Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[IDO]

Not a shocker that the UKMO was wrong at D6 and did its slow climb down. It is best avoided when the triggers are upstream. 

Looking at the D16 GFS mean:

This is a deja vu D16 mean chart for sometime, with a fixed blocked macro NH. Hard to get any potential from such a chart and no reason to question it as this pattern has been ongoing. I suppose we can just hope the HP days outweigh the windier more zonal periods. London temps looking average as a whole:

The Jan CET is about 1.2c above average so that sums it up, with zero snow for me. Def a poor winter for my locale even with the snowless ones of recent years. Just hoping this is not a precursor for a cool damp Spring.

[Frosty.]

The GEM 0z shows occasional bouts of cold zonality, cold enough for snow to modest levels, especially further north, the other models show colder incursions too so at least compared to much of January which was complete dross, the next week or two could produce some wintery surprises in a very fluid pattern….hey, it’s Monday morning..I’m trying!  

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,looking at the charts this morning mild midweek spell then a cold northwesterly from an active low pressure heading to our northeast some snow showers in the north and feeling chilly in the south.Possibly a few days of rather cold weather before Azores high takes over once again.

 

[Paul]

Locking this one now, fresh thread here:

 

Edited January 31, 2022 by Paul