Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[TSNWK]

Interesting… and 1st raised eyebrow of 2022.. I shall stay for 192

[TSNWK]

Plenty of interest up north I reckon 

[TSNWK]

At last we have discussions to have at day 7 onwards with this at day 9.. day 10 could be uk pv chart….

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

At last we have discussions to have at day 7 onwards with this at day 9.. day 10 could be uk pv chart….

Interesting to see where that Arctic high goes next, the gem has a similar configuration.... GFS totally different at day 10 in that area

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,ECM showing the pattern change at 168 hrs onwards High pressure moving away after such a long stretch of time and low pressure to our northeast bringing polar maritime air taking over.Snow showers on the cards for some and some cold 850 hpa  temperatures that we have missed under that long standing high pressure let’s hope ECM has finally got this right at a semi reliable time frame.

[Cold Winter Night]

Not sure what to think of ECM in FI.

Is it back to its old FI overamplification habits, or is is on to something this time?

The previous Northerly (Jan 31/Feb 1) was watered down and the day 10 amplification of the day before yesterday too.
The Op is consistent with the NW-SE flow that was in the ensembles for days.
This morning the extended clusters showed a return of High pressure after that Atlantic interlude.

Now some new Day 10 interest, strongly amplified with the trough far Southwest into the Iberian peninsula.
But a continued waxing and waning of an East Atlantic High, or having it settle near us again are both very much a possibility.

[ANYWEATHER]

Now ,we are getting somewhere.....

[damianslaw]

ECM following the trend towards a NW-SE aligned jet, and with it much colder uppers spilling out of the north atlantic. GFS is less amplified though at least initially, but UKMO looks to be heading the same way as ECM.

All still outside the reliable though, let's see if the synoptics shown for 4th Feb are still there by the end of the weekend. 

It's a good trend for those wanting something colder and more wintry, more so in the north. So far this winter any NW flow has been shortlived with the coldest uppers to our east and into Europe, but we have more energy in the jet forecast and the azores high will struggle I feel to anchor as close to the UK, kicked aside by the colder dense air heading out of Greenland.

[Uncertainty]

Well, as fond as I am in Cumbria of weeks and weeks of dry weather, even I’m ready for a change… as long as it’s not to long fetch south westerlies. Fortunately, that doesn’t look to be the case, with reasonably good agreement for unsettled NW winds and surprisingly good agreement at day 8-10.

GEPS

GEFS

 

So the ECM op isn’t really all that out of place, but the pattern is further west and more amplified. This morning’s biggest cluster and the op went for an outcome like this, albeit a tad less amplified.

 

The latest EC mean is really quite interesting indeed…

 

Heights to the NW with lower heights underneath us and a Ural block. Given we’re apparently heading into phase 4 with a record strong strat vortex… I’d take it. 

 

 

 

Edited January 27, 2022 by Uncertainy

[Cold Winter Night]

On EPS clusters, EC Op is in the most amplified, but smallest cluster at day 10.
Still, a general agreement on those steep NW-lies with probably pretty cold uppers for an Atlantic flow.

The extended clusters are definitely interesting with positive anomalies over the Ural and the Northwest Atlantic (all three), and Scandinavia (2 out of three clusters), with on cluster 2 somewhat lower heights to the SE over Europe, and on cluster 3 lower heights to the Southwest. Good developments for coldies, although having the pieces of a puzzle doesn't mean the puzzle is finished.

[Hammer50]

If that all comes off fingers crossed ,how much snow will we get in Essex.

[northwestsnow]

EC46 isn't great ...

Looks like the best hope for something wintry  is week commencing 31st Jan - there is a scandy trough and HP pulled west ..

Would suggest altitude required even up North.

Shame because the EC det was very snowy locally...

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, Hammer50 said:

If that all comes off fingers crossed ,how much snow will we get in Essex.

About as much as you have now.

[Scandinavian High.]

11 minutes ago, Hammer50 said:

If that all comes off fingers crossed ,how much snow will we get in Essex.

 

11 minutes ago, Hammer50 said:

If that all comes off fingers crossed ,how much snow will we get in Essex.

North westerly not much for us down in the south east manly dry chilly wind. For us we really need snowy Easterly

Edited January 27, 2022 by Scandinavian High.

[stodge]

Evening all

Hints of changes moving into the distant reaches of FI this evening.

Out at T+168 - GEM, UKMO, ECM and GFS OP.

Far from settled and indeed far from settled. As the HP declines SE there's an opportunity for the trough to dig south before the next HP moves off the Atlantic.  From there, GFS suggests a transition to a more active Atlantic with HP receding south with the jet and vigorous LP to the north meaning a strong W'ly flow - perhaps not quite as stormy as this little charmer from GFS Control:

[Paul_1978]

6 hours ago, Snowjokes92 said:

Thats a chart you would expect if AMOC collapsed or slowing down. Still thing that would be the way to go if it did ever happen. Still think the last few years have been some sort of transition period possibly of it slowing down a bit, could be why weather has been so unusual the last few years. Maybe this is why the last few years has been so up and down in extremes, though i still can't decide whether this is just climate change or as i say a slow transition to something much more off scale. Very interesting times i think. Only look at this winter to see how unusually high pressure influenced and lack of atlantic attacks.

We don't seem to have had any Atlantic attacks for about 2 years! Very unusual period of weather in the grand scheme of things.

[Singularity]

Looks like the MJO is waking up in phase 3 at just the right time to prevent first half Feb being a flat +NAO driven affair.

The usual Hendon-Wheeler plots aren’t capturing that well.

Admittedly it’s not a strong MJO so I can’t see it overriding the strong polar vortex and forcing a sustained -NAO (phase 3 supports such during a La Niña base state in Feb), but it ought to do enough to keep HP building at least as far north as Iceland from time to time, with troughs dropping down to our east. A NW flow overall but northerly at times.

Changeable for all, most rain/snow in the north. Southwest may struggle to reduce rainfall deficits from a very dry Nov-Jan.

Edited January 27, 2022 by Singularity

[damianslaw]

No comment on GFS18z surprised,shows quite a potent NW flow 5 Feb in line with ECM thereafter full on cold polar blast.. 

[Stu_London]

34 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

No comment on GFS18z surprised,shows quite a potent NW flow 5 Feb in line with ECM thereafter full on cold polar blast.. 

Based on this winter's model watching so far, I suspect 'downgrade fatigue' has set in.

Besides while it's quite an impressive polar blast, it a toppler ultimately

[A Frayed Knot]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

No comment on GFS18z surprised,shows quite a potent NW flow 5 Feb in line with ECM thereafter full on cold polar blast.. 

Everyone is Summer chasing now after all the winter is over posts. Winter is coming and so is spring i can see it incoming within 9 days 

[SteveB]

5 hours ago, damianslaw said:

No comment on GFS18z surprised,shows quite a potent NW flow 5 Feb in line with ECM thereafter full on cold polar blast.. 

Once bitten twice shy comes to mind.

Still there this morning,  and with another potent Northerly around the 12th.

All FI though which mean pure model tease mode is in full swing. 

Edited January 28, 2022 by SteveB

[joggs]

Yes, model watching fatigue clearly done for most. Also awaiting the downgrades.

[TSNWK]

57 minutes ago, joggs said:

Yes, model watching fatigue clearly done for most. Also awaiting the downgrades.

Well ECM is not so good this morning in my eyes.  If anything the trough drops to far west around day 8 and 9 and then we are left in slack col. 

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, joggs said:

Yes, model watching fatigue clearly done for most. Also awaiting the downgrades.

Nothing much possibly happening until next week anyway, meanwhile the thread over in USA on their big Nor Easter is great to follow.

How we can only dream for such synoptics.

[Man With Beard]

Looks like the pattern change coming up next week, but nothing spectacular wintry wise considering the time of the year, some good hill snow events on a NWly, but for lowland areas away from the north it's the return of cold wind and rain. Cold has also been removed from Europe, it looks like North America as usual stealing all the cold.