Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[sukayuonsensnow]

4 hours ago, jules216 said:

Somebody enlight me please. How is it possible that seasonal models nearly all got this January wrong. All were in December singing with SC/EE high pressure,yet I am on 17th! Day of cold spell, see my weather station data. And this EPS to see of January. IT Has Been a winter of very low skill levels from weeks 2-3 on the models big time.

Are you referring to the seasonal being wrong for UK?

As of the time of writing I would say it has been pretty good so far. Most of the winter interest was always going to be in February, and for me at the beginning of the winter I set my expectations low for December and January. 

Take for example TWO's seasonal forecast: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Their December forecast was pretty much correct including the Christmas/New Year period, most of the other longer range forecasts weren't sure and were going for a colder spell around the festive period. Even the MO kept changing their outlooks.

January so far has been mostly correct, although I think it will end up being a slightly milder than average month due to the very start of the month (would be hard to forecast a record mild New Year a month in advance), and drier than average apart from a few localised spots in NW Scotland. The descriptions match up for the most part, and looks like we are going to lose some influence of high pressure towards the end of the month. I don't think the wintry showers in E/SE came off though.

February is the interesting month. Starting off mild or rather mild with mixed weather - which looks a possibility going by the current models. Then a transition to a cold spell for a time with snow risk and severe frosts for southern and eastern parts. Less cold and wetter in the west. A mild or very mild end to the month, which most long range forecasts seem to be in agreement about for the end of February.

There is potential for there to be a cold spell in the first week of February (week commencing 7th) although uncertainty on the transition, source, and how long it will last. It could be an easterly or northerly, but it could also be with PM air that a slider low approaches and brings snow to central, southern and eastern parts in that week, being rain further west and southwest (hence the less cold and wetter at times in the west). Depending on how deep the snow is this could lead to severe frosts for a time where the deepest snow falls from this event or events. With snow depths of 15-25cm locally and clear skies overnight a severe frost isn't out of the realms of possibility even with PM air.

Even if this happens I doubt February will be a colder than average month, maybe average at coldest, and possibly above average temperatures depending on how cold it will be and how mild it will be at the end of the month.

I also doubt any significant snow will occur for most in the Spring if the milder weather end of February continued.

The only fly in the ointment for the seasonal forecasts was a leniency towards a potential SSW mid-late January, which probably won't happen. How that will affect the weather for the remainder of the winter is TBD.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

UKMO 12z is a stonker!

[mountain shadow]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

UKMO 12z is a stonker!

I presume you're being sarcastic?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

I presume you're being sarcastic?

no it looked good at that point, like it would deliver a N'ly, however the GFS was similar and turned out crap.

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

no it looked good at that point, like it would deliver a N'ly, however the GFS was similar and turned out crap.

The bowling ball low exiting the US will flatten any ridge attempt very quickly I think.

The 168 later on will give us an idea.

[Ali1977]

30 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

UKMO 12z is a stonker!

putting them together the UKMO looks a little better than the GFS, slightly better ridging around Labrador and the LP now quite as big. Hopefully we can drag the northerlies West a little to bring in more chances of some snow for more people!! 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 hours ago, That ECM said:

Where are you seeing this HP backing west? Looks like it topples east. Or are you suggesting it moves west initially to allow a north northwest flow before moving east? As per 06z?

 

 

 

The change today has come as short as 29th/30th.  Way different to yesterday but not as good as day before.  I don’t expect longevity here but a repeat scenario.  Toppler?  That’s maybe what it is but I think we’ll see a more beefy one with a reload.  This HP just ‘sitting there’ for me isn’t the right direction.  
 

BFTP

[Ali1977]

I can no longer Add Files in the box below from my IPHONE, any ideas? I have to copy and paste!! It stops me posting loads of charts that’ll never verify I suppose

[MattTarrant]

38 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The bowling ball low exiting the US will flatten any ridge attempt very quickly I think.

The 168 later on will give us an idea.

Just so everybody knows, you can now view both the 156 and 168 hours charts for the UKMO on meteociel. Just click on 0.1° resolution option . 

[CoxR]

 

Potential split mid Feb?

[johncam]

The GFS is a horror show , don't think you could draw worse charts 

[Downburst]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Look how dry GFS 06z is out to the second week of February, south of the Border

The current EWP is about 33mm for this month

I know, walking this weekend and driving in the country site on dusty roads, in the margins etc. Very un January like to say the least. 2019, 2020 were similar, very dry, 2021 was very wet. Strange things happening to the weather, others have said it but so often we have very dry and very wet months, anecdotal at this stage but might be a long wave pattern establishing, this month a good example

[chris55]

UKMO 12z best for a while

Some very cold air bottled up to the north!

If only the ridge could gain some traction and build north we’d be in business. No VWAA though so would likely topple at 192. 

[Fozfoster]

10 minutes ago, johncam said:

The GFS is a horror show , don't think you could draw worse charts 

Im going to try and help the cause WINTERS OVER !!!!!!!!! LOL

[Battleground Snow]

13 minutes ago, CoxR said:

 

Potential split mid Feb?

That chart looks good, but if there is no coupling at the moment, I'm not sure how this would impact timescales further below?

Somebody with more knowledge can hopefully chip in.

Gem is pretty cold next Monday also

[johnholmes]

3 hours ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Are you referring to the seasonal being wrong for UK?

As of the time of writing I would say it has been pretty good so far. Most of the winter interest was always going to be in February, and for me at the beginning of the winter I set my expectations low for December and January. 

Take for example TWO's seasonal forecast: https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Their December forecast was pretty much correct including the Christmas/New Year period, most of the other longer range forecasts weren't sure and were going for a colder spell around the festive period. Even the MO kept changing their outlooks.

January so far has been mostly correct, although I think it will end up being a slightly milder than average month due to the very start of the month (would be hard to forecast a record mild New Year a month in advance), and drier than average apart from a few localised spots in NW Scotland. The descriptions match up for the most part, and looks like we are going to lose some influence of high pressure towards the end of the month. I don't think the wintry showers in E/SE came off though.

February is the interesting month. Starting off mild or rather mild with mixed weather - which looks a possibility going by the current models. Then a transition to a cold spell for a time with snow risk and severe frosts for southern and eastern parts. Less cold and wetter in the west. A mild or very mild end to the month, which most long range forecasts seem to be in agreement about for the end of February.

There is potential for there to be a cold spell in the first week of February (week commencing 7th) although uncertainty on the transition, source, and how long it will last. It could be an easterly or northerly, but it could also be with PM air that a slider low approaches and brings snow to central, southern and eastern parts in that week, being rain further west and southwest (hence the less cold and wetter at times in the west). Depending on how deep the snow is this could lead to severe frosts for a time where the deepest snow falls from this event or events. With snow depths of 15-25cm locally and clear skies overnight a severe frost isn't out of the realms of possibility even with PM air.

Even if this happens I doubt February will be a colder than average month, maybe average at coldest, and possibly above average temperatures depending on how cold it will be and how mild it will be at the end of the month.

I also doubt any significant snow will occur for most in the Spring if the milder weather end of February continued.

The only fly in the ointment for the seasonal forecasts was a leniency towards a potential SSW mid-late January, which probably won't happen. How that will affect the weather for the remainder of the winter is TBD.

 

I reckon as good a summary of the possibles and what has gone as any I've seen

[CoxR]

8 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

That chart looks good, but if there is no coupling at the moment, I'm not sure how this would impact timescales further below?

Somebody with more knowledge can hopefully chip in.

Gem is pretty cold next Monday also

To my untrained eye, the configuration of the troposphere and stratosphere doesn't look too dissimilar to that at the same stage in Feb 2018 - and two weeks or so later, the BFTE occurred. Though I'm not sure to what extent the 2018 BFTE was troposphere led i.e. from the  high amplitude phase 7 MJO, or stratosphere led?

February 2018 500hpa: 

 

February 2018 10hpa: 

 

GFS 12z 500 hpa:

 

GFS 12z 10 hpa:

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, CoxR said:

To my untrained eye, the configuration of the troposphere and stratosphere doesn't look too dissimilar to that at the same stage in Feb 2018 - and two weeks or so later, the BFTE occurred. Though I'm not sure to what extent the 2018 BFTE was troposphere led i.e. from the  high amplitude phase 7 MJO, or stratosphere led?

February 2018 500hpa: 

 

February 2018 10hpa: 

 

GFS 12z 500 hpa:

 

GFS 12z 10 hpa:

Nice comparison, and shows how the Canadian pv can still be overcome fairly quickly, we did have massive MJO event back then though, atm it's in cod, but could change in 15 days

[minus10]

I think that this gfs 12z is the worst run i have seen from a cold perspective. Truly bad, although good if you want to avoid the cold.

Yet again, downgrades

 

A substantial amount of hp controlling the game. Not an expert at the bigger picture but how is it that the jetstream is just always looping to the north in this part of the world ?....vortex driven i suppose..

[Frostbite1980]

12 minutes ago, minus10 said:

I think that this gfs 12z is the worst run i have seen from a cold perspective. Truly bad, although good if you want to avoid the cold.

Yet again, downgrades

 

A substantial amount of hp controlling the game. Not an expert at the bigger picture but how is it that the jetstream is just always looping to the north in this part of the world ?....vortex driven i suppose..

Turkey and Greece pinching the cold and snow once again....on a serious note though SE Europe are shaping up for a very cold winter 

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, minus10 said:

I think that this gfs 12z is the worst run i have seen from a cold perspective. Truly bad, although good if you want to avoid the cold.

Yet again, downgrades

 

A substantial amount of hp controlling the game. Not an expert at the bigger picture but how is it that the jetstream is just always looping to the north in this part of the world ?....vortex driven i suppose..

GFS has churned out high pressure domination for weeks now.. never known it to do so for as long as it has been. Typically it defaults to Atlantic zonal.. yet this winter it has been the least progressive of the main models. Mind that's the pattern we've had a completely dead Atlantic despite a strong PV. It's an odd winter.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Well it appears after the poor gfs and it's ens also which were total dire!now we have the ECM which appears to be following in the same way!there appears to be no end in sight to this rubbish weather!

[Quantock]

Control and Operational on the very mildest side of the GEFS ensemble range from 192 hrs...

[Ali1977]

Snow row for London showing 17/30 early next week, decent signal for at least a flurry 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Well it appears after the poor gfs and it's ens also which were total dire!now we have the ECM which appears to be following in the same way!there appears to be no end in sight to this rubbish weather!

Amazing how fast time runs out for winter!