Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Lukesluckybunch]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

As bad as it can get at this time of year!

that E46 is a joke anyway was nowhere near close to being what it showed a few weeks back,when it was going for northern blocking all the way! it couldnt have been more wrong

[Cambrian]

12z operational runs from the big four for 168h. GEM again leads the way in terms of a more widely received cold blast, GFS and UKMO holding the middle ground, ECM the least enthusiastic, leaving most of us under the influence of the ridging high. 

GEM / GFS/ / UKMO / ECM

   

GEM showing some lying snow for many by 180h, the Cheshire Gap effect in evidence…

And is also looking promising for a reload at day 10. Comparing the 240h with the 150h chart, a day before the first potential snow event, the lining up of the incursion is very similar, there is a 970mb low just off Norway in the both, but a big difference in that at 240h, the heights  to the southwest are finally giving way and the pressure over the UK and Ireland is typically 10mb lower than 90h earlier, at 1025 mb or less for all. 
150h / 240h
 

Though with no reload,  and quite different synoptics, even the ECM and GFS are dropping the pressure by day 10, the signal for impenetrable high pressure and its ability to rebuild following incursions of the low pressure systems is gradually being lost. 

[TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN]

42 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Perhaps a Winters tease in about a weeks time, yes a week!, gfs and ecm completely different at day ten, as one would expect, Ecm interesting at that stage ,gfs . To be honest a big pattern change is inevitable, its not If.......but When???  

Day 10 possibly 

[damianslaw]

33 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

it jst flattens out with a bartlett all the way until March.

The EC was going for lots of northern blocking end of December I seem to remember - for about 5 weeks, never came to fruition. It changes too often, and I don't look at it.

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

The EC was going for lots of northern blocking end of December I seem to remember - for about 5 weeks, never came to fruition. It changes too often, and I don't look at it.

But the rule of thumb is  if the EC46 predicts cold we get mild, if it predicts mild we get mild.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

The EC was going for lots of northern blocking end of December I seem to remember - for about 5 weeks, never came to fruition. It changes too often, and I don't look at it.

its been rock solid lately - hoping an SSW could fox it though.

[stodge]

41 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

it jst flattens out with a bartlett all the way until March.

My order of northern blocking confirmed for mid-April to early June I would guess.

[damianslaw]

Just now, stodge said:

My order of northern blocking confirmed for mid-April to early June I would guess.

It's when northern blocking is most likely, when the atlantic is traditionally at it's quietest. We tend to see superb summer synoptics for warmth and dryness in the autumn and winter months (think current high pressure), and conversely superb winter synoptics for cold and snow in late spring/early summer!

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, stodge said:

My order of northern blocking confirmed for mid-April to early June I would guess.

better than not at all i suppose.

[That ECM]

People on the east coast get your binoculars out.  

[BelgianBlizzard]

Well...that doesn't look good 

 

Edited January 24, 2022 by Mapantz

[Don]

27 minutes ago, BelgianBlizzard said:

Well...that doesn't look good

 

Yep, not the type of chart a cold weather seeker wants to see for February 3rd!!

52 minutes ago, MJB said:

And you believe it ppffffttttt It's a chocolate tea pot at best 

I'm not going to ignore it!

Edited January 24, 2022 by Mapantz

[Pixel]

27 minutes ago, BelgianBlizzard said:

Well...that sucks donkey balls

 

With the GFS at 10 days out..

Edited January 24, 2022 by Mapantz

[Howie]

35 minutes ago, BelgianBlizzard said:

Well...that doesn't look good 

 

The high pressure is just relentless 

[minus10]

27 minutes ago, Howie said:

The high pressure is just relentless 

Yes this is just crazy now. An artic high and a gigantic high stretching from England well down into Africa...i dont think i have ever seen so much high pressure...

[DavidS]

GEM  is ok for me past day 5 with jet looking to align NW/SE. D6, 9 and 10 below.. At least we’d get some weather.

[That ECM]

Something to actually analyse from a cold pov.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Nice looking ECM this morning looking like the later frames could be interesting

[That ECM]

22 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Nice looking ECM this morning looking like the later frames could be interesting

For again yeah.  The coldies there are having a winter to remember.

[KTtom]

I think everyone is too scared to post a day 10 chart in case they get shot! But here goes ECM picking up where GFS was a couple of days ago with the elongated vortex to the NW allowing a ridge to head north over the UK ...day 11 onwards would have been interesting to see...

 

[mountain shadow]

8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

For again yeah.  The coldies there are having a winter to remember.

Imagine being a UK pensioner who retires to their Greek or Turkish property in the Winter to escape the 'Winter' in the UK?

Whilst the 0z ECM offers slim hope of heights to our NE, with a deep and rampant trop PV entrenched over NE Canada, the chances of anything favourable are <5% in my view.

Central and South Eastern Europe are really benefitting from our semi permanent high.

[northwestsnow]

EC det does give some snow mainly North of the Midlands at 144 ..

[northwestsnow]

30 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Imagine being a UK pensioner who retires to their Greek or Turkish property in the Winter to escape the 'Winter' in the UK?

Whilst the 0z ECM offers slim hope of heights to our NE, with a deep and rampant trop PV entrenched over NE Canada, the chances of anything favourable are <5% in my view.

Central and South Eastern Europe are really benefitting from our semi permanent high.

EC det day 10 is a cracker ..

Do I believe it ?

Certainly not!

[IDO]

I think we have been warned off D10 ECM charts showing heights further north than the mean, they rarely ever see the light of day, but GFS has had similar so not totally dismissed. Looking at the D10 means:

They are very similar in our quadrant with the core heights sinking, but the GEFS model the Pacific differently. The GFS op is not usable as is a clear outlier for 850's and there is a lot of scatter within members, so chaos reigns:

London 0Z> 

I would say that D6 is as far as we should look ATM whilst the models decipher upstream and our region. I think we are moving into Feb with a change on the horizon, not sure what yet!

[carinthian]

Morning all. The amazing snowstorms in Turkey making the news over here this morning. So, back to Blighty, does the latest UKMO and ECM offer a beacon of light to end this mundane spell ? I suppose looking at the temps during this month England and Wales have not been particular mild, apart from most of Scotland. Could be many would prefer calm dry conditions over wet , windy and sludge weather if they had a choice ?  Back to the charts , ECM and UKMO  offer a similar NH profile out at 168t. Can we get heights to build towards Scandinavia to rescue your last winter month ?  Possibly , yes looking at the chart below. However, everything in the text book forecast has to come together and that is for the lower heights and cold entrenched over Eastern Europe / Western Russia to transfer SW  and for trough out over NE Canada to dig SE into the North Atlantic and then pressure will build and hold over Scandinavia. Easy isn't it ? but as I report some potential shown in the Euro models this morning.

C