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Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

Community Team

By Community Team
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread and use the winter chat thread for non-model related discussion.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

For less of a cold-slanted look at the models, please head over to the alternate model discussion. 

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Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Day 10 at least open to the possibility of height rises to the north east

ECH1-240 (23).gif

That looks very good and It's very similar to the UKMO at 144h 

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted

This is not bad at all at day 10 on ECM:

24jan12EC-240.thumb.png.f01c9f39ed07f69901fbc59e0b0d8e89.png

It was not as good as 0z, around Jan 31/Feb 1 with that potential Northerly, but definitely better at day 10.

Low heights into Eastern Europe, renewed Atlantic ridging with some WAA, Siberian heights creeping closer.
A scenario that we have seen on many GEFS runs in FI the past week.

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

Ecm is much better tonight days 8 to 10. I'm looking for an appreciable drop in the 850's in the extended ens when they update later. 

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SqueakheartLW Accomplished

SqueakheartLW

Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
Posted

Should have been buried under 44.9cm of snow by the end of today if this run had come off

That was one decent GFS 12z member back on the 10th.

Instead we have had no precipitation of any kind and an almost constant high pressure bore fest instead.

At least the GFS mean is seeing a possible chance of snow early next week if we fall lucky

image.thumb.png.d0fd5c320e67bee5bcaae7000bc63d8c.pngimage.thumb.png.940e9c11b6fcce781e2f71061355c614.png

If this chilly NW wind can turn more northerly then maybe just a chance and if it sneaks in on the 31st then I'll be able to tick the box of a snowfall every winter month so far.

Got a bit of snow between 27th and 28th November that settled on the ground even if it didn't stick for that long then got my December snowfall on the 2nd. January still has a few days left to tick the snow box for the month but will we get it or not?

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Anthony Burden Seasoned

Anthony Burden

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
Posted

Evening all,As I stated in my earlier blog some interesting weather possible with cold a strong possibility around the beginning of February some of the white stuff possible in places,This week a couple of milder days but mostly average to slightly below.ECM playing with the idea of northern blocking at 240 hrs need that to continue the theme in future runs.

 

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North-Easterly Blast Community Regular

North-Easterly Blast

Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Should have been buried under 44.9cm of snow by the end of today if this run had come off

That was one decent GFS 12z member back on the 10th.

Instead we have had no precipitation of any kind and an almost constant high pressure bore fest instead.

At least the GFS mean is seeing a possible chance of snow early next week if we fall lucky

image.thumb.png.d0fd5c320e67bee5bcaae7000bc63d8c.pngimage.thumb.png.940e9c11b6fcce781e2f71061355c614.png

If this chilly NW wind can turn more northerly then maybe just a chance and if it sneaks in on the 31st then I'll be able to tick the box of a snowfall every winter month so far.

Got a bit of snow between 27th and 28th November that settled on the ground even if it didn't stick for that long then got my December snowfall on the 2nd. January still has a few days left to tick the snow box for the month but will we get it or not?

 If that GEFS mean verified exactly as shown a week today, I would say that there is a good chance that higher ground (the Pennines) would see snow falling, but for lower levels (under 1,000 feet a.s.l) I would say falling snow would be unlikely.

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

This is not bad at all at day 10 on ECM:

24jan12EC-240.thumb.png.f01c9f39ed07f69901fbc59e0b0d8e89.png

It was not as good as 0z, around Jan 31/Feb 1 with that potential Northerly, but definitely better at day 10.

Low heights into Eastern Europe, renewed Atlantic ridging with some WAA, Siberian heights creeping closer.
A scenario that we have seen on many GEFS runs in FI the past week.

I actually think that days 8 and 9 on tonight's run look much better than this morning's run. Less of a marked topple into France which then leads on to the increased amplification north eastwards at day 10.

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Snow row for London showing 17/30 early next week, decent signal for at least a flurry 

2A4706E2-BD80-4DD1-A2E9-BCA72B683DA2.png

Yes next Monday's gefs charts show a little cold snap from the north west,snow for some as the cold front heads south i would think.It ties in fairly close to the gfs operational run at that point

The ecm operational chart on the right also shows cold air from the nw.

1156034572_viewimage(14).thumb.png.d4ace23c088927b5cdb183238254d7c1.pngecmt850.168 (1).png

so maybe a 2 day cold interlude.That seems the best on offer shorter term but at least quite a few would have a chance to see at least some snow fall. it will not be long lasting as the Atlantic jet by then is starting to track further south and the next system would soon roll in.

 

Edited by phil nw.
corrected image
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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
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Posted (edited)

Good support for the ECM det at 10 day from the eps.  The extended eps *could* be fun....

Edit:  Not quite but an improvement on this morning so baby steps and all that - need to check the clusters for more clues.

Edited by mulzy
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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I actually think that days 8 and 9 on tonight's run look much better than this morning's run. Less of a marked topple into France which then leads on to the increased amplification north eastwards at day 10.

Correct. The runs that have more ridging at day 5-8 are less amplified later on and vice versa.

I'd gladly sacrifice some slush on February 1 for potential Scandinavian developments later on, but I think we'll have to wait and see for a while to find out how things will really work out. Although a sudden and quick turn for the better would be very welcome!

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
14 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

This is not bad at all at day 10 on ECM:

24jan12EC-240.thumb.png.f01c9f39ed07f69901fbc59e0b0d8e89.png

It was not as good as 0z, around Jan 31/Feb 1 with that potential Northerly, but definitely better at day 10.

Low heights into Eastern Europe, renewed Atlantic ridging with some WAA, Siberian heights creeping closer.
A scenario that we have seen on many GEFS runs in FI the past week.

Dear God day 10 again...are you serious!

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted
12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Trend from today - a more amplified flow, yesterday the models trended flatter..

Indeed.  the UKMO-GM leading the way....

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O'Maille80 Enthusiast

O'Maille80

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
Posted
23 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Dear God day 10 again...are you serious!

To be fair it's day 10 on ECM not GFS, bit more hope.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Hi all,...i quite like the trends i have been seeing into fl in the last few days IMO with the gfs/gefs especially toying with the idea of heights building to our NE

here is the ECM at day ten vs the gfs for the same time,the ECM ironically is more amplified than the gfs

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.913bc7cc26c1e329dac10e0e4f0aa8fa.gifgfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.b0569aec940800ce3ef47540274a42d1.png

and look what the gfs produces out to day 16 so maybe the ECM would produce a better synoptic pattern like the gfs/gefs has been showing for the last few days,...fl i know but the trends have been there,also look at those warm dam numbers getting into Scandi and the Urals,a perfect way to put pressure on the PV

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.207eee1695e1da77e6ad1f224ed1f309.pnggfsnh-4-384.thumb.png.c8f80feca11e44731ee1cb9b64afc46b.png

this smacks huge potential and with the strat pv split at day 16 at 10 hpa you never know...

gfsnh-10-384.thumb.png.4461154f49c39e13750bb9836c088f46.pngNH_HGT_10mb_384.thumb.gif.94e4b53c7cc2404cee880a5e7674d998.gif

 

 

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted

Well, with six clusters at 120h-168h you could say the jury is still out on the exact day 5-8 proceedings.

24jan12EPS-120.thumb.png.c3cd7a63fd3d1ee4e5fed7c48666809e.png

In the extended 264h-360h there are three clusters.

1) More UK High (sorry!) 19 members.
2) Scandinavian High with potential reward sooner. 18 members.
3) Low heights into Europe, Atlantic amplification + Ural High with potential reward later. 14 members.

24jan12EPS-264.thumb.png.2b2054f3b6209eba2386b45ac8e9550e.png

At least it keeps the interest alive.

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

Perhaps a Winters tease in about a weeks time, yes a week!, gfs and ecm completely different at day ten, as one would expect, Ecm interesting at that stage ,gfs . To be honest a big pattern change is inevitable, its not If.......but When???  

h850t850eu-54.webp

h850t850eu-55.webp

ecmt850.168-9.png

ecmt850.240-16.png

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, Don said:

Wonder if the dreaded EC46 is going to provide any hope this evening?!

nope

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, Don said:

Ha, there's a surprise! 

it jst flattens out with a bartlett all the way until March.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

it jst flattens out with a bartlett all the way until March.

As bad as it can get at this time of year!

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