Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[damianslaw]

There has been a trend away from a more concerted polar maritime airmass for the next weekend. Both GFS and ECM making more of the influence of high pressure from the azores which they both forecast to broaden out, keeping the jet on a more flatter path to our north. Any polar maritime slot becoming shorter lived with a generally westerly flow pre dominating. 

The persistence of heights to our west and south west is quite remarkable against such a large extensive PV to our NW, both features seem locked in situ, a stuck record that just keeps playing.. 

 

[That ECM]

Blah blah blah I think it’s it turned me to Stella.

[blizzard81]

58 minutes ago, BelgianBlizzard said:

Bit I still expect the ukmo to backtrack in the morning. A move to gfs and ecm instead of the other way around

That is the form horse of course but lets see. 

[Dancerwithwings]

Anybody got a ruler...straightest jet I’ve ever seen projected methinks

 

[legritter]

Hi gang ,I've been lurking ,so frustrating not to see a complete pattern change, one possible straw ,get the polar vortex to be super strong so it'll kick this unwelcome high way south , lets hope the ecm flips cold in 7hrs time , by that time expect uk met will go mild  ,take care all , ps i mean super dooper strong and parked in southern norway cheers .

[Ali1977]

A nice GFS FI for a change, just a shame it’s FI.

Edited January 30, 2022 by Ali1977

[Penrith Snow]

Up early to get my flight to Southern Spain for 3 months, so one last look at the models.

UKMO keeps the short northerly next weekend but ECM and GFS keep it more flat although ECM have it colder with -5c uppers.

After that all models flatten the pattern but then at 364 GFS moves the high north and very cold easterly winds flood the UK.

You couldn't make this stuff up.

Over to you guys, I have a plane to catch.

I will be watching from a distance.

Andy

[offerman]

6 hours ago, damianslaw said:

There has been a trend away from a more concerted polar maritime airmass for the next weekend. Both GFS and ECM making more of the influence of high pressure from the azores which they both forecast to broaden out, keeping the jet on a more flatter path to our north. Any polar maritime slot becoming shorter lived with a generally westerly flow pre dominating. 

The persistence of heights to our west and south west is quite remarkable against such a large extensive PV to our NW, both features seem locked in situ, a stuck record that just keeps playing.. 

 

Absolutely. It’s unprecedented. I could understand the high being stubborn but only if there wasn’t the presence of Say lack of energies to our north . However, this by far from the case. There is so much energy not that far away to our North and Northwest but our weoponised HP just doesn’t let anything through.  

[KTtom]

There we go! Knew this flat pattern couldnt last...all that moaning and whining ...just 384 hours to count down and then we are in business

Edited January 30, 2022 by KTtom

[offerman]

7 minutes ago, KTtom said:

There we go! Knew this flat pattern couldnt last...all that moaning and whining ...just 384 hours to count down and then we are in business

[Lukesluckybunch]

My word what a horrid ECM run,no amplification very flat pattern heights to the South etc..all the things we don't want!really fed up now chasing this cold! 

[SLEETY]

Big chill arriving for Valentines Day says GFS weather Computer.

How romantic

 

Always said this was going to be another back-end Winter

[Chesil View]

More post 300 hours silliness from the Gfs 0z. Pretty much sums up this winter so far. All the pretty looking charts flattering to deceive out in FI.

[chris55]

ECM ensemble spaghetti now available on Wetter which is nice.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

UKMO still not backtracked to ECM and GFS. I would think by tomorrow or certainly by Tuesday one or two will move.

 

BFTP

[SLEETY]

ecm mild outlier most of the run from day 4 lost the plot again.

 

 

Edited January 30, 2022 by SLEETY

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

A nice GFS FI for a change, just a shame it’s FI.

well the sole eps extended cluster isn’t a million miles away …….however, the eps mean at days 13/15 is certainly not reflective of that cluster so safe to assume that the straw isn’t as sturdy as it may initially appear and we may well see 6 clusters on the 12z run 
 

 

Edited January 30, 2022 by bluearmy

[mulzy]

56 minutes ago, chris55 said:

ECM ensemble spaghetti now available on Wetter which is nice.

Teething problems - that's yesterday's ensemble even though it's dated Sunday at the top.

Meteociel has all 51 eps ensembles runs to view at your perusal.

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble CEP/ECMWF ENS

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

Edited January 30, 2022 by mulzy

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,GFS keen on bringing northern blocking back to the table for mid February with a very cold north easterly,did not materialise last time will it happen with a positive Atlantic odds against but you never can be certain when it comes to weather.Meanwhile charts still trying to come to terms with low pressure versus high pressure in the short term interesting times ahead for cold versus mild,will be watching intensely over the next 5 days for which way to place my bet let’s hope it’s the cold side time of course will tell.

[Staffmoorlands]

Double figure temperatures for many this week before a temporary cooling off on Friday. Both UKMO and ECM suggesting some wintry showers by the end of this week

ECM for Friday 850’s

[minus10]

What is it with the ukmo, why wont it join the club?

 

[Kentspur]

57 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

well the sole eps extended cluster isn’t a million miles away …….however, the eps mean at days 13/15 is certainly not reflective of that cluster so safe to assume that the straw isn’t as sturdy as it may initially appear and we may well see 6 clusters on the 12z run 
 

 

Oh I really would love to see this come off during my week in the forests of Suffolk and Norfolk Valentines week! Come on Cluster 1! 

Edited January 30, 2022 by Kentspur

[mushymanrob]

I agree with @Mike Poole .... in terms of a proper, decent, widespread wintry event - its not going to happen this season. Just look at this Anomaly chart as it sees into mid February... its about as far away from allowing a cold eveolution as you can get. That stubborn TPV over Baffin Island has been there a month and is not going anywhere fast. There too much energy to allow blocking to our North which is vital for a Wintry spell.
Wintry spell of more than 3 days in March or April appear to arrive via a SSW, given that there no SSW this season, then all snow lovers can realistically hope for are a few transient events and they are possible.

[KTtom]

If you fancy hanging around for 576 ish hours, CFS evolves further than gfs ....it gets a bit chilly...

Edited January 30, 2022 by KTtom

[blizzard81]

58 minutes ago, minus10 said:

What is it with the ukmo, why wont it join the club?

 

Its amazing how ukmo is sticking to its guns. Could be one of its finest hours if correct. One of its most embarrassing ones if not.