Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Ali1977]

Many opportunities on the 06z, best run for bloody weeks!! Chances in the more reliable then further ones into FI !! 
The ECM cluster looks even better so happy days today for a change, albeit still some time off to get too excited.. 

METO wording change possible , hopefully anyway!! 

Edited January 27, 2022 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

The likes of @Kasim Awanamongst others must be a bit more excited this morning.

Lots of cold PM shots on offer which will be good for those with altitude exposed to NW winds ..

Edited January 27, 2022 by northwestsnow

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Many opportunities on the 06z, best run for bloody weeks!! Chances in the more reliable then further ones into FI !! 
The ECM cluster looks even better so happy days today for a change, albeit still some time off to get too excited.. 

METO wording change possible , hopefully anyway!! 

The very cold PV over NE Canada and Greenland perhaps doing us a favour here, the deep cold means less modification of the uppers as the cold air travels the Atlantic. 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The very cold PV over NE Canada and Greenland perhaps doing us a favour here, the deep cold means less modification of the uppers as the cold air travels the Atlantic. 

Indeed.

Quite shocked at the overnight runs .

Certainly elevated NW Britain looks to be in the game. 

Edit Marco highlighting the potential of tapping into colder air as the jet sinks south...

Edited January 27, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Ice Day]

Well having endured probably the worst 4 weeks of winter model watching I can remember over the 13 years I've been a member on here, finally it looks like we *may* have some interest towards the tail end of next week. Pretty good agreement between the GFS and ECM at 186/192.

Not the best set up for my location but for those in Scotland, Northern Ireland and NW England and Wales, this could deliver a decent event. I'd take this in a heartbeat, let's see if it's still there on the 12's?

 

Edited January 27, 2022 by Ice Day

[Ali1977]

That’s a pretty tasty mean at day 8. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

That’s a pretty tasty mean at day 8. 

Looking better.

 

[Ali1977]

There’s a decent handful that have a slightly better northerly by day 8/9, similar looking to the EC ENS cluster 1. These have uppers around the -10-14c mark.

Control is one of them.

[phil nw.]

A more wintry flavour to the charts this morning with the later development of +ve ht anomalies upstream.This will angle the jet on a more nw-se angle towards the UK.

 

a colder trend in the eps graph

Our resident high finally giving way and looking more unsettled as low pressure comes across so more chances of snow especially further north and with elevation.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 27, 2022 by phil nw.

[chris55]

Certainly signs of something a little more interesting in the runs today.  
 

A clear dip in 850s with the troughs moving into scandi pulling down some colder air around 4th Feb onwards.

850s London 6z.
 

 

 

[Ali1977]

Some snow rows from around the U.K. for the next 2 weeks. Let’s see if the 12z can improve again. 

[Cambrian]

The optimism of yesterday evening for signs of a route to spells of colder weather from the northwest looks well placed so far today, with the pattern change, as first indicated a few days ago, of the heights to the south progressively giving way now more in evidence. 

Across the ops it’s beginning to look very good now for increasingly colder weather from around day 7 and it could last a few days at least. 

The chart of the day so far has to be the 0z ECM at day 10, it’s so good one more posting of it won’t harm, along with the snow accumulations. 

 

Though the 06z GFS op was mostly on the cold side of the ensembles mean, the evolution is very similar to the ECM op up to day 10 and (just for fun) it is still at it from the north at the end of the run, with some notable widespread snowfall. 

  

Just goes to show you don’t need massive amplification up into Greenland, or the even less likely Scandinavian heights to appear, to get the models to show some good snow chances for us, as long as the PV wants to play ball !

Edited January 27, 2022 by Cambrian

[bluearmy]

The models seem to finally be moving onto the ‘wild ride’ i expected to begin a few days ago ….. it will only be about 10 days late ! 
 

whether we see this verify remains uncertain and we could still retain the displaced ridge across the south of the U.K. 

[damianslaw]

I mentioned Feb 99 and the models today show strong similarities at same timeframe, we had a few days of cold northerlies then.. azores high pulled further west and south west.

Key trigger is development of heights NE Canada, this buckles the jet and sends it on a more NW-SE alignment.

Edited January 27, 2022 by damianslaw

[Don]

57 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I mentioned Feb 99 and the models today show strong similarities at same timeframe, we had a few days of cold northerlies then.. azores high pulled further west and south west.

Key trigger is development of heights NE Canada, this buckles the jet and sends it on a more NW-SE alignment.

After the winter so far, something similar to February 1999 would be better than nothing, although it would still be scraps!

[Don]

3 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

METO wording change possible , hopefully anyway!! 

Not today!

[northwestsnow]

3 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Many opportunities on the 06z, best run for bloody weeks!! Chances in the more reliable then further ones into FI !! 
The ECM cluster looks even better so happy days today for a change, albeit still some time off to get too excited.. 

METO wording change possible , hopefully anyway!! 

No joy on the Exeter front.

Poor update.

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No joy on the Exeter front.

Poor update.

Yeah, seen

I thought a PM type set up might trigger some wording change if it were to come to fruition but not to be , that doesn’t mean to say it won’t happen and it won’t change tomorrow of course (it still says brief colder spells possible, which is a complete cop out)
It’s just one of those “caution required” moments when the METO aren’t singing off the same page as the models we have access too suggest “could” happen.

Still, if the 12z follow the earlier runs we should have some faith, and then require some luck!! 

Edited January 27, 2022 by Ali1977

[fromey]

This doesn’t really reflect what the models are showing or am I reading it wrong???

[Allseasons-Si]

Finally some interest in the models today

the UKMO at 168 would produce a good PM shot if it went out further

and at the moment the interest lies around the 4th-5th of Feb for a proper cold shot with the mean getting below -5

gefs 850's table/graph 

EPS 500mb/MSLP and 850's anomalies shows the MAR(mid Atlantic ridge) displace further W/SW to allow a PM flow from the NW.

 

 

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, fromey said:

This doesn’t really reflect what the models are showing or am I reading it wrong???

Positive AO reflective of the fact we have strong low pressure heights over the Pole. The models are showing low heights but some form of weak ridging as well which is not well illustrated by the strong AO. You can still have a positive AO and a colder feed of air into the UK as shown by models today... all dependent on alignment of jet a positive AO and NW-SE jet is quite normal. 

[Snowjokes92]

17 hours ago, s4lancia said:

JFF, I’m not sure I’ve seen many like this ever. It’s not so much the depth of the cold, it’s from where it’s sourced

Like I say, JFF this one…

Potential to be a January’84 ??

 

Thats a chart you would expect if AMOC collapsed or slowing down. Still thing that would be the way to go if it did ever happen. Still think the last few years have been some sort of transition period possibly of it slowing down a bit, could be why weather has been so unusual the last few years. Maybe this is why the last few years has been so up and down in extremes, though i still can't decide whether this is just climate change or as i say a slow transition to something much more off scale. Very interesting times i think. Only look at this winter to see how unusually high pressure influenced and lack of atlantic attacks.

Edited January 27, 2022 by Snowjokes92

[Stu_London]

Looks like the model output discussion has sprung back into life spurred on by some improvements (from a cold perspective) to this morning's model output.

Still all in FI and the nature of cold zonality is that favoured spots tend to do well, whereas a lot areas do not either because they are too sheltered or more likely to the south, some marginality creeps in.

I, for one, will welcome the change from anticyclonic gloom that seems to have gone for ever.

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

UKMO not too bad,but that azores high is a feature at 144! we need that sinking south!

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

UKMO not too bad,but that azores high is a feature at 144! we need that sinking south!

The UKMO is too early to show the PM flow I think, it’s beyond 168 where it kicks in on other models mainly.