Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[minus10]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Each run you see is just an individual ensemble. It’s part of a bigger ensemble pack, the average of which you can see on the NOAA site. Gives the mean pressure anomaly over a period of 7? Days.

Thanks Crewe. Never realised it was an individual ensemble member and part of the NOAA anomaly system. The way it is presented makes it look like an 'operational'.

[Man With Beard]

You know it's a bad winter for snow when you can't even get eye candy on GFS D16 charts:

Going to be notable in the south for lack of rain I feel

[SqueakheartLW]

Finding way more cold westerlies in the GFS extended output than anything from the north or east which is highly unusual. A good selection to view below in order from nearest to furthest away in time.

P26     +228h

P13     +234h

P20     +246h

P16     +336h

P01     +354h

P06     +378h

P23     +390h

P26     +480h

P27     +480h

P14     +528h

P30     +630h

P17     +696h

P23     +702h

P25     +822h

[northwestsnow]

17 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

You know it's a bad winter for snow when you can't even get eye candy on GFS D16 charts:

Going to be notable in the south for lack of rain I feel

It's just unrelenting dross for coldies isn't it.

I'm not even sure the advertised slide into a protracted unsettled spell is likely right now.

[Had Worse]

26 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

You know it's a bad winter for snow when you can't even get eye candy on GFS D16 charts:

Going to be notable in the south for lack of rain I feel

Whats that NFC Error, 

No Flaming Cold ?

[legritter]

Hi gang ,getting cold charts is as bad as getting good votes in euro vision contest ,its dismal ,please weather gods just one week of snow for all ,sorry legritter thats zilch points ,come on ECM bring it on .

[Weather-history]

[Nick F]

11 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Lol. It's something both EC, GFS and GEM at least agree on at day 10, HP slap bang over the UK again.

Question is, is there a chance, as GFS has hinted at but not really made much of, of the TPV being split further down the line, with one weaker vortex over W Russia / NE Europe and a more dominant vortex over N Canada. The GFS has tried this in FI and even EC at day 10 a number of times, but ultimately failed because there's just too much upper flow energy just south of Greenland to go down that route. It'll work if we can get amplification over the Atlantic and the high near us to build north. But, so far, this has been hampered by deep low heights over Greenland driving a strong jet.

[Frosty.]

I’ve never known such a poor winter… …well, since last winter! …an all too familiar chart this month, except this one is Feb 9th!… …anyway, looking on the bright side, the days are getting longer, the sun is getting higher…spring is coming!  

[blizzard81]

5 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

It will be wrong mate.

18z Icon has definitely moved towards it

[Frosty.]

It won’t be long until the GEFS / GFS reaches March and this goddamned winter will be over! ….  

Edited January 30, 2022 by jon snow

[Don]

3 minutes ago, jon snow said:

It won’t be long until the GEFS / GFS reaches March and this goddamned winter will be over! ….  

Or just beginning….

[Allseasons-Si]

56 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

18z Icon has definitely moved towards it

Yes a slight upgrade on the 12z and maybe some back edge snowfall as the cold front clears SE with wintry showers packing into the NW with some of these penetrating inland on a strong NW wind.

nice to see you back @jon snow,hope your dad is OK.

 

Edited January 30, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs has some snow for the SE on it's latest run

 

Edited January 30, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[Ali1977]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs has some snow for the SE on it's latest run

 

The control and several other ENS have the front coming through as snow, one to watch as a surprise event possibly!! 

[Allseasons-Si]

Watch out on the gfs up to day ten for some possible amplification S tip of Greenland

18z 228 vs 12z 234

[damianslaw]

20 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Watch out on the gfs up to day ten for some possible amplification S tip of Greenland

18z 228 vs 12z 234

No the next 24 hrs just sees a deep low development off eastern USA seaboard anchoring itself to south tip of Greenland and pumping up our resident high pressure. Nothing to see here.. 

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

No the next 24 hrs just sees a deep low development off eastern USA seaboard anchoring itself to south tip of Greenland and pumping up our resident high pressure. Nothing to see here.. 

It's after that time period that i will be keeping an eye on as the gfs/gefs are toying with the idea of heights pushing up to our NE,a straw clutch i know but i am looking for a link up of heights from the Azores to the Urals with -ve heights underneath,...one to watch.

Hmmm!!!

Edited January 30, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's after that time period that i will be keeping an eye on as the gfs/gefs are toying with the idea of heights pushing up to our NE,a straw clutch i know but i am looking for a link up of heights from the Azores to the Urals with -ve heights underneath,...one to watch.

Hmmm!!!

I suspect pressure on the PV will eventually come from the Asian side possibly caused by some warming in this region from the strat.. and a pinch into the pole will take place courtesy of Pacific high ridging.. could be a slow protracted evolution given no signal for a SSW.. the PV will gradually drain in situ. Height rises to the NE could be an end product but may be later February at the earliest, not too late to give a wintry episode, but may be too late for some, best those wanting cold and something wintry before winter is out can hope for . We shall see.

[PiscesStar]

Those wanting cold and snow... Look away now... More of the same from GFS... An utter Borefest... Next Run... 

[Georgina]

34 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

Those wanting cold and snow... Look away now... More of the same from GFS... An utter Borefest... Next Run... 

MY goodness it’s absolutely relentless ! 
I was hoping February was going to bring the love in and scatter us with just a little of the lovely white stuff , that is looking more and more less likely now !

please please can we have just a little taste of winter at least

[Chesil View]

I appreciate our friends in Scotland and the north have suffered some stormy conditions at times but for the southern half of the UK In terms of both model interest.and actual weather. This season is rapidly turning into the winter where nothing happened.

 

Mind you working outdoors as I do the relative lack of rain and gales has been most welcome.  No doubt we'll pay for it down the line..

[PiscesStar]

1 hour ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I appreciate our friends in Scotland and the north have suffered some stormy conditions at times but for the southern half of the UK In terms of both model interest.and actual weather. This season is rapidly turning into the winter where nothing happened.

 

Mind you working outdoors as I do the relative lack of rain and gales has been most welcome.  No doubt we'll pay for it down the line..

Yep, with a cold spring and northern blocking 

[DavidS]

UKMO EU smelling the coffee this morning, and it smells bitter.

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, DavidS said:

UKMO EU smelling the coffee this morning, and it smells bitter.

Fraid so.

The writing was on the wall yesterday.

This might be a misconception on my behalf but ukmo has been a bit meh recently.

Thats the second time in recent times its been odd one out ,and wrong.

I'm afraid I'm not going to chase fantasy cold spells anymore this winter.

It's actually not even fun right now.