Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Mike Poole]

We still have 5 weeks of winter left, plus a March bonus if the weather wishes it that way.  So what is on offer?

ECM mean and spread T240:

PV - horrible - but a lot of uncertainty closer to us, and maybe a pattern in Russia with low uncertainty on the spread which could put pressure on the strat vortex later.  

Clusters T192-T240:

Potential here clusters 2 and 3, and T264+

Well a bit of a mess as you would expect, but the route to NE block is clearly still there. 

There has been nothing coupling the strat to the trop this year so far.  If, with the strat vortex going so fast, a pattern from the trop is able to stick something sharp into it in the next couple of weeks it could fly apart…as I optimistically suggested in the strat thread.  So we move into February, and some will have written that month off while I’m writing this, I expect, but hey ho!  For the first time this year, eye’s up to the strat…

 

Edited January 26, 2022 by Mapantz
Removed unnecessary comment

[minus10]

Well if we cant chase cold here there is always across the pond. Growing threat of a severe winter storm on east coast Sunday/Monday.

Btw, our own version of this...

er.........

[MP-R]

7 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well if we cant chase cold here there is always across the pond. Growing threat of a severe winter storm on east coast Sunday/Monday.

Btw, our own version of this...

er.........

An impressive cold drop over the states this weekend. My relatives in Florida are expecting a notably cold blip at the weekend... perhaps the coldest since they moved there in 2017.

[Ali1977]

Little low on Monday gives a better chance of some snow as it tracks further south , not too cold so not much sticking but another step in the right direction and you never know 

 

You can see the upgrade in the 850 GEFS even by day 4 compared to the 12z, be interesting to see if there’s any ENS Support for some snow on Monday.

Edited January 26, 2022 by Ali1977

[Duane S.]

JFF, I’m not sure I’ve seen many like this ever. It’s not so much the depth of the cold, it’s from where it’s sourced

Like I say, JFF this one…

Potential to be a January’84 ??

 

Edited January 26, 2022 by s4lancia

[Battleground Snow]

GFS 18z just edging the vortex away from Greenland, let's see if any amplification can make it up in that area further on, maybe at least a toppler

Edited January 26, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

GFS 18z just edging the vortex away from Greenland, let's see if any amplification can make it up in that area further on, maybe at least a toppler

Météociel froze but it looks like we do get a decent northerly, albeit temp. No doubt gone by the morning

Edited January 26, 2022 by Ali1977

[KTtom]

UKMO not bad this morning, 'our' high getting displaced south west by 144 and then further south west by 168, increasing influence from then Scandinavian segment of the  PV bringing in NW flow and wintry conditions for the north...

 

[Ali1977]

Better from the ECM, a cold chart at day 8 - cold enough for snow for many I’d say 

[That ECM]

[PiscesStar]

ECM showing some mouth watering temps and that dam line nicely ensconced over Britain for once.... May this continue... That pain in the backside high is finally being cajoled around by whatever forces are at hand.. Perhaps more experienced could proffer some details.... Good from my eyes anyway guys  

[That ECM]

14 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

ECM showing some mouth watering temps and that dam line nicely ensconced over Britain for once.... May this continue... That pain in the backside high is finally being cajoled around by whatever forces are at hand.. Perhaps more experienced could proffer some details.... Good from my eyes anyway guys  

There’s some support within the gefs but not much tbh. Mean illustrates the issue. Is ecm having one again? Probably but it’s something to chase until 6.45 this evening.

Edited January 27, 2022 by That ECM

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,big upgrades on ECM/GEM/UKMO Azores high drifting away low pressure to the northeast/east cold polar maritime air taking over northwesterly flow,can you believe it Snow a possibility first time this year I have been able to say that with relative confidence.Even Matt Hugo has something to say must be on a winner.

[blizzard81]

Much colder ecm mean at days 7 to 10.

[northwestsnow]

Looks like a sudden overnight upgrade!!

I'm not entirely sure  I believe it but that is a huge swing.

 

Edited January 27, 2022 by northwestsnow

[sheikhy]

Question is anything interesting happening before 192 hours?!!!!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Question is anything interesting happening before 192 hours?!!!!

Good point .

Although the foundations for a more favourable jet alignment come a little earlier..

I'm not convinced by EC but certainly a bit of interest at last , if nothing else.

[Climate Man]

48 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Good point .

Although the foundations for a more favourable jet alignment come a little earlier..

I'm not convinced by EC but certainly a bit of interest at last , if nothing else.

To be fair, GFS last night was not a million miles away. Let's see what the next hour or two says.

[damianslaw]

Looking ahead to Sunday first. ECM and UKMO show the shallow low feature heading through Scotland probably bringing risk of snow to modest levels there but rain elsewhere. GFS shows it on a slightly southerly track increasing chance of snow to low levels in Scotland and modest levels north England. One to watch.

Into February all models continue to show a tug between the azores high and a colder north Atlantic flow. GFS making more of an influence from the high, ECM and it looks like UKMO is showing greater north Atlantic influence. There is significant cold to our NW and we could tap into some cold air quite easily albeit modified.

Much longer term GFS shows what could happen should some of the core PV push a lobe into scandi... a very cold nw/n flow.

Its notable how the models are making less of the azores high possibly as ww move into the new month.

[Mike Poole]

Some interest from the clusters for the ECM op evolution, with cluster 1 looking very promising (compared to anything we’ve seen recently) in the T192-T240 range.  I think this afternoon’s runs might generate a bit of interest!

[That ECM]

An improvement on this morning.

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, That ECM said:

An improvement on this morning.

Indeed a nice little gap appearing between the purple blobs, GFS ironically did pick this up first when it was like day 12 on FI, it dropped the idea, but now has brought it back again

[Mike Poole]

GFS 6z has a decent northerly plunge at T216, reflecting the improved prospects that were shown on the ECM clusters this morning.

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 6z has a decent northerly plunge at T216, reflecting the improved prospects that were shown on the ECM clusters this morning.

Yes, it’s not ecm but it’s a move to it for sure. As you said earlier 12z’s might be of interest and it’s been awhile since we’ve said that. Could be a northerly of all northerlies on this run in fi.

Edited January 27, 2022 by That ECM

[northwestsnow]

GFS 6Z following euro 00 z!!

Old school polar NW winds !

disclaimer its FI.