Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think we are seeing incremental upgrades of timing of pattern change occurring…..and solidifying of strength of storminess.  Hold on to your hats

 

 BFTP

Edited January 22, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Ali1977]

8 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I think we are seeing incremental upgrades of timing of pattern change occurring…..and solidifying of strength of storminess.  Hold on to your hats

 

 BFTP

It’s Certainly looking cold by day 10

 

And colder still  by day 12

Edited January 22, 2022 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

First one was the teaser, here comes the big one.

Edited January 22, 2022 by feb1991blizzard

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

First one was the teaser, here comes the big one.

Yeah she’d do, fingers crossed things just get better as the day tick by  could this end up bringing a north easterly I wonder !! 

 

Edited January 22, 2022 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yeah she’d do, fingers crossed things just get better as the day tick by

 

Pity it doesn't go out further, big Easterly would ensue if it did.

[supernova]

Have been reluctant to post recently as persistent high pressure has delivered a rather groundhog day New Year which hardly seems worthy of comment from a coldie perspective but tentative signs a stormy end to the month could precipitate a pattern change although quite to what I’m struggling to fathom. A relentless PV continues to show no evidence of abating (quite the opposite in fact)…

which leaves me lacking confidence in anything other than fleeting PM incursions and/or toppling northerlies although I get the sense we might start to see greater interest in the output as February draws closer. Still favouring interest from the NE although no real evidence of that yet but strat and trop remain far from coupled which makes me think all options remain on the table beyond the near term. Honestly, very little about this winter has been predictable which gives me comfort there may still be a surprise or two in the offing before we’re counting daffodils. Remaining hopeful!

 

Edit: Just seen end of pub run. Yeah, that!

Edited January 22, 2022 by supernova

[BelgianBlizzard]

FI...this is the mother of pub runs

[cyclonic happiness]

Oh heck, not another day 10 chase, it's exhausting. 

Oh, alright, I suppose so then.........

[Purga]

Aahh a good old fi pubby

and not without support.

 

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, supernova said:

Have been reluctant to post recently as persistent high pressure has delivered a rather groundhog day New Year which hardly seems worthy of comment from a coldie perspective but tentative signs a stormy end to the month could precipitate a pattern change although quite to what I’m struggling to fathom. A relentless PV continues to show no evidence of abating (quite the opposite in fact)…

which leaves me lacking confidence in anything other than fleeting PM incursions and/or toppling northerlies although I get the sense we might start to see greater interest in the output as February draws closer. Still favouring interest from the NE although no real evidence of that yet but strat and trop remain far from coupled which makes me think all options remain on the table beyond the near term. Honestly, very little about this winter has been predictable which gives me comfort there may still be a surprise or two in the offing before we’re counting daffodils. Remaining hopeful!

 

Edit: Just seen end of pub run. Yeah, that!

Disconnect anyone ?

[Stu_London]

Best FI from an operational run for a few days for cold hunting. Plenty of cold ensembles also as we go into February. 

Thermally, mid winter is the last week of January and the first few days of February, so there is still plenty up for grabs despite the rather moribund output we have been subject to for most of the month.

Expect lots of chopping and changing with the output in the next few days - but if we are to get a cold spell in the first half of February, this week will probably be the one to spot the trend, if not the detail.

 

 

[kumquat]

zzzzzz.....zzzzzzz.......Oh...what!?...did the pub run do a couple of shots?

 

[syed2878]

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

It’s Certainly looking cold by day 10

 

And colder still  by day 12

  Very interesting how these charts showing cold at day 10 and even day 12 yet Exeter is not going for any such looking at today’s extended any snow is reserved for northern hills according to them I just wonder why they are not picking up on those signals and what their in-house models showing.

[Crackerjack]

7 minutes ago, kumquat said:

zzzzzz.....zzzzzzz.......Oh...what!?...did the pub run do a couple of shots?

 

They did indeed and a lock in by the looks of it.

[kumquat]

17 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

  Very interesting how these charts showing cold at day 10 and even day 12 yet Exeter is not going for any such looking at today’s extended any snow is reserved for northern hills according to them I just wonder why they are not picking up on those signals and what their in-house models showing.

Firstly they won't commit at that range and also the wishbone effect if that was to come off would pretty much be the outcome. Uppers -6/-8 up north warmer aloft further south with little to no ppn about. Would be great to see their models, though.

[kumquat]

47 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Disconnect anyone ?

A tighter disconnect showing turmoil rather than leech. Lets hope so.

[PiscesStar]

6 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Yeah she’d do, fingers crossed things just get better as the day tick by  could this end up bringing a north easterly I wonder !! 

 

Please Lord we have been patient 

[Ali1977]

Some good ENS this morning, the control isn’t bad either

You know, maybe this is the type of set up we could have in Feb - East based La Niña and all that

Edited January 23, 2022 by Ali1977

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just looks like another FI wild goose chase.

Some seem to never learn. Mobile February is what I'm expecting given the strength of the PV even if there is a disconnect. Plenty of cold rain to balance out the dry January. 

[Quantock]

Uk MET at 168 hrs this morning showing mid Atlantic high pressure ridging towards Greenland with low pressure in the Med around Sicily.  The intense lows shown by ECM and GFS at the same time frame  (which then go on to flatten the HP) are absent on the MET solution so some interest if this pans out.  

[SLEETY]

Just checked the models after a week,still looking woeful for anythiny resembling an incoming cold-spell.

The ECM looks dreadful with TPV still in charge.

Extremely dissapointing Winter for snow again,only the few frosts and dry weather the positive you can take from it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[carinthian]

4 minutes ago, Quantock said:

Uk MET at 168 hrs this morning showing mid Atlantic high pressure ridging towards Greenland with low pressure in the Med around Sicily.  The intense lows shown by ECM and GFS at the same time frame  (which then go on to flatten the HP) are absent on the MET solution so some interest if this pans out.  

Yes , a bit more of an opportunity to engage some colder weather into the British Isles to end the mundane month. Certainly charts shown by quite a few of its GFS members runs indicate that. The chart below from UKMO at 168t has a huge Scandinavian Low pressure system that engages a outflow of Arctic air heading towards Northern Britain. Possibly another temporary incursion but appears to show more  of a substantial impact by the end of the month, especially if lower heights over Scandinavia become less transient.

 C

[Floatylight]

The difference of opinion in here is amazing.

I don't know what everybody is looking at?

But going into febuary we are colder ,milder,no ppn about with lots of cold rain.

No hope of anything snowy with some great chances of a North easterly.

With - 8 uppers.

Colder but not freezing .

When its been freezing every morning here already?

But nothing noteworthy in the disappointing models.

Certainly a variation in outcomes depending on who looking at them! 

 

 

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,UKMO the best of the bunch at 168 hrs with some possibility later on,ECM/GFS not very exciting high pressure reluctantly hanging around let’s hope it pulls away west and stays there allowing a more pm north/northwesterly to get established.

[Ali1977]

20 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

The difference of opinion in here is amazing.

I don't know what everybody is looking at?

But going into febuary we are colder ,milder,no ppn about with lots of cold rain.

No hope of anything snowy with some great chances of a North easterly.

With - 8 uppers.

Colder but not freezing .

When its been freezing every morning here already?

But nothing noteworthy in the disappointing models.

Certainly a variation in outcomes depending on who looking at them! 

 

 

All options are still on the table for sure, but it does look like the HP is finally getting squeezed out. Where that leads us is still open , and for most they won’t take notice of the colder options until the METO forecast changes!! That UKMO 168 looks promising but not supported by the ECM or the GFS!!