Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[bluearmy]

7 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Disconnect anyone ?

For a couple of runs last week, it looked like it might connect but it stays with the trop leading the pattern. 
 

but the tpv cannot be disconnected completely from the spv as it’s one structure …… it looks like the Canadian segment is relocating towards central Canadian longtitude and the Alaskan/Aleutian  ridge may be gone as we go into feb. so we should expect some kind of pattern change downstream but way too early to get a handle on what that will be. Probably a greater chance of any mid lat ridging gaining some traction further north and that wouldn’t preclude to our nw ….. 

1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Just looks like another FI wild goose chase.

Some seem to never learn. Mobile February is what I'm expecting given the strength of the PV even if there is a disconnect. Plenty of cold rain to balance out the dry January. 

 Certainly on the table ……….. with everything else! 

[Guest]

High pressure dominated with temperatures rising into February. Feeling mild at times.

February starting warm but looking like much wetter cooler weather moving in from the West, also know as zonal. 

Small chance the high pressure dominates into February - something I would enjoy.

[joggs]

6 minutes ago, DCee said:

High pressure dominated with temperatures rising into February. Feeling mild at times.

February starting warm but looking like much wetter cooler weather moving in from the West, also know as zonal. 

Small chance the high pressure dominates into February - something I would enjoy.

Starting warm?.

So we're looking at 17/18c?

[tight isobar]

40 minutes ago, DCee said:

High pressure dominated with temperatures rising into February. Feeling mild at times.

February starting warm but looking like much wetter cooler weather moving in from the West, also know as zonal. 

Small chance the high pressure dominates into February - something I would enjoy.

February starting warm???..

[tight isobar]

As good as a starting point ya can get- for plenty of stress on the vortex- where we go further down the line is well and truly open to speculation! The Pacific sector has eyes for wave breaking @ BIG TIME!

[SqueakheartLW]

I do remember saying it was February and March we needed to look out for with us having an EP La Nina

Februaries - EP La Nina

In EP La Nina years we hit the jackpot for cold in the Februaries. A strong northern blocking signal as well as a split polar vortex unleash the beast from the east onto Europe and the UK. Not only that we see a cold signal for the USA and Canada too under the other half of the polar vortex. If we can get our current La Nina into EP territory, watch this space and look out for what February could bring.

Marches - EP La Nina

EP La Nina years see the northern blocking signal from February carry over although less strong than in Februaries. This results in a colder signal for Europe but the anomaly is likely to be less severe. The cold USA signal also continues on. Between EP and CP La Nina I think CP La Nina is better for the USA cold but EP La Nina can be good for them too.

Summary

Maybe we are now finally starting to see the expected EP La Nina signature with strong northern blocking beginning to creep into the output.

Perhaps we are finally going to see a shift to a proper cold setup

With a number of colder options now showing up in the more extended part of the GFS then maybe the EP La Nina signature for February and March may play out after all and the coldest part of the winter is still to come.

[That ECM]

A chart to sum up winter. sooooo close but……… surely one of these will land?

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

A chart to sum up winter. sooooo close but……… surely one of these will land?

Certainly as been being modelled- a cold start to the new month, And there IS scope for more notable cold incursion- as the models toy with pressure placements in the Atlantic.. edit: watch the word “boundary lines “ being flagged up as we sway out of January!

Edited January 23, 2022 by tight isobar

[MJB]

1 hour ago, DCee said:

High pressure dominated with temperatures rising into February. Feeling mild at times.

February starting warm but looking like much wetter cooler weather moving in from the West, also know as zonal. 

Small chance the high pressure dominates into February - something I would enjoy.

According to GFS of course 

[That ECM]

7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Certainly as been being modelled- a cold start to the new month, And there IS scope for more notable cold incursion- as the models toy with pressure placements in the Atlantic.. edit: watch the word “boundary lines “ being flagged up as we sway out of January!

1/2 way house doesn’t cut it tbh. The pv just won’t allow it. We’ll keep looking and hoping but until that changes it’s more hope than expectation.

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

1/2 way house doesn’t cut it tbh. The pv just won’t allow it. We’ll keep looking and hoping but until that changes it’s more hope than expectation.

And... hope rains eternal

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

And... hope rains eternal

Absolutely, it’s the hunt for cold.

[Ali1977]

A few ENS similar to the UKMO at 168, something to watch for!! 

[Tim Bland]

Surprised no one’s mentioned the complete split in FI…

[sebastiaan1973]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

I do remember saying it was February and March we needed to look out for with us having an EP La Nina

Februaries - EP La Nina

In EP La Nina years we hit the jackpot for cold in the Februaries. A strong northern blocking signal as well as a split polar vortex unleash the beast from the east onto Europe and the UK. Not only that we see a cold signal for the USA and Canada too under the other half of the polar vortex. If we can get our current La Nina into EP territory, watch this space and look out for what February could bring.

Marches - EP La Nina

EP La Nina years see the northern blocking signal from February carry over although less strong than in Februaries. This results in a colder signal for Europe but the anomaly is likely to be less severe. The cold USA signal also continues on. Between EP and CP La Nina I think CP La Nina is better for the USA cold but EP La Nina can be good for them too.

Summary

Maybe we are now finally starting to see the expected EP La Nina signature with strong northern blocking beginning to creep into the output.

Perhaps we are finally going to see a shift to a proper cold setup

With a number of colder options now showing up in the more extended part of the GFS then maybe the EP La Nina signature for February and March may play out after all and the coldest part of the winter is still to come.

But... do we have an EP la Nina? 

[Crackerjack]

23 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Surprised no one’s mentioned the complete split in FI…

I thought all the charts last week were showing the purple blob moving all to the east by now? I assume that didn’t happen and going by that forecast it’s all to the left

[Guest]

2 hours ago, joggs said:

Starting warm?.

So we're looking at 17/18c?

Yes warm. 13 to 14C in the sun is warm for February. I think we might squeeze 15C in favoured spots beginning of Feb, before the wet zonal period starts, or preferably more high pressure.

 

Edited January 23, 2022 by DCee

[Purga]

That hackneyed word 'potential' comes to mind when viewing FI.

The NH view is interesting.

[minus10]

32 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Surprised no one’s mentioned the complete split in FI…

Yes Tim, right at the end. You couldnt make it up. Just another variation that will be gone next run. 

While i know there have been other winters that have been high pressure dominated, it just seems to me that this hp barrage is so relentless this year. Pm shots always being downgraded because hp is much closer and everything pushed further north.

Jetstream here in a kind of omega block but, as usual, in the wrong place. Of course will be different next run

As others have said you jusr know that by March/April it will change but by then...too late.

[booferking]

23 minutes ago, Crackerjack said:

I thought all the charts last week were showing the purple blob moving all to the east by now? I assume that didn’t happen and going by that forecast it’s all to the left

If the heart of the cold remains in the Canadian side then the purple blob will remain there.

[TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN]

I have a funny feeling that this is going to be "rinse and repeat" with the high pressure waxing and waning to the west of us....

[SqueakheartLW]

49 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

But... do we have an EP la Nina? 

In theory going by this chart the coldest anomalies are east of 150W with a particular focus on the 120W to 90W region so that would suggest this is an EP La Nina.

However the atmosphere seems to be acting more like we are in a CP La Nina setup with a +NAO and strong vortex.

[SqueakheartLW]

Just out of curiosity decided to see what the 500hpa anomaly has been so far for this winter. This is what I got for the period 1st December to the latest it allowed me to, 20th January.

So far a bit of northern blocking showing up which is what you would probably expect to see in an EP La Nina year and looking at that you would think things would have been cold so far with the UK at the tail end of above average anomalies that stretch right back into the polar regions.

This screams totally of potential which we have missed out on to me. Another striking feature is all those below average heights across the Sahara so far this winter. No wonder we've had reports of snow in the Sahara with the cold air pushing right down through eastern Europe and into N Africa. It also seems Canada is doing well this winter in terms of colder than average too.

Another case of what could have been so far.

[MJB]

56 minutes ago, DCee said:

Yes warm. 13 to 14C in the sun is warm for February. I think we might squeeze 15C in favoured spots beginning of Feb, before the wet zonal period starts, or preferably more high pressure.

 

That part of the run was where the OP was at it's mildest with the tiniest of support

 

 

[minus10]

6z Ens  confirm that pressure still relatively high up to end of run although op bit of an.outlier in later stages. 

As previously stated, we are plagued with hp....