Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[damianslaw]

UKMO holding out against GFS/ECM, it did this before christmas but eventually capitulated to ECM and GFS. This time around, its the GFS which is making less of any polar maritime flow... and a much flatter pattern.. long term it shows a route to cold via northern blocking, but a long time in the future and don't expect this to be shown in future runs, but you never know..

ECM showing a shorlived polar maritime airflow for Friday quickly cut off for the weekend coming, strong westerly flow.

Winter 2021-22 turning into the winter when the record played titled PV vs Azores high stand off became stuck and spun round and round on itself.. 

 

Edited January 30, 2022 by damianslaw

[IDO]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Its amazing how ukmo is sticking to its guns. Could be one of its finest hours if correct. One of its most embarrassing ones if not. 

I think I saw on Twitter that ECM were wrong in the US and recently moved inline with GFS, and I suspect that is where UKMO is also struggling, and it is usually last to correct in such circumstances. 

In any case, the UKMO does not portend to anything other than a brief mini-ridge in the westerly flow and its uppers are only -4c at D6 (likely to be overdone at this range), so not really anything to change the overall pattern.

The latest D12 GFS highlights the fruitless nature of the NH profile for the UK:

Consistent modelling of the tPV to our NW and the Pacific, Arctic and Siberian highs facilitating this groundhog day of the UK under a displaced Azores high -v- zonal flow circulating to our north. So this seems the percentage call going forward unless we get some consistent signal to the contrary (that is, ignore rogue op runs like the 0Z)?

[TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN]

As everyone has said, its like a record that keeps on spinning round and round with no way of getting off the turntable...surely this month especially for the south must go down as one of the driest on record?

 

[TwisterGirl81]

18 minutes ago, TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN said:

As everyone has said, its like a record that keeps on spinning round and round with no way of getting off the turntable...surely this month especially for the south must go down as one of the driest on record?

 

It's been several weeks of no substantial rain in most parts of the south not just December, would have been nice if most of the mouth had not been cloudy

[damianslaw]

31 minutes ago, IDO said:

I think I saw on Twitter that ECM were wrong in the US and recently moved inline with GFS, and I suspect that is where UKMO is also struggling, and it is usually last to correct in such circumstances. 

In any case, the UKMO does not portend to anything other than a brief mini-ridge in the westerly flow and its uppers are only -4c at D6 (likely to be overdone at this range), so not really anything to change the overall pattern.

The latest D12 GFS highlights the fruitless nature of the NH profile for the UK:

Consistent modelling of the tPV to our NW and the Pacific, Arctic and Siberian highs facilitating this groundhog day of the UK under a displaced Azores high -v- zonal flow circulating to our north. So this seems the percentage call going forward unless we get some consistent signal to the contrary (that is, ignore rogue op runs like the 0Z)?

Looking at the chart above, trying to see how the PV may lose some grip... pacific high looks like it want to ridge north and join building heights direct over the Pole if this does happen this might have a domino effect buckling the jet and putting a squeeze on the PV. Not sure what drivers could enable this.. traditionally as February wears on the PV does weaken, but not always 2020 a good example. 

 

Would welcome thoughts of more knowledgeable forecasters than me to provide some musing as to what is needed to shake us out of the stalemate pattern we've been in for some time now.

Edited January 30, 2022 by damianslaw

[Froze were the Days]

Just seen this on the latest 1 monthly run on the CFS (Comedy forecasting system) - that's the -18c isotherm just off the East Coast (Chortle!)

Edited January 30, 2022 by Froze were the Days

[Dunstable Snow]

11 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Just seen this on the latest 1 monthly run on the CFS (Comedy forecasting system) - that's the -18c isotherm just off the East Coast (Chortle!)

Was it the 2004/5 winter where December/January and the first part of February were very poor for Snow, a number of posters on this channel were saying that winter was over and one for the bin and then the winds turned easterly for the last 2 weeks of February and first 10 days of March. Unfortunately there was, relatively speaking, very little really cold upper air at that time to tap into.

I was living in Lincolnshire at the time. We had lots of heavy snow showers on many days but lying snow was at a premium and generally temporary.

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, Dunstable Snow said:

Was it the 2004/5 winter where December/January and the first part of February were very poor for Snow, a number of posters on this channel were saying that winter was over and one for the bin and then the winds turned easterly for the last 2 weeks of February and first 10 days of March. Unfortunately there was, relatively speaking, very little really cold upper air at that time to tap into.

I was living in Lincolnshire at the time. We had lots of heavy snow showers on many days but lying snow was at a premium and generally temporary.

Yes winter 2004-05 was mostly mild up to the first part of February (albeit with a few short lived northerly spells), and a rather anticyclonic nothingness spell in late January.  Then the second half of February in that year brought much colder looking charts with some good easterly synoptics, but the weather never really quite lived up to the potential of the synoptics, as central Europe was at that point not particularly cold, and snowfall at low levels in that spell were short lived events, and these colder synoptics continued into the first part of March that year.

Edited January 30, 2022 by North-Easterly Blast

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Just seen this on the latest 1 monthly run on the comedy

I prefer Fawlty towers..but, if this from the CFS is an option?…I will take it! …this is an infernal  winter so far for coldies unless you live on the snake pass!  

[sukayuonsensnow]

1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Just seen this on the latest 1 monthly run on the CFS (Comedy forecasting system) - that's the -18c isotherm just off the East Coast (Chortle!)

If only.....

More likely by that stage of February it will likely be mild, wetter in the north, drier in the south.

I would love to be wrong though.

[Eagle Eye]

Just the short 600 odd hour wait, I'll start the 36,000 minute watch. Only 2,160,000 seconds to go and if you want to be technical 2,160,000,000 milliseconds.

[Godber 1]

11 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Just the short 600 odd hour wait, I'll start the 36,000 minute watch. Only 2,160,000 seconds to go and if you want to be technical 2,160,000,000 milliseconds.

Be worth it though, wouldn't it?

[Frosty.]

26 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Just the short 600 odd hour wait, I'll start the 36,000 minute watch. Only 2,160,000 seconds to go and if you want to be technical 2,160,000,000 milliseconds.

Is there a SSW I’m not aware of?.. …anyhoo..the cfs thinks so..so it’s good enough for moi..I’m easily pleased!  

Edited January 30, 2022 by jon snow

[Dancerwithwings]

2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Just seen this on the latest 1 monthly run on the CFS (Comedy forecasting system) - that's the -18c isotherm just off the East Coast (Chortle!)

Great chart but methinks all models this Winter when it’s a 10 day outcome as being showing Wintry charts from time to time, but to nothing it becomes....so it ain’t just the CFS that’s been the usual stand up comedy act

Would love that chart to come off for sure

[northwestsnow]

4 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Its amazing how ukmo is sticking to its guns. Could be one of its finest hours if correct. One of its most embarrassing ones if not. 

It will be wrong mate.

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

Just the short 600 odd hour wait, I'll start the 36,000 minute watch. Only 2,160,000 seconds to go and if you want to be technical 2,160,000,000 milliseconds.

Really, knowing how bad the Models have been this winter, you REALLY want to go 600 hours out, oh come on, at 96 hours the last funfest was way OFF the mark, right now, stability from the models is a best hope... It does appear MOST models have struggled this season given the standard parameters they use, this season has been far off norm, and the models overall, have really struggled for the 66% of the UK winter..

Time to re-write the code, as the world weather is changing and OLD scenario's don't cut it anymore.

Edited January 30, 2022 by Dorsetbred

[minus10]

3 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Just seen this on the latest 1 monthly run on the CFS (Comedy forecasting system) - that's the -18c isotherm just off the East Coast (Chortle!)

Just geniunely interested if anyone can tell me what the purpose of the cfs model is? Correct me if wrong but as far as i can tell its projections are so wildely inaccurate as to render it pointless...i know it is a long term model but it bears no relation to the other long termers such as seasonals and anomolies. So, what is its purpose and does it ever get it within the ball park??

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Just geniunely interested if anyone can tell me what the purpose of the cfs model is? Correct me if wrong but as far as i can tell its projections are so wildely inaccurate as to render it pointless...i know it is a long term model but it bears no relation to the other long termers such as seasonals and anomolies. So, what is its purpose and does it ever get it within the ball park??

 

Each run you see is just an individual ensemble. It’s part of a bigger ensemble pack, the average of which you can see on the NOAA site. Gives the mean pressure anomaly over a period of 7? Days.

[Gowon]

The UKMO is sticking to a more amplified solution at 144h 

[TSNWK]

Just now, D.V.R said:

The UKMO is sticking to a more amplified solution at 144h 

But a flattering drifting trend  towards GFS....

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

But a flattering drifting trend  towards GFS....

We'll see but the GFS at 144h is totally different. 

Look at the difference to our NE.

 

[chris55]

Can someone pass the sick bucket…

 

Im normally very much glass half full when viewing the models, but unless we get a change in the next week or two I’m thinking this could be the first winter without even a flake of snow in my location for as long as I can remember. 
 

We need a rabbit out the hat moment. 
 

[mb018538]

 

Think we’ve been here before….quite incredible at the moment that high pressure seems to be either over us or very close by at any given opportunity. Very unusual.

[damianslaw]

GFS continues to play around with positioning of high pressure which seems destined to want to set up home over UK for some time longer... it keeps it to the south but then suddenly sends it west then thinks about heading it north but then moves it over UK thereafter looks like going north.. it seems trapped in on itself. More runs needed.

UKMO retains more amplification before it gives up the ghost and a westerly feed moves in. The models have an uncanny resemblance to 4-8 Jan this year, just when it looked like Atlantic might take over the high says no... 

[Nigerian Prince]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Think we’ve been here before….quite incredible at the moment that high pressure seems to be either over us or very close by at any given opportunity. Very unusual.

That charts is a week away, I have saved it, so lets see how accurate it turns out to be, Maybe, the sick bucket should  be on hold for now, as they say a week is a long time in meteorology.

Location: Battersea,London.

 

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

Think we’ve been here before….quite incredible at the moment that high pressure seems to be either over us or very close by at any given opportunity. Very unusual.