Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[Dunstable Snow]

2 minutes ago, minus10 said:

I am not walking up that garden path again (he says) , except for work purposes. Hell, why am i even looking...

Agree - there is a great post up the page that talks about -8 850s being watered down to -5/-6 as day 10 becomes day 1. This will I’m sure be another example.

[Staffmoorlands]

Hopefully, the UKMO 144 chart this evening for next Thursday/Friday will verify and we can enjoy at least a temporary spell of wintry weather. Probably a good covering for higher ground.

 

[Ali1977]

Well there’s zero support for the UKMO 144 within the GEFS at 144, and these zero support for the GFS on at 240. Basically there’s 0 support for any cold at any point for anywhere away from Scottish hills - which pretty much sums up the METO text.
 

Ive even resorted to watching the CBS Boston live news online - they are defo having something is coldies would wish for  

Edited January 29, 2022 by Ali1977

[mountain shadow]

27 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well there’s zero support for the UKMO 144 within the GEFS at 144, and these zero support for the GFS on at 240. Basically there’s 0 support for any cold at any point for anywhere away from Scottish hills - which pretty much sums up the METO text.
 

Ive even resorted to watching the CBS Boston live news online - they are defo having something is coldies would wish for  

No doubt the ECM will be a half way house.

That East Coast US storm is virtually impossible over here now.

[Staffmoorlands]

52 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

No doubt the ECM will be a half way house.

That East Coast US storm is virtually impossible over here now.

Sadly, the ECM is poor tonight. All hopes are on the UKMO being correct tonight

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192, and this is the end for me:

There was a bit of a chance of a resurgence of possibilities, even if only from the NW, which would have benefited northern parts not the south, but even that is gone now.

I’m sorry to say this, but you can’t really argue with it if you are like me an avid follower of winter NWP charts, that for southern England, a proper snow event is now probably a 1 in 3 year event at the very best, better for the north of course.  And this year, despite exiting solar minimum, EQBO, nothing nasty stirring in the Indian Ocean, has been a total dud.  I’m sure I’ll be back with enthusiasm in November,  but it will be tempered, and probably wholly focussed on the chances of a SSW next year.  That we came nowhere near one this year, is telling.  When was the last really decent snowy spell that covered much of the country NOT due to a SSW (Dec 2010 is the answer).  

Meanwhile, see some of you summer fans in due course, as the indicators for that season start to take shape in spring…

All the best, 

Mike

[snowray]

I bet the 18z will be a good run, out at D10 as usual, just to add insult to injury!

[mulzy]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192, and this is the end for me:

There was a bit of a chance of a resurgence of possibilities, even if only from the NW, which would have benefited northern parts not the south, but even that is gone now.

I’m sorry to say this, but you can’t really argue with it if you are like me an avid follower of winter NWP charts, that for southern England, a proper snow event is now probably a 1 in 3 year event at the very best, better for the north of course.  And this year, despite exiting solar minimum, EQBO, nothing nasty stirring in the Indian Ocean, has been a total dud.  I’m sure I’ll be back with enthusiasm in November,  but it will be tempered, and probably wholly focussed on the chances of a SSW next year.  That we came nowhere near one this year, is telling.  When was the last really decent snowy spell that covered much of the country NOT due to a SSW (Dec 2010 is the answer).  

Meanwhile, see some of you summer fans in due course, as the indicators for that season start to take shape in spring…

All the best, 

Mike

Feel the frustration Mike but we can’t know for sure that ‘winter is over’.  The odds are against any lowland snow for the south but we can’t categorically rule it out. Keep the faith for a few more weeks I’d say.

[carinthian]

12 hours ago, carinthian said:

Some support from ECM with the UKMO extended. The day 10 chart below shows quite a big difference in the NH pattern compared to GFS. Lets hope ECM is on to something for you guys as the op does show some retrogress of the high taking place.

C

As expected ECM reverts back to bland zonal with a added prospect of dreaded Euro High in the mix. . However, UKMO extended holds firm and has not flipped as usual this evening.  Below chart from UKMO looks fairly cold. 

C

[Lukesluckybunch]

well the the ECM was a complete horror show! days 9 and 10 strong heights to the south,resulting in a southerly flow!

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,still different ideas on the way forward from the charts key issue cold Zonal or Azores high returns after short changeable theme.Not a settled issue by any means at least 48 hrs to go before the fog clears and a better idea of. Where February is going fingers crossed still interest for cold lovers.

[Penrith Snow]

Terrible ECM and GFS tonight that really couldn’t be any worse, they think it’s all over it is now!

UKMO still has a brief Northerly but even Exeter doesn’t believe it.

This winter is increasingly reminding me of a slightly cooler version of 1988/89

That too had a cold snowy spell in November but then mild weather either wet or dry dominated till March.

Cold wintry weather arrived in April which was a cold, wet month with loads of ‘if only it was January’ charts.

May too was awful but summer arrived in June.

Its not pattern matching to imagine a similar outcome in 2022.

Andy

[Singularity]

So here we go - increasing signal for the MJO to wake up in phase 3 or 4 and then propagate eastward,

If it wakes up in 3, a mid-Atlantic ridge attempting a -NAO (but likely being held short by the vigorous polar vortex) is likely to feature at times in opening 3rd Feb, otherwise a high across NW Europe including southern UK will tend to dominate. Current NWP modelling seems to be caught between two minds and oddly favours the latter followed by the former.

This implies that either the northerly attempt around 8th Feb will also prove to be a red herring, or the NW Europe high later next week is a coincidental feature and we'll see a mild-cold-mild sequence characterise the first half of Feb.

Beyond then, if the MJO propagates across the Pacific, AAM will climb into positive territory and blocking highs will be increasingly on the cards during 2nd half Feb. Whether those are high-latitude or mid-latitude will again depend on that pesky old polar vortex. The MJO sequence and rising AAM should force an assault on the stratospheric polar vortex but at this time we can't really tell whether that will be reflected away, as have all the prior ones so far this winter, or penetrate the polar vortex circulation and bring about substantial weakening. Of late, GFS has been flipping between the two scenarios.

Even if its reflected, seasonal trends will favour higher latitude positions to blocking highs in final third Feb when compared to those seen most of January.

Overall, my sense that the spring warmup will be delayed this year continues to build - about which I have mixed feelings, to be honest!

[O'Maille80]

Is ECM day 10 really that bad a chart? Looks chilly to me.

Edited January 29, 2022 by O'Maille80

[IDO]

4 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

Is ECM day 10 really that bad a chart? Looks chilly to me.

ECM D10 op charts have proven worthless much of the winter, and not worth the time of day. Best to ignore them and refer to the mean for sensibility. Looking at the mean, again we see it is as an outlier, and therefore not helpful:

Manchester>

D10 mean> 

Looking at the D8-16 GEFS mean, as you were, zonal with the south favoured by the high >>>

 

[O'Maille80]

6 minutes ago, IDO said:

ECM D10 op charts have proven worthless much of the winter, and not worth the time of day. Best to ignore them and refer to the mean for sensibility. Looking at the mean, again we see it is as an outlier, and therefore not helpful:

Manchester>

D10 mean> 

Looking at the D8-16 GEFS mean, as you were, zonal with the south favoured by the high >>>

 

Does that mean day 9 was an outlier too? If thats the case the whole run beyond day 5 should be taken with a pinch of salt.  

[blizzard81]

A decent downward trend in temps in the ecm ext ens with the control going cold. The best in the extended for quite some time 

[SqueakheartLW]

If the GFS extended is to be believed the trend is clear, above average temperatures are very likely as we head through February. Apart from a colder blip around the 5th it seems we are trending above average right up to early March and many of the recent GFS extended runs have shown the same thing.

We'll have to hope this is wrong but I'm not so confident when the ECM is more or less confirming the same trend over a shorter time scale with the brief below average blip then generally above average after that.

Colder members

At least there's sort of consistency between GEM and GFS here with their coldest members at +384 hours away.

The GFS (B)easterly     P04

The GEM Northerly     P15

 

A cold start to meteorological spring

Here's a nice cold start to spring from the GFS extended P28

[blizzard81]

A swing back towards the ukmo solution from the icon this evening compared to this morning's run. A good sign. 

[blizzard81]

18 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

A swing back towards the ukmo solution from the icon this evening compared to this morning's run. A good sign. 

 

The same goes for the gfs. Good trends towards ukmo. 

[Beanz]

The signals from the GfS this evening are interesting, but the ECM is having none of it - flat out mild dross, I’m with Mike on this, I can’t see this changing now.  
 

Edited January 29, 2022 by Mapantz
Original quote removed

[Uncertainty]

I have to say, looking through the extended Eps, that the outlook could be so much worse… (obviously it could be infinitely better also!)

Surprisingly few ++NAO members. Though unsurprisingly few HLBers either.

If the outlook was doomed to go all Feb 2020 on us, you’d expect more ‘blue on the board’ on the clusters. Though, for balance, the GEFS are flatter throughout.

I’m not convinced on the present relevance of those Nina mjo composites in phase 3 so I shan’t post them but there is significant research indicating phase 3 can herald an SSW 25 odd days later, most likely if there is a full progression to the pacific over the intervening days. the EC 46 backed off the late Feb warming on the latest run but the hints remain.

It’s not ideal but with a qtr that would bring early-Mid March into play. Storm Emma / 2013 show that it can still deliver. 

So look out for a big loop in those mjo plots over the coming weeks. Hopefully we don’t get too battered in the meantime!
 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2022 by Mapantz
Original quote removed

[Staffmoorlands]

Not much of interest in the 18z GFS apart from a brief cold snap this coming Thursday and Friday

[BelgianBlizzard]

50 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The same goes for the gfs. Good trends towards ukmo. 

Bit I still expect the ukmo to backtrack in the morning. A move to gfs and ecm instead of the other way around

[BelgianBlizzard]

And it's not the vortex that's the problem... It's that bloody high!