Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

GFS 06 z ensembles

Certainly some interest as we head into Feb with a good looking mean and lots of cold options.

 

Best set for quite some time, with a little cluster going to -10c too

Edited January 22, 2022 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Best set for quite some time, with a little cluster going to -10c too

yes it is a nice set,as always though around 10 days out..also to note we have seen similar ens like that already this season,lets hope that this time it comes to fruition

[Cambrian]

The GEM was again the pick of the 0z operational runs, with arguably the best chart of the day so far, for day 9, the UK and Ireland under the influence of low pressure, troughing southwest towards us from just north of Lapland, with low pressure over Iberia helping shunt the high further west and even some good amplification for a while towards the southern tip of Greenland. The resulting northwesterly flow is cold enough for some snow for some of the hilly areas.

  

The possibility then of a brief cold snap sometime around day 9 / 10, nothing much in it in itself, but more importantly perhaps, it looks like we could be seeing slow steps towards a more favourable pattern of regular colder bursts, with occasional chances for wintry days thrown in, such as speculatively for day 12, picked up by the 6z GFS. 

 

Boy is it all a marginal setup though, not the cleanest of signals at all, and still a long way out at day 8 to 10 and beyond. The GEM op / control has been consistently indicating similar for a few days now, but the GFS op is erratic, though as @Ali1977 and @Jeremy Shockey point out, the 6z GEFS means in the longer run are giving more of a signal, while the ECM is reluctant to give up the horizontal disk shape of the high ridging towards northern Iberia, so to be fair if we do get a chilly blast around day 9 heralding a pattern change, in terms of the operational runs at least, it will be kudos to the GEM. (Saying all this probably means it will drop it all next run!)

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

yes it is a nice set,as always though around 10 days out..also to note we have seen similar ens like that already this season,lets hope that this time it comes to fruition

Yes, too early to really take note at the mo.

[Chesil View]

Gfs 06z flattering to deceive beyond day ten again. Reliably unreliable as usual.

[Bill4321]

Looking at the models for the end of the month and it's nice to see a bit of consistency for a chance to see things getting a bit chillier from the north..

GEM:

JMA:

NASA/GEOSEA5

CFS (I know, I know..)

GFS (a couple of days late to the party)

ECM (A party? What party?)

[mulzy]

Beware GFS/GEFS - it’s had a shocker of a winter.  However, a low probability chance that it is into something that comes to fruition.

Nothing special from the extended eps except the AO is now trending slightly more negative in the outer reaches when compared to previous runs.

Edited January 22, 2022 by mulzy

[Guest]

Lovely sunny high for the most part. Long may it last (until Feb by the looks of it), but then other options on the table.

 

[snowray]

I’m keeping a keen eye on the super consistent ICON, once this model shows some decent pattern change I’ll start taking some interest.

[johnholmes]

I;ll do a more informative post this afternoon with the 500 mb charts as my main tool. 

here it is

A 500 mb anomaly chart update 

The  comment I put into my daily check of the anomaly charts (on Thursday)was this

Not at all sure of this BUT The trough ridge development in the far west, Pacific/western coast of N America, is showing signs of quite a change (the 6-10 had not got this), it MAY cause the main trough, pole to ne Canada, to be pulled to the west. I write MAY. IF it does then in turn the westerly Atlantic flow into the trough well east in Europe, again, MAY, be pulled west. Eventually this MAY lead to a NW’ly flow over the UK with either Atlantic or Iceland ridging into a closer European trough.

I’ll watch for 24-48 hours to see if anything does develop. 

This was summed up this morning by this post from Nick F  ‘There are signs of a pattern change upstream over N America in ensemble means, with the current trough over the east moving back to the west and ridging developing over eastern N America. This pulls the ridge over NW Europe west over the Atlantic towards the end of the month into early Feb - allowing more of a westerly to northwesterly trajectory of the upper flow from Greenland / NE Canada into northern/northeastern Europe.'

The latest, yesterday evening, now  shows on both the 8-14 and to some extent on its 6-10 day chart, see bottom of post.

I no longer try to work out what may have caused this further upstream or other teleconnections, there are those on this site who may add their knowledge about this.

So to add what I think may develop. The effect of the deepening trough down the western coast of N America along with ridging increasing west of this, will be to cause the pattern east of these to be pulled back west due to airflow through the whole pattern. Just how far and where the ridge and trough end up is beyond my knowledge. However, ridging mid Atlantic/Iceland/Greenland is quite often one of the ‘default’ areas along with the trough being over Scandinavia/western Europe rather than Greece recently!

Below are is the relevant link to the NOAA charts along,earlier in the day, I posted a link to the 10 day mix of ECMWF charts suggesting a more North of West flow.

It may not happen but it is unusual for the NOAA charts to be far from what transpires.

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

The EC chart is not yet showing any suggestion of what I've suggested, it is at times behind the NOAA output in any changes to wavelengths.

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

Edited January 22, 2022 by johnholmes

[Penrith Snow]

Don't get too excited if we see cold zonality forecast with -5 uppers, for most of us it won't deliver.

Living in Cumbria with a bit of height cold zonality can be excellent for snow but it's still a rare beast and even here -5c uppers on a north westerly will only bring snow to the fells above 400 meters, to get snow down close to sea level we really need uppers below -7c which is quite an ask of an airmass crossing the north Atlantic.

It does happen but not convinced yet that this is what awaits us in early February, having said that the end of this zombie weather can't come soon enough.

Andy

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

This could get tasty.  That LP south of Greenland has it’s eye on us and it’s deep.  The HP to retract west and it to move SE across us?

Severe gales, then very cold air to flood across us.  

 

 

BFTP

Edited January 22, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Ali1977]

Looking good, a little bit earlier this run but still day 10!! 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

that is a monster.  I’ve been eyeing this period up for long time.  It’s still FI but a very newsworthy storm NW/SE anticipated with ‘concern’ in there, this would fit the bill.  It’s still FI but defo a period to focus on.
 

BFTP

[Staffmoorlands]

UKMO consistent with its predicted mild and more unsettled weather for the end of next week. Met office widely showing  8c to 10c. Not the best for the last week of January

 

[joggs]

27 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

that is a monster.  I’ve been eyeing this period up for long time.  It’s still FI but a very newsworthy storm NW/SE anticipated with ‘concern’ in there, this would fit the bill.  It’s still FI but defo a period to focus on.
 

BFTP

Nice to look at if it's wind you're after. Won't happen like shown anyway. I'll hazard a guess and say they'll move further north nearer the time.

Edited January 22, 2022 by joggs

[feb1991blizzard]

19 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

UKMO consistent with its predicted mild and more unsettled weather for the end of next week. Met office widely showing  8c to 10c. Not the best for the last week of January

 

Yes, absolutely gutted, i was really expecting to see powerhouse Northerlies and Easterlies with temps well below freezing all day at D6 on today's 12zs

[Froze were the Days]

Yawn! +NAO continues with the high relaxing southwards into the foreseeable! maybe some Pm air and more interest for the north.

[Staffmoorlands]

Day 10 GEM shown here- familiar pattern with some brief northerly's delivering nothing for most of England

 

[markw2680]

Personally bring on the gales, rain, sleet whatever the weather will throw at us. Anything is better than this still nothing rubbish 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

24 minutes ago, joggs said:

Nice to look at if it's wind you're after. Won't happen like shown anyway. I'll hazard a guess and say they'll move further north nearer the time.

I’ll have virtual beer with you that we will get walloped.

 

BFTP

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

Don't get too excited if we see cold zonality forecast with -5 uppers, for most of us it won't deliver.

Living in Cumbria with a bit of height cold zonality can be excellent for snow but it's still a rare beast and even here -5c uppers on a north westerly will only bring snow to the fells above 400 meters, to get snow down close to sea level we really need uppers below -7c which is quite an ask of an airmass crossing the north Atlantic.

It does happen but not convinced yet that this is what awaits us in early February, having said that the end of this zombie weather can't come soon enough.

Andy

True to an extent if it's a showery set up need probably -7 uppers at least to deliver snow to low levels in a NW airflow..  but in frontal/trough situations not so the case as evidenced 28 Nov this year that was a polar maritime airstream with uppers less than -5 degrees, a slack airstream, dewpoints right side of 0 degrees and high lapse rate did the trick.. Evaporative cooling was allowed to set in and we had a couple of cms even with temps of 1 to 2 degrees. Snow forecasting depends on so many other factors.. 

Edited January 22, 2022 by damianslaw

[minus10]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

that is a monster.  I’ve been eyeing this period up for long time.  It’s still FI but a very newsworthy storm NW/SE anticipated with ‘concern’ in there, this would fit the bill.  It’s still FI but defo a period to focus on.
 

BFTP

Yes  , the key is at day 9 on this run the low is further south of greenland and deepens rapidly resulting in quite a storm as you say Blast. 

I know it is the gfs , only one run, over inflates lows,  etc but still hoping that one time it will actually be onto something with the regression of the high. Interesting to see where sits in with ens later. At the very least, more interesting to look at than the high fest...

 

Edited January 22, 2022 by minus10

[damianslaw]

GFS showing jetstream pushed south in time something haven't seen for a while.. colder polar maritime air increasingly showing its hand as we move into February. The trend continues to shift away from settled to much more unsettled and possibly increasingly colder.. note word colder not necessarily freezing cold..

[Staffmoorlands]

53 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

The trend continues to shift away from settled to much more unsettled and possibly increasingly colder.. note word colder not necessarily freezing cold..

For southern and central England the outlook is milder than the week just gone where we have seen sharp frosts and low maxes