Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[SLEETY]

1. Ecm just getting worse and worse ,for those seeking cold weather,another 10 days written off.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Does the UKMO extended at 168,not look decent?..could be a toppler scenario,but looks as if a trigger low will move southeast into Europe to improve further amplification in the Atlantic.

Edited January 24, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding text

[SLEETY]

does ukmo 168 every verify?????????

[mulzy]

Maybe, just maybe the extended mean eps getting a touch better - something like the gfs at day 15/16 will feature in the extended clusters.  Not great but positive evolutions from there if we can get the PV over Greenland to ease off a bit.

I know it's scrapping the barrel, but need to inject some positivity in here.

I keep saying that we need to look east/north east in the extended - might not deliver but that is where our best hope remains.

[Mark Smithy]

The 0z GFS FI offering of a returning high pressure cell next week has little or no support among its own ensemble members. Indeed it's an outlier.

 

ECM much more progressive.

Edited January 24, 2022 by Mark Smithy

[IDO]

Not much to add, HP dominates for the reliable, 10+ days, and as this is clearly related to an underlying pattern, we can assume it will verify well. The GEFS suggest what they have been for a while.

D16 0Z mean> 

That NH profile from D7 onwards, mid-lat Pacific and Siberian highs blocking the main tPV lobe over our quadrants. D16 above highlights that is the status quo, and with no sign of any disruptive forcing, it looks plausible. The GFS members are alternating what that tPV will do within that larger picture and ATM the control and op show two different possibilities amongst others.

D13 op and control> 

Subtle differences but neither of them that palatable! The wait continues...

[SLEETY]

why is ecm op always  mild outlier at the end,nearly every time?

Edited January 24, 2022 by SLEETY

[bluearmy]

27 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Maybe, just maybe the extended mean eps getting a touch better - something like the gfs at day 15/16 will feature in the extended clusters.  Not great but positive evolutions from there if we can get the PV over Greenland to ease off a bit.

I know it's scrapping the barrel, but need to inject some positivity in here.

I keep saying that we need to look east/north east in the extended - might not deliver but that is where our best hope remains.

Yep - this is where the scraps lie 

the Canadian tpv extends towards far e asia segment which flattens the semi permanent upper ridging from the pacific and this ‘wraps up’ the Canadian vortex allowing large amplification in the e Atlantic and w Asian sectors.  it’s a straw and it has a potentially high reward for coldies into mid feb.  The 46 this evening will reveal if any clusters have picked this up for week 3.  The eps control does. 

[tight isobar]

Just wacking out a couple of many decent snapshots from GEM/GFS overnights!!! From each suite- and semi- reliable to boot- for me we hold the best part of an- otherwise so far dismal winter- something has to give, and the rates are as good as it gets in suites all round to start... so I remain optimistic, at least !!

Edited January 24, 2022 by tight isobar

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,charts trying to get a handle on things after 5 days some changes can be expected possibly for colder scenario to return,in the mean time this week temperatures will fluctuate but never be far away from average.Well worth keeping a keen eye on GEFS ensembles for the first week of February could be interesting.

 

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning. Both UKMO and ECM models this morning pick up that wave disturbance formation in Mid Atlantic to run across Central Britain later next weekend. Not sure it will be a game changer but does dig the colder air further south with the first prospects of some wintry conditions to end the month. It appears a rather strange formation in the high pressure zone but could develop more significantly  in later runs or could just disappear . However, it is being shown in the European models and is not without interest for you folk. 

C

A rare sight indeed for this month. The UKMO extended progs a little snow cover from the forecast runner across the hills of Mid/East Wales and Central Southern England next Sunday evening.

C

 

[jules216]

Somebody enlight me please. How is it possible that seasonal models nearly all got this January wrong. All were in December singing with SC/EE high pressure,yet I am on 17th! Day of cold spell, see my weather station data. And this EPS to see of January. IT Has Been a winter of very low skill levels from weeks 2-3 on the models big time.

[Nick B]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

does ukmo 168 every verify?????????

Well, it must do, if ECM's 240 is being used to write off a whole ten days.

Just to note though, I don't see anything particularly of a cold note in that period. However, that's because of the underlying drivers not being conducive, not so much the vagaries of the post-6-day det output.

Edited January 24, 2022 by Nick B

[jules216]

I wonder if this extended signal of Ural high may lead to a weaker vortex signal down the line. Tíme is running out for significant impacts even if SSW was to occur which is a long shot. It would have to be 2013,2018 even those years SSW occures much earlier. I for one not wish to have another cold spring, fór example 3 mays in a row have been below average although I am not sure May Has got anything to do with SSW.

[minus10]

2 hours ago, Mark Smithy said:

The 0z GFS FI offering of a returning high pressure cell next week has little or no support among its own ensemble members. Indeed it's an outlier.

 

ECM much more progressive.

I think this sums up this winter. Yes an outlier but...off the scale for hp....just crazy...model infatuation with hp..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well what I’m seeing is a signal of backing the HP west being picked up again and still on the table.  Strong Northerly for end of month?.  Models are not consistent day to day…

 

BFTP

[Nick F]

Another northerly toppler to chase for this time next week? Hopefully this time, HP will be further away so we actually see troughs and showers bring wintry precipitation to more than just the far north and eastern coastal fringes.

[Ali1977]

Next Monday still has a little wintery possibility according to this run, and others

 

[That ECM]

23 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Well what I’m seeing is a signal of backing the HP west being picked up again and still on the table.  Strong Northerly for end of month?.  Models are not consistent day to day…

 

BFTP

Where are you seeing this HP backing west? Looks like it topples east. Or are you suggesting it moves west initially to allow a north northwest flow before moving east? As per 06z?

 

 

 

Edited January 24, 2022 by That ECM

[mountain shadow]

22 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Well what I’m seeing is a signal of backing the HP west being picked up again and still on the table.  Strong Northerly for end of month?.  Models are not consistent day to day…

 

BFTP

Certainly no strong Northerly for these islands,  maybe into the continental as usual.  

I think you were expecting a big change about now, has your research not worked this time?

[Kasim Awan]

Gfs / Gem cannon fodder - ecm / icon have got this. Strong Azores / Iberian high.

[Cold Winter Night]

Two periods of interest in the model output right now.

The first one is the possibility of a more Northerly flow, with some snow chances around the turn of the month.
(!) Important to stress this is of more interest the further East you go, so for those of us on the continent like myself, but also for Eastern parts of England.

It was a smaller probability option in yesterday's 12z's, and tbh I expected it to be pretty much gone this morning, but no, across models and in the EPS, the clusters with the ridge further NW and a more Northerly flow on January 31/February 1 have actually grown, and so have the snow chances, here the chance of a snow cover for De Bilt:

Interesting to see what models do with this over the coming days.
It's not the beginning of a sustained cold spell, but perhaps a touch of winter and we can't complain about that, considering how this "winter" has behaved so far.

192h-240h shows a return of heights in our area.

The second period of interest in my opinion in is the extended (264h-360h), with height rises to the Northeast now more than just a hint.
Only two equally sized clusters, both with significant positive height anomalies developing either in Scandinavia or in the Russian Arctic.

They're not yet placed or oriented in a way that brings us cold inside the 15 day period, but it would signify a real pattern shift and possibly a highly interesting early mid February period.

It will be interesting to see what EC46 made of this same run, although the extended modelling has not performed very well in the Atlantic/European region so far this winter.

[Bricriu]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

Gfs / Gem cannon fodder - ecm / icon have got this. Strong Azores / Iberian high.

Just curious, how do you know they have got this, because of what's gone before? I mean do you feel we are stuck in a rut that won't change till the TPV over Canada weakens?

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs 6z seems to want to bring a northerly for this time next week I'd bank that right now 

[Weather-history]

Look how dry GFS 06z is out to the second week of February, south of the Border

The current EWP is about 33mm for this month