Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[mb018538]

Morning all - I'll post a few charts up from the latest ECM update last night to give a snapshot of what the ECM model is predicting over the next 3 weeks...

Firstly the 500mb plots for the next 3 weeks:



No real change here. A very +NAO dominated pattern, with low heights in the Iceland/Greenland area, with the Azores high slightly shifted north and keeping the main storm track away from the UK. A slight W/NW bias so some PM shots mixed in with usual westerly based weather.

Regime plot is a sea of blue below....which shows the +NAO pattern that is expected to dominate.



MJO signal is muted at best at the moment. Weak phase 3 incoming, which on the RMM analysis plots doesn't translate to settled for the UK:



All in all - not a great update if cold weather is what you are after.

[That ECM]

10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looks like the pattern change coming up next week, but nothing spectacular wintry wise considering the time of the year, some good hill snow events on a NWly, but for lowland areas away from the north it's the return of cold wind and rain. Cold has also been removed from Europe, it looks like North America as usual stealing all the cold.

Then looking further on the gefs suggesting that high pressure will build again. All fi but  that looks favourite at the moment.

Edited January 28, 2022 by That ECM

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,All charts firming up on low pressure to take over in 7 days mostly cold polar maritime air being supplied by low pressure systems from our east/northeast.snow showers are possible in places at low levels with this unsettled period.No mild wet southwesterly winds on offer at present for February lots to keep interest going for cold lover’s.

[northwestsnow]

6z serving up a colder PM flow ...

probably decent for hills in  the NW...

[Kentspur]

Some GFS 6z snowfall charts- Clear evidence of the North and West faring best in a predominantly PM flow- Nothing for us in the SE region unfortunately from that set up.

I'm off to East Anglia Valentines week I wonder what will be in store for then? Sometimes Norfolk can get in on the act with a more north of west plunge

Edited January 28, 2022 by Kentspur

[damianslaw]

GFS showing repeated blasts of polar maritime air and potent in terms of depth of cold given the cold source. However no sufficient ridge development to pull in a longer lasting arctic airstream. Copious snow for high ground in the north and lower levels perhaps for a time at least. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

58 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6z serving up a colder PM flow ...

probably decent for hills in  the NW...

Could definitely get some quite good falls from that. Probably also at least a wintry mix of showers everywhere else in that chilly airmass. While maybe not the best setup for South-Eastern areas, wouldn’t totally rule out the odd wintry shower or something for those parts. 

Plus, for a spot of additional amusement, a possible spell of sleet and snow for some Western, Central, Southern and Eastern areas of the UK a day after (next Saturday into Sunday) - that 06Z run ordering a juicy beef burger of a developing Low within the Polar Maritime flow tracking South-East into the Channel/France from the North-West of Ireland.

 

[Ali1977]

Someone said P1 always verifies  - the ridge at day 8 gets a little more traction - our equiv of the upcoming Boston storm .

To be fair it’s one of the best U.K. snow storms I’ve ever seen modelled, it’s just keeps on snowing and snowing in a blizzard  - if only

Edited January 28, 2022 by Ali1977

[NewEra21]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Someone said P1 always verifies  - the ridge at day 8 gets a little more traction - our equiv of the Boston storm 

One day, one of these charts will finally come off for us. One day!

[minus10]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Someone said P1 always verifies  - the ridge at day 8 gets a little more traction - our equiv of the upcoming Boston storm 

Wow........if only...er....

[NewEra21]

37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolutely.

I'm as pig sick as the next coldie but one must fight the good fight

 

 

The one positive is that with things looking like becoming more mobile, behind lows there's always the chance of a ridge getting a hold and setting up something much colder and a little more prolonged than initially modeled.

Admittedly it looks unlikely with such a strong vortex to our NW, but at least we're in with more chances now. Rather than just a high sitting over us unable to move anywhere for weeks on end.

[frosty ground]

noticed the same outcome now with lots of kinks upstream embedded in cold uppers might not be snow but should activate a few heavy blustery winters showers 

[Tim Bland]

Could be worse ️

Edited January 28, 2022 by Tim Bland

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs 12z thick snow for when the kids break up feb 11th

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The models are now homing in nicely on the stormy end of Jan, early Feb period.  This has come bang on timing. I still think this little zipper LP could produce sone surprises like Storm Arwen did.
 

Early Feb if UKMO is right will see widespread gales and severe gales for many.

 

Looking beyond and GFS toying with a colder N’ly outcome (this I believe we’ll get) …I think, like I have done since Dec, that we’d get the storm period and pattern change (here it comes)….and I’m very much encouraged that the NE/E’ly flow cold spell I’ve ‘anticipated’ will come latter half/third Feb.

Optimistic Coldie

 

BFTP

 

Edited January 28, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[minus10]

14 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The models are now homing in nicely on the stormy end of Jan, early Feb period.  This has come bang on timing. I still think this little zipper LP could produce sone surprises like Storm Arwen did.  Early Feb if UKMO is right will see widespread gales and severe gales for many.

 

Looking beyond and GFS toying with a colder N’ly outcome (this I believe we’ll get) …I think, like I have done since Dec, that we’d get the storm period and pattern change (here it comes)….and I’m very much encouraged that the NE/E’ly flow cold spell I’ve ‘anticipated’ will come latter half/third Feb.

Optimistic Coldie

 

BFTP

 

Yes the gfs12z quite a cold run really with the pm flow from about the 4th feb to 12th ( with a mild blip). Certainly changeable if not very unsettled

Lets just hope its not a cold outlier. Tbf it has been showing this type of patten for a while now but ....as ever ...more runs ....other models....winter is occuring west and east of us in next few days...talk about wetting the appetite ...we just need the meal ...

Edited January 28, 2022 by minus10

[Ali1977]

Certainly good for the north the latest GFS, the GEFS have some interest to our East at day 9 (attached) but we know that’ll disappear. Let’s hope the PM air brings surprises even in the south 

[Staffmoorlands]

Looks like the complete opposite for February as we see more unsettled weather across the UK. The south will be milder than recent weeks but the north will be cooler with snow for many. Here is the UKMO 168

Edited January 28, 2022 by Staffmoorlands

[TSNWK]

41 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Looks like the complete opposite for February as we see more unsettled weather across the UK. The south will be milder than recent weeks but the north will be cooler with snow for many. Here is the UKMO 168

The south will not be milder than yesterday,today and tomorrow with that chart

[northwestsnow]

EC does bring in a brief NWly ,uppers -7 might be enough for some snow showers locally..

Edit -8 uppers in NW Scotland ..

 

Edited January 28, 2022 by northwestsnow

[damianslaw]

Models continue to show a much more unsettled spell ahead. More so further north with a mix of strong winds even gales at times, rain, wintry precipitation higher ground and possible increasingly lower levels as the week ahead wears on with a more concerted push of cold air from the NW. 

Further south still fairly settled but some rain and wind at times.

Feeling chilly for all in the cold wind.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

36 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

The south will not be milder than yesterday,today and tomorrow with that chart

Correct

 BFTP

[northwestsnow]

Better.

[Norrance]

The last few posts belong in general chat. Back to the models please!

[northwestsnow]

EC det provides snow cover at times Midlands North ..

Day 10 looks ripe for another PM attack.

Certainly higher ground westward facing hills could do OK ...