Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Weather-history]

Look how dry  the GFS 0z op is south of the Border and this is out to mid February.  

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

Looks like the northwesterly toppler has kinda gone.

Fine with me, but bad for Buxton and Scottish Hills

18Z was absolute snowfest for northern areas above 300m

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Looks like UKMO out on its own going by the picture below. American models much more zonal flow with prospect of dreaded Euro High developing .

C

Have no fear guys, the UKMO’s more pronounced Polar/Arctic Maritime outlook has support…

From the NAVGEM!

 

(But I think a lot of you are doing the right thing not getting out the big pile of straws from the cupboard) 

[PiscesStar]

36 minutes ago, IDO said:

There has been little hope with the tPV stationed to our NW, the winter killer for the UK and it is in situ for D1-D16 on the GEFS. That means zero chances for HLB'ing to the NW/N/NE. With the Pacific and Siberian highs blocking the movement of that tPV we seem to have to rely on the tPV diving SE over the UK for some PM air. The GEFS mean has never been onboard with the op runs suggesting that, and it is a flat and zonal mean through the run; d8-d16:

This takes us to mid-Feb with the realisation that getting to cold blocking from here in a blocked recurring pattern is a tough ask. As said before, we now await the tPV to weaken for some Spring cold, for March and April, so for the south pretty low confidence in the rest of this winter for that elusive snow.

 

In other words let's blame America for once again being greedy that. Massive lobe parked over their fat asses on the latest gfs run. It's getting o be a joke now... 

[offerman]

41 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

You know it's bad when even NWesterlies get downgraded to basically nothing. Story of our winter on this mornings charts with that god damned high pressure taking control once more.

Great post NewErea. This is exactly my sentiment as well. You hit the nail on the head as this year we have had an exceptionally strong high pressure. 
 

it’s not even as if there haven’t been any attempts at some colder incursions.There have been so many potential Northerly outbreaks where it is very cold out just north of Scotland with a nice low pressure over Scandinavia and high-pressure over Greenland. however, as soon as that cold  looked like it could flood south the high pressure remained steadfast either over us or just to our south west or west. Much of the time the high pressures orientation was not of the correct manor that we would have prefered for cold incursions. On rare occasions when its orientation slightly favoured pulling in the cold as soon as the cold started to make its way south The high would exert a more horizontal topology thus diluting and phasing  out of any cold possibilities

it really has been an exceptional stubborn winter for this high-pressure which has ruined any chances of cold which has quite often been so  near the UK. 
 

over the years I remember when we would have a fairly stagnant high-pressure quite often this would then appear to be sucked or retrograde back into another high-pressure   coming off Canada’s eastern seaboard and they would appear to join up forcing a really decent northerly blast over the UK. 
 

what is notably different this time around is it seems to be an individual massive high-pressure cell that has just consistently sat meandering around either over the UK or just to our west or south west. 
 

exceptional times that we appear to be experiencing which don’t favour much in the way of cold imho. 
 

it’s almost as if we can forget what’s going on in other parts of the world weatherwise as we have such a strong weather phenomena locally with the high-pressure that seems to avert and divert any talk of weather events further afield potentially affecting our neck of the woods. 
 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Models struggling with a pattern change. As far as I'm concerned we need to bin today's 0zs and probably 12z as well. Tbh ,It's a shame that on occasions like this we have model runs every day . Just give it a couple of days and you will see any attempt of riding from the south or south west be finally put away ! Anyway is an example of how computer models deal with our vast, complicated and never predictable weather

[northwestsnow]

UKMO the pick this morning in the reliable ish timeframe ..

EC looks more GFS at 144 so for now will assume ukmo is wrong. 

Really hard going this years chase- for me mid Dec to Mid Feb is my preferred window ,and it's closing fast now..

We all have our preferences I guess, the stronger sun diminishes my interest after mid Feb so its closing in on  last chance saloon for myself ...

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,a mixed bunch of idea’s in the chart’s this morning pattern change always bring some differences best of the bunch for us cold lover’s UKMO.Still change’s likely but some cold northwest winds from lows to the northeast/east will bring snow showers for some,milder spells possible in the south from Azores high that seems reluctant to return home.

[Penrith Snow]

I read recently a peer reviewed paper that said due to GW the PV is increasingly being displaced towards North America and that the US will endure more severe winters in the future as a result. 

I thought at the time the authors have just extrapolated what has happened in recent years but we can now add 2022 to the list as well.

If this proves correct it bodes badly for UK winters as this PV displacement over the US sector is mirrored by an extension of the Azores High North East wards, again this has been played out in 2022.

Let's hope this is a temporary phenomenon as such a set up makes Northern blocking all but impossible. 

Andy

[Nick B]

It's hard to think of any extended period (i.e. more than a week or two) over the last 13 years or so when the outer reaches, days 8-10-16, would offer so much and then the weather would continue to deliver so little.

There comes a timeframe (and it changes depending on pattern changes etc.) where there should be a loss of confidence in the output (e.g. beyond x days is 'FI'). That's what I find the ensembles useful for. Not to pick out individual ones which may be pleasing to the eye, rather to see how the det run matches the control, where it sits within the ensembles, whether there are trends of clusters appearing, and importantly, where the divergence in those ensembles becomes more marked.

It's been clear that for some reason, that timeframe this winter has been closer to day 1 than some posters on here have perhaps expected or been used to. Hence the dashed expectations. It might be worthwhile, if people really wish to follow the models without studying the upstream and background drivers, to

1. First, wait until the ensemble runs are there, then check them to see where that point of divergence starts occurring (i.e. where do the lines start really scattering into spaghetti);

2. Then look for trends of clusters in the last three days' output of the same time for the same model, i.e. ECM 0z with 0z from the past two days... where do the runs really start disagreeing with each other and two or three days after that date are there clusters appearing? GFS 12z with GFS 12z from the last couple of days too, same exercise. That may possibly show which new trends are gaining ground;

3. Acknowledge that, beyond two or three days after that scatter point, the usefulness is watered down even more, so that what appears thereafter from Fantasy Island to what could be a new acronym, PD (Pipe Dream)! While noticing there may be attractive scenarios flaunting themselves, don't give them the trust they don't currently deserve (unless you enjoy mental self-flagellation, in which case, have at it!).

4. Absolutely use the method which John Holmes suggests (as well as mushyman too, now) - thank you both! - with the 6-10 and 8-14 charts (understand how they work first)! It really does give a reasonable idea of the direction in which things are probably travelling, and can be used to temper expectations! Bear in mind, if they are changing (i.e. a pattern change is being forecast), then hold back those expectations until they start settling down again.

The models have often appeared to want to deliver at ca. 10 days so much in this region this winter, which for those chasing cold has been doubly hard, when the end result of the weather has proved them wrong at that range. Clearly, there is something about the background factors which the models are not equipped to deal with. That's absolutely not the fault of the people coding the modelling, if we are indeed in an era where e.g. the Hadley cell is expanded and its influence is causing the Euro high to be more of a feature than has been the case in the past. It's an area which is likely the subject of ongoing research by climate scientists and the findings will likely support tweaks to the modelling itself to deal with that situation.

Who knows whether that is a new normal or just part of the current dance of climate oscillations or indeed a new climatic regime? There's a growing body of literature pointing in that direction, it seems. I'm left with the impression that the current period of the last decade or so hasn't seen as many long midwinter severe cold and snowy weather spells such as I experienced in the 70's - early 90's in the UK. That absolutely does not preclude the chance of a winter with such a spell again at some point, but it may mean our chances are growing slimmer over time. Not much fun to acknowledge for those of us who may still enjoy seeing powdery snow transforming the outside world into a winter wonderland occasionally.

If it's any consolation, those of us living in continental NW Europe have seen even less than those of you in the UK and Ireland this winter. It's not over, but it won't be long before I start really looking forward to warm spring sunshine, the smell of blossom, spring birdsong and the lighter colour of early spring leaves budding on the trees.

Edited January 29, 2022 by Nick B
grammar, a few improvements etc.

[blizzard81]

20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO the pick this morning in the reliable ish timeframe ..

EC looks more GFS at 144 so for now will assume ukmo is wrong. 

Really hard going this years chase- for me mid Dec to Mid Feb is my preferred window ,and it's closing fast now..

We all have our preferences I guess, the stronger sun diminishes my interest after mid Feb so its closing in on  last chance saloon for myself ...

I agree. Its been really tough going this winter with the models. All have been guilty of dangling carrots only for much vaunted potential cold spells to vanish before our eyes. With all this in mind, we just know the ukmo will backtrack on the 12z run. 

[minus10]

35 minutes ago, Nick B said:

It's hard to think of any extended period (i.e. more than a week or two) over the last 13 years or so when the outer reaches, days 8-10-16, would offer so much and then the weather would continue to deliver so little.

There comes a timeframe (and it changes depending on pattern changes etc.) where there should be a loss of confidence in the output (e.g. beyond x days is 'FI'). That's what I find the ensembles useful for. Not to pick out individual ones which may be pleasing to the eye, rather to see how the det run matches the control, where it sits within the ensembles, whether there are trends of clusters appearing, and importantly, where the divergence in those ensembles becomes more marked.

It's been clear that for some reason, that timeframe this winter has been closer to day 1 than some posters on here have perhaps expected or been used to. Hence the dashed expectations. It might be worthwhile, if people really wish to follow the models without studying the upstream and background drivers, to

1. first look at the ensembles and see where that point of divergence starts occurring (i.e. where do the lines start really scattering into spaghetti);

2. Then look for trends of clusters in the last three days' output of the same time for the same model, i.e. ECM 0z with 0z from the past two days... where do the runs really start disagreeing with each other and two or three days after that date are there clusters appearing? GFS 12z with GFS 12z from the last couple of days too, same exercise. That may possibly show which new trends are gaining ground;

3. Acknowledge that, beyond two or three days after that scatter point, the usefulness is watered down even more, so that what appears thereafter from Fantasy Island to what could be a new acronym, PD (Pipe Dream)! While noticing there may be attractive scenarios flaunting themselves, don't give them the trust they don't currently deserve (unless you enjoy mental self-flagellation, in which case, have at it!).

4. Absolutely use the method which John Holmes continues to espouse (as well as mushyman too, now) - thank you both with the 6-10 and 8-14 charts (understand how they work first)! It really does give a reasonable idea of the direction in which things are probably travelling, and can be used to temper expectations! Bear in mind, if they are changing (i.e. a pattern change is being forecast), then hold back those expectations until they start settling down again.

The models have often appeared to want to deliver at ca. 10 days so much in this region this winter, which for those chasing cold has been doubly hard, when the end result of the weather has proved them wrong at that range. Clearly, there is something about the background factors which the models are not equipped to deal with. That's absolutely not the fault of the people coding the modelling, if we are indeed in an era where e.g. the Hadley cell is expanded and its influence is causing the Euro high to be more of a feature than has been the case in the past. It's an area which is likely the subject of ongoing research by climate scientists and the findings will likely support tweaks to the modelling itself to deal with that situation.

Who knows whether that is a new normal or just part of the current dance of climate shifts, driven by AMO, PDO etc.?  Undeniable is the fact that the current period of the last decade or so hasn't seen long midwinter severe cold and snowy weather spells such as I experienced in the 70's - early 90's in the UK. That absolutely does not preclude the chance of a winter with such a spell again at some point, but it may mean our chances are growing slimmer over time. Not much fun to acknowledge for those of us who may still enjoy seeing powdery snow transforming the outside world into a winter wonderland occasionally.

If it's any consolation, those of us living in continental NW Europe have seen even less than those of you in the UK and Ireland this winter. It's not over, but it won't be long before I start really looking forward to warm spring sunshine, the smell of blossom, spring birdsong and the lighter colour of early spring leaves budding on the trees.

Very good post. Yes it does seem a definate patten of downgrading the mid to long term forecast to marry up with the seasonals and the anomaly charts where cold is concerned. Hence our constant disappointment. I often wonder how much of the various other factors and drivers such as Hadley cell are programmed into the deterministic / ensemble spreads.

I also noticed that often the op is either at the top or the bottom of the spreads. The gfs oz is a case in point

Think it was the 12z from yesterday where it was mainly at the bottom. So a lot of uncertainty which trends overtime to less extreme solutions.

Being human its hard to not have a reaction when a cold potentially snowy run is shown, but perhaps we should lower our expectations i think in line with what the long term trends are telling us and work within that basis. Interesting that even in the US there has been some 'toy throwing' about this  noreaster on the forums as some models have been downgrading snow amounts to only 8 inches from say 16 . ...if only eh..

 

Edited January 29, 2022 by minus10

[Notty]

56 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

I read recently a peer reviewed paper that said due to GW the PV is increasingly being displaced towards North America and that the US will endure more severe winters in the future as a result. 

I thought at the time the authors have just extrapolated what has happened in recent years but we can now add 2022 to the list as well.

If this proves correct it bodes badly for UK winters as this PV displacement over the US sector is mirrored by an extension of the Azores High North East wards, again this has been played out in 2022.

Let's hope this is a temporary phenomenon as such a set up makes Northern blocking all but impossible. 

Andy

Do you have a link please?

[mb018538]

The GFS was a bit of an outlier with pressure this morning...though it should be noted that by day 10 all of the ECM clusters have high pressure very close to or over the UK once more:



I expected high pressure to possibly re-emerge towards the last 10-14 days of February, would be very surprised if it moves in so quickly again!

[Bill4321]

1 hour ago, Nick B said:

It's hard to think of any extended period (i.e. more than a week or two) over the last 13 years or so when the outer reaches, days 8-10-16, would offer so much and then the weather would continue to deliver so little.

There comes a timeframe (and it changes depending on pattern changes etc.) where there should be a loss of confidence in the output (e.g. beyond x days is 'FI'). That's what I find the ensembles useful for. Not to pick out individual ones which may be pleasing to the eye, rather to see how the det run matches the control, where it sits within the ensembles, whether there are trends of clusters appearing, and importantly, where the divergence in those ensembles becomes more marked.

It's been clear that for some reason, that timeframe this winter has been closer to day 1 than some posters on here have perhaps expected or been used to. Hence the dashed expectations. It might be worthwhile, if people really wish to follow the models without studying the upstream and background drivers, to

1. First, wait until the ensemble runs are there, then check them to see where that point of divergence starts occurring (i.e. where do the lines start really scattering into spaghetti);

2. Then look for trends of clusters in the last three days' output of the same time for the same model, i.e. ECM 0z with 0z from the past two days... where do the runs really start disagreeing with each other and two or three days after that date are there clusters appearing? GFS 12z with GFS 12z from the last couple of days too, same exercise. That may possibly show which new trends are gaining ground;

3. Acknowledge that, beyond two or three days after that scatter point, the usefulness is watered down even more, so that what appears thereafter from Fantasy Island to what could be a new acronym, PD (Pipe Dream)! While noticing there may be attractive scenarios flaunting themselves, don't give them the trust they don't currently deserve (unless you enjoy mental self-flagellation, in which case, have at it!).

4. Absolutely use the method which John Holmes suggests (as well as mushyman too, now) - thank you both! - with the 6-10 and 8-14 charts (understand how they work first)! It really does give a reasonable idea of the direction in which things are probably travelling, and can be used to temper expectations! Bear in mind, if they are changing (i.e. a pattern change is being forecast), then hold back those expectations until they start settling down again.

The models have often appeared to want to deliver at ca. 10 days so much in this region this winter, which for those chasing cold has been doubly hard, when the end result of the weather has proved them wrong at that range. Clearly, there is something about the background factors which the models are not equipped to deal with. That's absolutely not the fault of the people coding the modelling, if we are indeed in an era where e.g. the Hadley cell is expanded and its influence is causing the Euro high to be more of a feature than has been the case in the past. It's an area which is likely the subject of ongoing research by climate scientists and the findings will likely support tweaks to the modelling itself to deal with that situation.

Who knows whether that is a new normal or just part of the current dance of climate oscillations or indeed a new climatic regime? There's a growing body of literature pointing in that direction, it seems. I'm left with the impression that the current period of the last decade or so hasn't seen as many long midwinter severe cold and snowy weather spells such as I experienced in the 70's - early 90's in the UK. That absolutely does not preclude the chance of a winter with such a spell again at some point, but it may mean our chances are growing slimmer over time. Not much fun to acknowledge for those of us who may still enjoy seeing powdery snow transforming the outside world into a winter wonderland occasionally.

If it's any consolation, those of us living in continental NW Europe have seen even less than those of you in the UK and Ireland this winter. It's not over, but it won't be long before I start really looking forward to warm spring sunshine, the smell of blossom, spring birdsong and the lighter colour of early spring leaves budding on the trees.

In here recently there has been some excellent posts for people like me who are just starting to look at weather models. This is one of them. Thank you @Nick B

[damianslaw]

A broadly westerly airstream for the days ahead, slightly north of west for the next 2 days, then slightly south of west as the azores high once again flexes its influence. Most unsettled conditions further north, with strong winds/gales and heavy bursts of rain at times, some snow on highest ground, indeed tomorrow could bring significant snow to Highland Scotland.

The models continue to show variance run to run, azores high vs pressure from the PV spilling out cold air out of Canadian Arctic. 

The robustness of the azores high against such a strong PV is very notable this year, will be interesting once Feb is over to note what were the overriding influences on this year's winter weather. I think the strength of the PV is scuppering what could have turned out to be a notably colder more wintry weather as the forcing appears to be to want to send heights north, but the PV keeps stopping this from happening. Its made for an intriuging winter.

[sunnijim]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

I read recently a peer reviewed paper that said due to GW the PV is increasingly being displaced towards North America and that the US will endure more severe winters in the future as a result. 

I thought at the time the authors have just extrapolated what has happened in recent years but we can now add 2022 to the list as well.

If this proves correct it bodes badly for UK winters as this PV displacement over the US sector is mirrored by an extension of the Azores High North East wards, again this has been played out in 2022.

Let's hope this is a temporary phenomenon as such a set up makes Northern blocking all but impossible. 

Andy

My first post I'm the MOD discussion this winter says it all really.

Felt I wanted to jump in on some of these posts this morning as I have been troubled by the patterns that seem prevalent over the UK in recent years,it seems quite a few here share the view.

The displaced Azores High.

A recurring pattern not just this winter but on many occasions since 2011 from my own observations.

The strength of the High too has been somthing to behold and am left wondering the route cause? Global warming,Ice Melt, a Gulf stream weakening? 

I'm lurching about with no real clue,but all I do know is we are really lacking any regular extremes in our Winter patterns certainly in the Southern half of the UK.

Yes,there is the occasional named storm and prolonged rainfall event,but nothing to compare with the more regular interest In terms of anything extreme in the 70s,80s,and 90s,even the first 10 years of this Century.

The last event of note was the beast from the East in 2018.

Either side of this very little.

I have kept weather records since 1983 so do have 'history' to refer to.

Don't get me started on the total lack of summer thunderstorms too!

 

 

[jamesthemonkeh]

Looking a little further ahead, if you don't mind, the CFSv2 has consistently been pointing to a strong high pressure anomoly over Europe and extending through the UK for March - and has been doing so for a couple of months now.

I'd suggest this gives hope for a warmer and sunnier than normal March, though that will depend on the exact positioning of high pressure.

I rarely post as what I see in the models has normally been noted on this forum by time I get around to reading, so just a quick note of thanks to those that post in here - I learn plenty, and kind of enjoy the emotional roller-coasters when they occur, such as December.

[alexisj9]

23 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

My first post I'm the MOD discussion this winter says it all really.

Felt I wanted to jump in on some of these posts this morning as I have been troubled by the patterns that seem prevalent over the UK in recent years,it seems quite a few here share the view.

The displaced Azores High.

A recurring pattern not just this winter but on many occasions since 2011 from my own observations.

The strength of the High too has been somthing to behold and am left wondering the route cause? Global warming,Ice Melt, a Gulf stream weakening? 

I'm lurching about with no real clue,but all I do know is we are really lacking any regular extremes in our Winter patterns certainly in the Southern half of the UK.

Yes,there is the occasional named storm and prolonged rainfall event,but nothing to compare with the more regular interest In terms of anything extreme in the 70s,80s,and 90s,even the first 10 years of this Century.

The last event of note was the beast from the East in 2018.

Either side of this very little.

I have kept weather records since 1983 so do have 'history' to refer to.

Don't get me started on the total lack of summer thunderstorms too!

 

 

So not earlier this year then? I though the late winter snow was quite good, but may be too localised perhaps. 

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Very good post. Yes it does seem a definate patten of downgrading the mid to long term forecast to marry up with the seasonals and the anomaly charts where cold is concerned. Hence our constant disappointment. I often wonder how much of the various other factors and drivers such as Hadley cell are programmed into the deterministic / ensemble spreads.

I also noticed that often the op is either at the top or the bottom of the spreads. The gfs oz is a case in point

Think it was the 12z from yesterday where it was mainly at the bottom. So a lot of uncertainty which trends overtime to less extreme solutions.

Being human its hard to not have a reaction when a cold potentially snowy run is shown, but perhaps we should lower our expectations i think in line with what the long term trends are telling us and work within that basis. Interesting that even in the US there has been some 'toy throwing' about this  noreaster on the forums as some models have been downgrading snow amounts to only 8 inches from say 16 . ...if only eh..

 

Really good post this.

I think our esteemed @nick sussex often referenced the tendency of NWP products to essentially push the jet further North as we tick closer to T0 in these North Westerly sets up showing at say ,day 7,8,9,10..

I've noticed it too ,we will see uppers proggrd at -7/-8 at even 4 or 5 days out ,yet that little edge North of the pattern often sees uppers of -5/-6 when we reach T0..

It might not sound a lot , but it can make all the difference,esp if the flow is off the Atlantic.

The Easterly is king for my location , sadly missing in action again this winter.

[Ali1977]

UKMO again very diff to the GFS at 144, better for coldies therefore likely wrong

[Crackerjack]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO again very diff to the GFS at 144, better for coldies therefore likely wrong

That looks good for me I’m guessing @Ali1977 I’m up in Inverness Monday 7th - 11th Feb for my snow fix and I’m getting worried even Cairngorms at this rate would be bare  

Any NW like that would have bite this year we just have to get it into the reliable time frame. That PV looks really angry this year. 

[Ali1977]

Day 10 on the GFS still pretty good though, better than the 06z anyway 

[minus10]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 10 on the GFS still pretty good though, better than the 06z anyway 

I am not walking up that garden path again (he says) , except for work purposes. Hell, why am i even looking...

[Penrith Snow]

If this winter had been made up of  ECM and GFS 10 day charts it would have been fantastic!  

Andy