Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Lukesluckybunch]

The day 10 ECM was something at the coldest end of the pack..but wasn't a complete outlier

Edited January 25, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
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[mb018538]

49 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

It's truly awful. Can anyone with any technical insight give any way out of this nightmare waste of a winter? Gfs shows a constant flow of high pressure from start to finish with the south faring the mildest by the look of it... 

Yes - In 5 weeks time  meteorological winter will be officially over  That is the only way out! I think this winter has been the most uneventful I can remember for ages. Just seems days and weeks are going by with literally nothing happening. The 00z runs are pretty similar to this, and last night's ECM update shows little to no change over the next 3 weeks out to the middle of February. High pressure staying close by, with low pressure stuck up to the NW on the whole. +NAO dominating and not much prospect of cold for now.





Some slight start warming on the GFS run towards mid February, but nothing jaw dropping. By then we are starting to get too late for any real benefit anyway, by the time any knock on effects filter down we'd be into March.

Edited January 25, 2022 by mb018538

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Yes - In 5 weeks time  meteorological winter will be officially over  That is the only way out! I think this winter has been the most uneventful I can remember for ages. Just seems days and weeks are going by with literally nothing happening. The 00z runs are pretty similar to this, and last night's ECM update shows little to no change over the next 3 weeks out to the middle of February. High pressure staying close by, with low pressure stuck up to the NW on the whole. +NAO dominating and not much prospect of cold for now.





Some slight start warming on the GFS run towards mid February, but nothing jaw dropping. By then we are starting to get too late for any real benefit anyway, by the time any knock on effects filter down we'd be into March.

Annoyingly the free ecm charts no longer include ec46 clusters so cannot see how much support for a rise of heights to our ne in week 3.

EDIT: they are back this morning and provide quite limited support for that solution ….

 

Edited January 25, 2022 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

EC certainly has snow falling over quite a wide area ..

[SLEETY]

ECM looks pretty similar to  how 1947 started ,is ever their was a time for ECM day 10 chart to verify ,it is now!!

[jules216]

From Euro high to Euro trough this is the story of January 2022 with repetitive attacks from NW in to central Eastern Europe. I am glad the seasonals like EC and UKMO are miles miles away from reality. There is so much talking about seasonal models ať the start of season and yet like spring 2021 and now January 2022 are so much different in Europe = Area of lowest skill level of seasonal models.

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, jules216 said:

From Euro high to Euro trough this is the story of January 2022 with repetitive attacks from NW in to central Eastern Europe. I am glad the seasonals like EC and UKMO are miles miles away from reality. There is so much talking about seasonal models ať the start of season and yet like spring 2021 and now January 2022 are so much different in Europe = Area of lowest skill level of seasonal models.

Yes. You've mentioned this a million times now.

Neither of those options are any good for the 99% on here anyway.

 

[cheshire snow]

34 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC certainly has snow falling over quite a wide area ..

Similar to what the GEM was showing last night.

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,UKMO/ECM looking very interesting from around 144 hrs cold polar maritime air pushing south over U.K. definitely starting to get a bit excited as both charts firming up on colder outlook within a reliable time frame.ECM in fantasy island trying to build high pressure to the North East that is still showing from yesterday’s chart as stated in my blog yesterday one to watch if shown at 144 hrs /168 hrs  then this site will be electric.

[jules216]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Yes. You've mentioned this a million times now.

Neither of those options are any good for the 99% on here anyway.

 

But there is a lot of presumtion on here about UKMO or EC mantra that when they agree on a solution IT must be right, Well its not its as far appart as it could be this January. One time it will serve to benefit UK. I would not complain sa UK has some nice frosty high pressure weather with little of Atlantic storms. Settled frosty weather is so much better then Atlantic i would say after 15 years of life on the east coast of Ireland.

 

[Ali1977]

It might not be the same on the GFS but the ICON has the US Eastern Seaboard storm running up the close further West this run, which looks to help amplify the heights around Newfoundland, if this is mirrored by the FGS it may help amplify the Ridge and improve the Northerly early next week - we shall find out in about 20 mins I guess.

Top image is the latest run.

Edited January 25, 2022 by Ali1977

[minus10]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It might not be the same on the GFS but the ICON has the US Eastern Seaboard storm running up the close further West this run, which looks to help amplify the heights around Newfoundland, if this is mirrored by the FGS it may help amplify the Ridge and improve the Northerly early next week - we shall find out in about 20 mins I guess.

Perhaps the FGS will do better than the GFS

[Floatylight]

40 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Morning all,UKMO/ECM looking very interesting from around 144 hrs cold polar maritime air pushing south over U.K. definitely starting to get a bit excited as both charts firming up on colder outlook within a reliable time frame.ECM in fantasy island trying to build high pressure to the North East that is still showing from yesterday’s chart as stated in my blog yesterday one to watch if shown at 144 hrs /168 hrs  then this site will be electric.

I hope so ,you could hear a pin drop atm.

 

[johnholmes]

500 mb update

Ec shows European trough pulled back west to align approx with Greece rather than far eastern med, with pronounced n of west flow over uk into this trough, no significant change west over remainder of chart, contour over central England is not cold by any means, so no unsettled cold on this output, other than isolated nw-n outbreaks behind cold fronts from Atlantic systems passing, mostly, nw of uk.

NOAA over UK has s of w flow west UK turning just n of w as it exits into n sea into European trough (always quite hard to decide just where this trough bottoms out as it’s on the edge of the charts), not close by uk anyway. The far west is about the same as the last post (Saturday) but, so far, it has not had any really marked effect downstream, but we are only 3 days into this change.

Little indication on this for any marked cold developing, brief incursions of Pm air behind weather systems but little effect in the south. Much as the EC output the contour heights over much of the UK are at or above normal. Quite windy at times the further north and west one lives.

I’ll look again in 3-4 days, that being at the end of the previous 6-10 day NOAA outlook on Saturday.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[KTtom]

3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Imagine being a UK pensioner who retires to their Greek or Turkish property in the Winter to escape the 'Winter' in the UK?

Whilst the 0z ECM offers slim hope of heights to our NE, with a deep and rampant trop PV entrenched over NE Canada, the chances of anything favourable are <5% in my view.

Central and South Eastern Europe are really benefitting from our semi permanent high.

The fact we and the media harp on about this every year may actually show that this isn't uncommon occurrence in winter?! .....just a thought.

[Battleground Snow]

GFS is flapping around, both in the near and long term, usually a sign of a big shake up.

It will be annoying if it trumps ECM in the short term, which at least gives some of the country a little dusting early next week.

[Ali1977]

Well the mean suggests we write another 10 days of Winter off, the “good” days of Winter are quickly ticking by and nothing points to anything significant just yet. 

We still have time though , but come the last week of Feb my preference will start swaying towards wanting a nice warm spring - unlikely I know!! 

 

There are a few ENS members heading towards what the ECM was showing at day 10 however, with heights heading up into Scandy, so will see if there’s any FI cluster with those pointing to anything colder!! 

Edited January 25, 2022 by Ali1977

[Empire Of Snow]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well the mean suggests we write another 10 days of Winter off, the “good” days of Winter are quickly ticking by and nothing points to anything significant just yet. 

We still have time though , but come the last week of Feb my preference will start swaying towards wanting a nice warm spring - unlikely I know!! 

It's still too early to write off anything. Right now I wouldn't even mind a +8 over us. Give me the extremes. I quite support the theory of fine balancing in weather even though I know it might not be scientifically correct. Bring on the +8 now and we might get  a -14 and -16 at 850hpa Easterly in mid February. 

[Ali1977]

The temperature on the FI mean into Canada is crazy, as is the PV. The GFS Control is trying to get from an ECM day 19 type set up to something better, but not sure if the Canadian sides cold/PV would help any future set up at this stage!! 
Mean and Control set ups at T312 below!! 

[jules216]

There has Been a trend of lower heights in SE Europe recently. This feature will probably be the single most important part of the puzzle nearly for all of us during this anticyclonic Wave breaking attempt. Its very hard for models to forecast it now. But if this fails and +NAO vortex pushes this anticyclone to continent,but not to Scandi there will be a long way back to cold. Something along GFS Control or EC op is probably best case scenario.

[Ali1977]

Something like P24 will do. A nice transition into a cold Easterly!! And yes, I know it’s a cherry picked ENS that has 0.0001 chance of being correct - but that’s still not no chance   

Edited January 25, 2022 by Ali1977

[Cold Winter Night]

ECM Op is the star of this morning.

Certainly one of the most promising charts within 10 days so far this winter.

The ingredients for a cold spell (Easterly) are all there:
- tPV in NE Canada.
- Solid WAA feeding a ridge going North near the UK.
- Low heights far South into Europe.
- Russian ridge preventing the 'escape' of the trough to the East.

Now these elements need to fall in the right place.

Around Jan 31/Feb 1 there is still growing support for a short wintry episode the closer to the continent you are. De Bilt has increased chances of a snow cover:

That snowfall is accompanied by above zero temperatures, but below zero dew points, so (IMBY) fingers crossed that I get to see a little bit of snow. Something to watch in the short term higher resolution models.
The East coast of England may profit too.

In the 192h-240h range, the promising Operational is in the best cluster (and probably itself the best of that cluster), with some support, but far from a majority. We can hope it has picked up something the rest of the ensemble isn't seeing yet.

The extended clusters offer a more or less 50/50 chance of either more of those familiar heights in the UK/Western Europe, or Scandinavian/Russian heights with cold potential into mid February.

Good to see at least some glimmers of hope, still in the climatological coldest time of the year.

I don't like wet, windy and mild weather, but still I'd be happy to see off this High pressure with its gloom of fog and endless stratus. What happened to the sun?

[Penrith Snow]

2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

500 mb update

Ec shows European trough pulled back west to align approx with Greece rather than far eastern med, with pronounced n of west flow over uk into this trough, no significant change west over remainder of chart, contour over central England is not cold by any means, so no unsettled cold on this output, other than isolated nw-n outbreaks behind cold fronts from Atlantic systems passing, mostly, nw of uk.

NOAA over UK has s of w flow west UK turning just n of w as it exits into n sea into European trough (always quite hard to decide just where this trough bottoms out as it’s on the edge of the charts), not close by uk anyway. The far west is about the same as the last post (Saturday) but, so far, it has not had any really marked effect downstream, but we are only 3 days into this change.

Little indication on this for any marked cold developing, brief incursions of Pm air behind weather systems but little effect in the south. Much as the EC output the contour heights over much of the UK are at or above normal. Quite windy at times the further north and west one lives.

I’ll look again in 3-4 days, that being at the end of the previous 6-10 day NOAA outlook on Saturday.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

Years ago MRFs were compiled using 500mb analysis charts as they iron out surface features.

This forecasting method is much better IMO than the Mumbo Jumbo of MJOs AMM's and Mountain Torque etc!

Keep up the good work John you have been spot on most of this winter.

Andy

[TSNWK]

15 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Years ago MRFs were compiled using 500mb analysis charts as they iron out surface features.

This forecasting method is much better IMO than the Mumbo Jumbo of MJOs AMM's and Mountain Torque etc!

Keep up the good work John you have been spot on most of this winter.

Andy

Agree.  500 plots are the best I see for trends up to two weeks . Beyond that I increasingly believe is guesswork with the latest in fashion theory taking the stage each winter.  

 

[minus10]

Well could be worse this morning.

Ecm and gfs different takes on 10 days time but i would welcome both as better than what we have now

Gfs at bottom of ens but not without support..

Didnt someone once say "keep the faith"