That area of rain yesterday was modelled very badly by the UKV. It showed most of it in the channel and in to France, with just some showers across the south. I suspect it doesn't do very well when low pressure creeps up from the south or southwest, whereas the data that the Met Office is using has a better handle on it.

I think the same thing is happening again.. it'll be interesting to see what happens! It'll either be very wet with inch+ totals for much of the south, or just a run-of-the-mill 10mm here & there.

[jtay]

8 hours ago, Andy Bown said:

What’s the bets tomorrow does the exact opposite of yesterday’s unexpected deluge!? As in an expected deluge fails to materialise.

Correct so far Andy, for us at least. Good call.

[jy]

I have my occasional haircuts in the Borough then go over the road to the cafe over the road to get over the shock lol..see Fordingbridge Rec is pushing to get special status water wise a good friend does regular water checks with his kit there and up stream.

[jtay]

10 minutes ago, jy said:

I have my occasional haircuts in the Borough then go over the road to the cafe over the road to get over the shock lol..see Fordingbridge Rec is pushing to get special status water wise a good friend does regular water checks with his kit there and up stream.

I get my annual cut in there too jy.

Heavier rain has now reached here, so I'll get a soaking wandering down to borough in an hour, or so 

[Rich_Clements]

Too far north here its dry....

[Mark Parsons]

At work in Cattistock, Dorset........today is the coldest rainy morning of the winter so far for me! My phone says 6°c.

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

Light rain and 7c here in Westbury. Nothing worse than cold rain.

[Dorsetbred]

Morning All, a wet start and wet morning, I see the MetO yellow was removed, its certainly far from some of their figures, more like a "normal" wet autumn day, with little breeze.

Anyway moving on, the overnight low of 5.5°C at: 00:36, peaked at 7.0°C at: 04:52 and has dropped back to 6.3°C currently, RH95%, with light air movement now from the N as the pressure rises.

From Above the clearer air west of Exeter visible

On Golden sands, fairly calm with slight surf

Edited November 16, 2023 by Dorsetbred

[MP-R]

15 hours ago, Andy Bown said:

What’s the bets tomorrow does the exact opposite of yesterday’s unexpected deluge!? As in an expected deluge fails to materialise.

It’s done exactly that.

Exactly what I’d expect from a snow event had it been cold enough.

[jtay]

Sun is trying to come out now.

Told everyone who'd listen on my walk to ignore the apps and that it should fizzle and clear by lunchtime. 

Tomorrow I shall walk like a God amongst men.

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

2 minutes ago, jtay said:

Sun is trying to come out now.

Told everyone who'd listen on my walk to ignore the apps and that it should fizzle and clear by lunchtime. 

Tomorrow I shall walk like a God amongst men.

Exactly. Sun is out here now and I will be able to go for my afternoon walk after all. This time yesterday it looked like the rain was in for the day and heavy at that. Never got beyond moderately heavy. Not been a great week for the forecast models. Makes you wonder if Saturday will be half as bad as it looked a couple of days ago.

[Dorsetbred]

Under a sullen sky, sits a calm sea....with the sun trying it's best to shine.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Dorsetbred

[*Stormforce~beka*]

45 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Under a sullen sky, sits a calm sea....with the sun trying it's best to shine.

What beach is that sweet?

[Dorsetbred]

5 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

What beach is that sweet?

Hamworthy, looking out over the back of the harbour and over to the Purbecks. So quiet and peaceful, just very muddy at the moment!

Edited November 16, 2023 by Dorsetbred

[Dorsetbred]

Kerching, we've picked up ANOTHER "Yellow warning" for Friday AND Saturday...

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

Edited November 16, 2023 by Dorsetbred

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Looks like I'm out of that one

[matt111]

Wet earlier in the day but dried up this afternoon although the sun never came out. Only reached 8.6°C. by far the coldest day for some time. 

[Rich_Clements]

Wow a glorious morning with little wind

[dr weather]

16 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:

Kerching, we've picked up ANOTHER "Yellow warning" for Friday AND Saturday...

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

 

In Portishead we barely got any rain off of the last yellow warning this week, despite being in the catchment area.

[Dorsetbred]

Morning All, what a great autumn morning, cool start, clear skies, no breeze. The overnight low of 1.3°C at: 07:16 has eased up to 7.7°C, RH97% and light air movement from the SSW.

From Above, clear on  this side of the area, but gets in to hazy and then cloudier conditions the further west you go, with the next area of rain already on the radar.

On Golden sands, even looks summery with 3 bathers and a couple of folks sat on the beach

Meanwhile the bigger picture shows the next inbound rain-maker

 

[mike5900]

From yesterday just before sunset  

[Rich_Clements]

On 16/11/2023 at 11:43, Dorsetbred said:

Morning All, a wet start and wet morning, I see the MetO yellow was removed, its certainly far from some of their figures, more like a "normal" wet autumn day, with little breeze.

Anyway moving on, the overnight low of 5.5°C at: 00:36, peaked at 7.0°C at: 04:52 and has dropped back to 6.3°C currently, RH95%, with light air movement now from the N as the pressure rises.

From Above the clearer air west of Exeter visible

On Golden sands, fairly calm with slight surf

Rather them than me bathing in the sea this morning brrrr

[Dorsetbred]

6 minutes ago, Rich_Clements said:

Rather them than me bathing in the sea this morning brrrr

Bournemouth Sea Temperature(Today) 17th Nov 2023 - 13.1°C / 55.5°F

The water will feel cool (fresh). Probably too cold for all but seasoned swimmers. We'd recommend a 4mm or 5mm wetsuit if you want to stay in the water.

Interesting to note is that the sea temperature has been running up to 1°C+  above mean for quite a few months, it's now below the mean, and 0.5°C above the min temp, see below:

Average November sea temperatures

Max: 15.9°C / 60.6°F

Avg: 14.3°C / 57.7°F

Min: 12.7°C / 54.9°F

Edited November 17, 2023 by Dorsetbred

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Pretty walk home from school this morning...