Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[mulzy]

ECM is poor folks.  Let’s wait for the eps but nothing cold and wintry In the horizon (at least for most of lowland Britain).

[mulzy]

57 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

GFS showing jetstream pushed south in time something haven't seen for a while.. colder polar maritime air increasingly showing its hand as we move into February. The trend continues to shift away from settled to much more unsettled and possibly increasingly colder.. note word colder not necessarily freezing cold..

Colder (at 850 level) maritime air delivers little to most of the country.  We might as well keep the high - at least it will be dry with sunny and frosty conditions.

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

For southern and central England the outlook is milder than the week just gone where we have seen sharp frosts and low maxes

Longer term signals only.. and yes more so further north and in the reliable milder than the week just gone. Its longer term trends I'm looking at. ECM shows alot cold air just to our NW waiting to pounce into Feb..

[SqueakheartLW]

2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

that is a monster.  I’ve been eyeing this period up for long time.  It’s still FI but a very newsworthy storm NW/SE anticipated with ‘concern’ in there, this would fit the bill.  It’s still FI but defo a period to focus on.
 

BFTP

Was it you that said end of January into early February would be stormy? I know someone on here has said it several times.

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Was it you that said end of January into early February would be stormy? I know someone on here has said it several times.

Making up for 2 months of hardly any stormy weather.. unusual. 

[Kasim Awan]

19 hours ago, johnholmes said:

If that is so then it has changed since I was in the Met office. Mean==sum of max and min/2

 

Yeah that is an old method used purely for comparison purposes, modern observations allow for much more rigorous mean temp calculations but the use is stumped by the inability to then compare with the old data / method. The mean hourly temps added/24 method is a far better daily temp indicator. E.g. take 2 days both min of -5, max of 5 = 0,  but second day spends 20 hours at 5c and 4 hours at -5, vs first day 20 hours at -5 and 4 hours at 5, the mean temp using the old method would show no variability between these days, whereas the mean hourly mean method would. 

Edited January 22, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[Nick F]

34 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

For southern and central England the outlook is milder than the week just gone where we have seen sharp frosts and low maxes

Not particularly mild Mon, Tues, Weds in the south. My location below on Met Office website and UKV Mon & Tues. Think cloud cover making sure max temps don't rise too high.

 

North milder than the south.

Edited January 22, 2022 by Nick F

[johncam]

Dreadful.output and if it continues this winter is a busted flush 

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, johncam said:

Dreadful.output and if it continues this winter is a busted flush 

Such posts belong in moan thread, thank you. All dependent on perspective. Please elaborate in the moan thread if wish to not in here.

[johncam]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Such posts belong in moan thread, thank you. All dependent on perspective. Please elaborate in the moan thread if wish to not in here.

Sorry mate that's the way I see it if you haveadifferent perspective please elaborate 

[stodge]

Evening all

Baby steps this evening but the period of benign chill anticyclonic weather looks to have maybe another week before the HP withdraws SW into the Atlantic.

That will gradually open the door to LP moving down from the NW and, as the troughs align negatively into Europe, a swing of airflow toward a more PM source as we move into February.

12Z ECM at T+192 and 12Z JMA at T+204:

That would be a tad brisk. and perhaps a fraction premature - GFS OP has something similar a couple of days later.

From there it may well be the HP will try to build back but we'll see.

Trying to call February now is of course absurd but if your tentative prediction was more unsettled than January you'd probably be on a good thing.

 

[matty40s]

9 minutes ago, johncam said:

Sorry mate that's the way I see it if you haveadifferent perspective please elaborate 

You've already posted the same on the moan thread without any charts or evidence.

[mulzy]

Maybe, just maybe, tentative signs of better clusters in the extended eps.  AO trending negative in the extended.

Personally I think we may have to look east and north east - may not happen quickly but that is where I believe our best chances lie...

Edited January 22, 2022 by mulzy

[johnholmes]

46 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yeah that is an old method used purely for comparison purposes, modern observations allow for much more rigorous mean temp calculations but the use is stumped by the inability to then compare with the old data / method. The mean hourly temps added/24 method is a far better daily temp indicator. E.g. take 2 days both min of -5, max of 5 = 0,  but second day spends 20 hours at 5c and 4 hours at -5, vs first day 20 hours at -5 and 4 hours at 5, the mean temp using the old method would show no variability between these days, whereas the mean hourly mean method would. 

The 'old' system is the average of the absolute max and absolute min. As far as I am aware that is still the way WMO and all other national Met services work.

Correct me if I am wrong though.

[damianslaw]

11 minutes ago, johncam said:

Sorry mate that's the way I see it if you haveadifferent perspective please elaborate 

Entitled to opinion that's fine. Just read your post in moan thread and see you mean in terms of cold prospects. Granted the coming week not likely to offer much going off the models and if same synoptics saw rest of winter out then yes I would agree. However there is a suggestion of perhaps more in the way of polar air to start Feb at least.. may easily not verify but that would bring some colder possibly wintry weather to Scotland I would have thought. 

[stodge]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Maybe, just maybe, tentative signs of better clusters in the extended eps.  AO trending negative in the extended.

Personally I think we may have to look east and north east - may not happen quickly but that is where I believe our best chances lie...

Indeed - if we can get the trough into Scandinavia and the LP running NW-SE through the British isles we will always have a charge if there's a break allowing a sudden rise of heights to the NE - it's happened before in late winter and wouldn't be unusual.

I'm still of the view March will have some winter surprises but the time and nature of those a long way off.

My order of Northern Blocking has been confirmed for April and May (I'll get a text to confirm nearer the time)

[Cambrian]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

GFS showing jetstream pushed south in time something haven't seen for a while.. colder polar maritime air increasingly showing its hand as we move into February. The trend continues to shift away from settled to much more unsettled and possibly increasingly colder.. note word colder not necessarily freezing cold..

Yes, and not just the GFS. The 12z GEM shows the same trend - the jet stream flicking north / south with the passing of depressions but a general southward trend even before day 10, going south overall with each passing low. 

Jet stream at 168h - aligned west-east and weak, near the high pressure before the pattern change

 

At 192h - jet stream intensified and now aligned NW-SE, disrupted over the UK at the base of the low.

  
 

At 216h - the jet stream flicking north over the UK and Ireland as the high pushes north again before the next low approaches.

 
 

240h - buckling south again as the next low pushes down from the northwest, the jet stream well south of Iceland and extending down into the Balkans, the secondary disturbances running southeast into Eastern Europe.

 

And there’s plenty of colder air in the mix too, at 192h for example, alternating with milder interludes, more cold air on the way at 240h.
 

Increasingly unsettled, becoming rather cold in to the first week of February looks where we’re at - some milder days with rain, but also colder days with good prospects of upland snow, occasionally cold enough for wider events. 

Another point on the day 10 charts - if that setup transpires, with the little chunk of PV revolving just to our north, and the jet stream headed south, things could get very interesting from there. 

[johnholmes]

16 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The 'old' system is the average of the absolute max and absolute min. As far as I am aware that is still the way WMO and all other national Met services work.

Correct me if I am wrong though.

I'll message you Kasim, to stop clogging this thread-you seem to be correct, apologies

[johncam]

32 minutes ago, matty40s said:

You've already posted the same on the moan thread without any charts or evidence.

Not to be pedantic but we all look at the same model charts so where is the evidence of any prolonged cold spells 

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, mulzy said:

Maybe, just maybe, tentative signs of better clusters in the extended eps.  AO trending negative in the extended.

Personally I think we may have to look east and north east - may not happen quickly but that is where I believe our best chances lie...

Yes it does look like that into early February interesting that with strong vortex perhaps next week we will see more eye candy. Jet stream going further south I think that’s very likely much less settled.

Edited January 22, 2022 by Daniel*

[Lukesluckybunch]

Are we at the stage yet,where we are in danger of this winter being a right off..the last few runs of ECM gfs have being showing heights trying to build out west with a northwesterly flow developing.but nothing looks sustained and certain looking like 24h cooler/colder spells not a week or 2 cold period.the reason for this is the PV is remaining far too strong therefore not letting heights build towards Greenland etc.it really has been very frustrating and I'm not holding out much hope for the rest of winter I don't see anything turning up which will be sustained cold!

Edited January 22, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[Battleground Snow]

18 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Yes it does look like that into early February interesting that with strong vortex perhaps next week we will see more eye candy. Jet stream going further south I think that’s very likely much less settled.

Interesting that the GFS always seem to pick up a change before ECM past day 10, we want it to trend much more negative tho, but good to see some ensembles getting there.

[phil nw.]

Comments writing Winter off are really premature considering we are in January.

The daily charts including ens only really give an idea of a broad pattern out to 14 days and they do suggest the mean jet coming south and a colder trend in week 2.

Let's see how that develops before any temptation to write off the second half of Winter.

 

[Penrith Snow]

Come on guys, the signed change to cool zonality has got to be better than the boredom if a 4 week UK high, your never going to see a flake from that but at least with cold zonality everyone has a chance.

This UK high has only benefited the Greeks.

Andy

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Was it you that said end of January into early February would be stormy? I know someone on here has said it several times.

It ‘might’ be me .  Folks who say outputs are dreadful ‘I’m afraid’  aren’t looking at the developing bigger picture.  There’s no ‘imminent’ big freeze but the change is approaching and I believe a very cold ‘spell’ in Feb is coming after the pattern changing storm/s

 

BFTP

Edited January 22, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST